Why I hope Hagel wins

What might stop amnesty? Well, the House Republicans, of course. Why might they do it? Because they are pissed off after losing a string of fights to Obama over … Hagel and the sequester and spending and gun control.

This thought is grounded in one of two apparent theories of Washington political dynamics. The first, more familiar theory is grounded in competitive sports and war. There’s a big battlefield. One side starts racking up victories, it gains ground and “momentum.” It’s “on a roll,” Meanwhile, the other side is “demoralized,” in “disarray.” After it loses again, it might go into “retreat” and stop offering meaningful resistance. This is the theory Rahm Emanuel was implicilty citing when he argued that small victories, at the beginning of the Obama Presidency, would lay the groundwork for bigger victories. It’s the theory the press is alluding to when it says a Hagel defeat, coming so soon after the Susan Rice’s withdrawal, would be a crippling setback for Obama.

The second theory is based more on hydraulics and human emotions. It argues that Washington wants to be in a sort of equilibrium. Victories don’t beget further victories. They beget resentment, which will express itself somehow until equilibrium is restored. If Obama wins the Hagel nomination, that doesn’t mean the Republicans are going to leave the field. This isn’t American Idol. They aren’t going anywhere, at least for two years. They’ll filibuster and block until they are appeased either by victories of their own or by concessions.