What causes government spending to go down: Circumstance or ideology?
The biggest surprise of all, of course, is that real, per-capita spending has not just flattened under Barack Obama but has actually declined. Let’s get the qualifications out of the way: Part of 2009 spending, which was George W. Bush’s final budget year, is rightly recognized as belonging to Obama; spending is likely to boost up this year from last year; and all of Obama’s years are among the very highest in terms of real outlays.
Yet it’s absolutely the case that spending has flatlined under Obama just as it did under Eisenhower, Nixon, H.W. Bush, and Clinton.
The question is: Why does spending flatten at some times and not others? …
The one thing that seems clear to me is that the role political ideology doesn’t seem to explain much at all when it comes to spending. Ronald Reagan ran as a small-government guy but increased spending – even beyond military spending – massively. Ditto George W. Bush, whose small government rhetoric masked a Texas-sized spending habit. On the flip side, Bill Clinton ran as a liberal and so did Barack Obama; despite serious differences, both were willing to spend tax dollars. Yet their spending patterns betray no increase in spending year over year. …
Blowback
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Obama Logic™, yup, right there.
Difficultas_Est_Imperium on February 21, 2013 at 5:05 PM
The choice given here is a false one. For spending to go down requires a mix of ideology (or at least a belief that cutting spending and reducing debt is a good thing), a compliant Congress, and also fiscal realities. Some countries have managed to managed to escape the debt spiral and are profiting handsomely with growing economies, such as Suriname. But most haven’t, with their ruling class being unable or unwilling to cut spending, preferring instead to go bankrupt, such as most of the rest of the Caribbean, the EU, and of course the USA.
Ultimately, the key element is leadership.
Doomberg on February 21, 2013 at 5:10 PM
What might make spending go down? Oh, I dunno — running out of money, maybe?
cthulhu on February 21, 2013 at 5:12 PM
Well the phone lines from the White House, the Senate and the House is a party lines and not that clear at times due to that, from time to time the Federal Reserve can not tell if they where told ,,,,,
“Print $5 Trillion a month or $25 Trillion a month.”
So they just spend all that is printed up for them.
APACHEWHOKNOWS on February 21, 2013 at 5:13 PM
Not passing a budget for 4 years?
astonerii on February 21, 2013 at 5:14 PM
We passed that mark 16 trillion dollars ago.
As Mark Steyn likes to say we need 16 trillion dollars just to get back to broke.
gwelf on February 21, 2013 at 5:18 PM
Whose signature is on the 2009 Budget Act?
Hint it is not Bush’s
agmartin on February 21, 2013 at 5:24 PM
Nothing causes government spending to go down. The last time it actually went down was 1948.
zmdavid on February 21, 2013 at 7:27 PM