Do Democrats really have young voters locked up?
The most common diagnosis is that Republicans are just too conservative for young voters. But I wouldn’t worry about, if I were a Republican …
3. The GOP issue isn’t the youth – it’s everyone
Mitt Romney did worse across pretty much all age cohorts compared to President Bush in 2004.
Bush only won 43% of the 18-24 year-old cohort. There wasn’t much of an outcry about Bush’s young voter problem because he won. Two elections later, Romney won about 40% of the now 26-32 year-olds. This 3pt drop was entirely consistent with a national Republican drop of 3.5pt from Bush’s 50.7% to Romney’s 47.2%.
Other age groups are consistent with that effect. Bush won 53% of the then 30-44 year-old vote. This time, Romney nabbed 50% of the now 40-49 year-old cohort, which again matches the Republican drop of 3pt nationally. Same with the then 40-49 year-old vote, where Bush grabbed 54% and Romney walked away with 52% of the now 50-64 year-old cohort.
None of this is too surprising. As I wrote last week, age cohorts tend to remain at the same level of partisanship relative to the mean. A cohort’s “liberalism” or “conservatism” is dependent on the success of the presidential administration they come of age under. The now 26-32 year-olds came of age during the not too successful Bush administration and pretty solid Clinton years.
Blowback
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Why do we(including Allahpundit and Ed who should know better) keep pretending that there is a “youth” vote? There is only an ethnic vote…
Romney won the white youth vote by a large margin right after McCain lost it.
ninjapirate on February 27, 2013 at 4:43 PM
Does habeas corpus mean nothing?
steebo77 on February 27, 2013 at 4:45 PM
Not yet.
But soon.
We will all be locked up one way or another.
Locked up TO vote for them, or Locked AWAY for NOT voting for them.
LegendHasIt on February 27, 2013 at 4:46 PM
Yeah, in the basement. And Bill Clinton’s mouth is watering.
The Rogue Tomato on February 27, 2013 at 4:47 PM
Wait, I thought Obama just released them from the detention centers.
portlandon on February 27, 2013 at 4:51 PM
Those parasites that you are so afraid of cannot get of their bed in the morning let alone plan an armed takeover of people who are vastly superior to them on very level… Of course not to mention that 70% of the military vote Republican and 90% of the military officers vote Republicans…
Are you afraid of Tiroon and Shaneek? LOL…
mnjg on February 27, 2013 at 4:55 PM
That is exactly true… It comes down to the RACE factor… Why do you think that white liberals are always so angry and frustrated despite that they won the Presidency and the Senate?… Because 60% of Whites did not vote for them… For the white liberals the other races that they despise so much are only a voting block who vote on elections day and then they want them to go back to the sh*tholes where they live and never to be heard again from until the next elections day… They give the welfare check and in return they vote for them and that is it… As long as they are not winning a majority of whites they believe that they are not winning… That is how the white liberals think, they are the ultimate racists…
mnjg on February 27, 2013 at 5:00 PM
As someone who just graduated from college, I’d say its a little more complicated than whether young people are naturally predisposed to one party or another.
The big issue where the GOP kills itself with young people is gay rights. In my College Republicans group, I’d say roughly 75-80% of the members were supportive of equal legal recognition of gay couples, be that marriage or civil unions. That’s among young Republicans. That’s a worldview issue and it won’t change over time with very many people.
The good news is that I believe that a good chunk of them will get woken up by the real world in other areas. They will have bills to pay and see that big chunk of money Uncle Sam is taking out of their paycheck each month. Some will realize what a massive screwjob Obamacare is for young people (once they turn 26, that is). The ones that are awake will come to see that life under Obama isn’t going to be all kittens and unicorns like they were told.
If I could broadly map out the average young adult’s political orientation, I’d say that it’s fiscally centrist and socially center-left. The social views won’t change over time, but I suspect the fiscal ones will. That still doesn’t make them a natural fit for the GOP, but it doesn’t make them unreachable either. The GOP really has a branding problem among young people. It’s seen as the party of old white racist rich people who hate science and go to church every day. The libs and their allies in the media have done well in that area.
LukeinNE on February 27, 2013 at 5:03 PM
The Left has the brainwashing industry (schools, news media, and entertainment) pretty well locked up.
RBMN on February 27, 2013 at 5:26 PM
A conservative leader will come – “hello – Dr Carson?”
jake-the-goose on February 27, 2013 at 5:31 PM
Success??!?
If it were the “success” of a presidential administration, we wouldn’t be talking about an ascendant Democratic republic.
I guess “success” has to be re-defined–like everything in the Age of Obama–as successful “messaging” by the volunteer propaganda squad.
And to top off this economic miasma, the prime “success” of the Democratic monopoly was the unaffordable Affordable Care Act.
Axeman on February 27, 2013 at 5:44 PM
That’s a sensible view. Then why pick it as your hill to die on? If it’s going to be erased with a majority that doesn’t think its so, its emotionalism that prefers the dictators who will ram Soda Reforms and social changes down people’s throats rather than check the slow progress of the people’s referendum.
It’s evidence of how bad a state we’re in that people will prefer unsound politics to those that they believe will naturally change with time. And for that to throw in with people who argue that Nobody cares about our Social Compact and the fundamental definition of and Republic–the gay marriage thing makes you more liberal, everything else doesn’t make you more conservative.
Axeman on February 27, 2013 at 5:52 PM
Remember how the Ohio National Guard opened fire on Vietnam protestors at Kent State? Of course no one casts a sympathetic light on the guards who had to obey commands and open fire… the four victims became political martyrs. And what else did they do besides riot in Kent’s Main Street and burn down the ROTC building? Exactly.
Considering that this generation blindly follows a charismatic leader as it is, anything is possible. As the old saying goes, “idle hands are the Devil’s workshop.”
Do NOT discount the ulterior motives of the Socialists.
Myron Falwell on February 27, 2013 at 5:55 PM
You need to read ninjapirate’s post and absorb what he said. When you lose the elites (and the elites-to-be), you lose the war — and the underclass that votes for the Democrats are not the elite.
Punchenko on February 27, 2013 at 6:29 PM
Give me a break, yes, yes they do.
The schools are run by liberals who sing “mmm, mmm, mmm, OBAMA!” Journalist hail him as king, and the welfare system reproduces legions of leeches to ride on the backs of the ever shrinking number of those of who pull the wagon.
The country has tipped, there are more of them than there are of us, plain and simple. It is OVER. We PAY them to reproduce voters who only vote to take more from us to give to themselves. And we cannot keep up because those of us who work can only responsibly afford 2 or 3 kids.
Romney was right, 47% of the country did not, will not, and won’t ever vote for an eeeeeeeeevil conservative. And our ranks are SHRINKING not growing.
JustTruth101 on February 27, 2013 at 6:44 PM
You are an ass, as usual.
Once again, you accuse me of cowardice, when you have absolutely no evidence of such.
LegendHasIt on February 28, 2013 at 3:11 PM