Senator Ashley Judd for 2014? I wouldn’t bet on it
Let’s narrow it down further, to only races in which the incumbent ran for re-election. Except for Georgia’s Saxby Chambliss and Nebraska’s Mike Johanns, all Republican incumbents are running for re-election, at least at this point. The incumbents include, of course, Mitch McConnell, who has to defend his seat in Kentucky.
Of these senators, only one incumbent out of 63 has gone down since 1982: Lauch Faircloth, in 1998. For those who don’t remember, Faircloth was a protege of the very conservative Jesse Helms. He lost to John Edwards, who was then a trial lawyer.
Without controlling for incumbency, the odds get even worse for the president’s party when he can’t break a 60% approval rating. Since 1982, there have been 57 elections in which the opposition held a seat in a state more partial to their party’s presidential candidate than the national vote. The opposition party lost none of those 57 elections.
None of these numbers should comfort Democrat challengers in 2014. The chances for any Democrat to win a red state (or for a Republican to win in a blue one) have decreased dramatically over the past 20 years. If you’re challenging a candidate from the opposition party in a midterm, your chances drop to around 4%. If you’re also facing an incumbent, your odds inch even closer to nil.
Blowback
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Biden/Judd 2016
msmveritas on March 15, 2013 at 9:41 PM
Yep, and don’t be counting on the House to go D either. 0bama and Democrats win by polarizing young, urban voters against the white middle class suburbs. Too many seats the D’s want to steal are full of voters who have been called racistsexisthomophobicfatcattheocraticfascists these past five plus years.
And with the outer-ring suburbs not even sharing a county with their central city anymore, the usual ACORN tactics hit a wall. If some org like True the Vote comes up to the Biggcity County Board of Elections with a list of fraudulent registrations in their county, the overwhelmingly Democrat Board of Elections, just *sigh* won’t have the time to investigate these claims before the election (oh darn). They do the same to Burb County, and the claims *will* be investigated.
Sekhmet on March 15, 2013 at 9:44 PM
The article assesses Judd’s chances for winning not, as the headline says, for running. Just because her chances for winning are next to nil, doesn’t mean the chances for her running are so and I’d bet on her doing so if she’s still considering it in the summer.
Dusty on March 15, 2013 at 9:56 PM
Biden/Fluke 2016
Schadenfreude on March 16, 2013 at 12:45 AM
Her ability to be out of touch with reality is truly remarkable. Whether she thinks she can win and whether she actually has a snowball’s chance in hell of doing so are two very different things.
Gingotts on March 16, 2013 at 4:00 AM
If she runs? She’ll win.
happytobehere on March 16, 2013 at 7:04 AM
Celebrity candidates don’t always do as well as some expect they will, even when they’ve spent many years in the public eye and feel quite comfortable in front of large groups and t.v. cameras.
Remember Caroline Kennedy? We were told that all she had to do was consent to run for the Senate, and she’d be unstoppable.
Didn’t quite turn out that way.
AZCoyote on March 16, 2013 at 9:24 AM