It wasn’t just redistricting that gave Republicans their House majority
I estimated which of their 50 states had more votes cast for Barack Obama and which had more votes cast for Mitt Romney. My count is Romney 29, Obama 21. So their plan would have produced a Romney presidency. Now obviously the campaign would have been conducted differently if the Electoral College worked that way. But my point remains solid: in an election in which Obvama won the popular vote 51%-47%, a politically neutral division of the nation into 50 equal-population states would have given Romney 58% of the electoral votes and Obama 42%. Equal-population districts work against the Obama Democratic coalition.
This effect was visible as well in elections to the House, which have equal-population districts within each state. Republicans won 234 seats in the House and Democrats 201. Mitt Romney appears to have won (I’m waiting on final counts) 228 House districts and Obama 207.
Interested readers with time on their hands might want to actually calculate the vote in each of these districts, and my estimates may be wrong in a couple of cases. But if I’m anywhere close to right, Romney carried a majority of these equal-population states.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Not to worry, the 20 million new Democrat voters in the Republican amnesty plans will make all that figuring irrelevant.
RJL on February 15, 2013 at 7:49 PM
The main problem is that the cities are almost unanimously Democrat.
Count to 10 on February 15, 2013 at 8:23 PM
I’m hoping a guy named Ben Carson can help with that. I think he can actually get some blacks to start thinking for themselves.
BuckeyeSam on February 15, 2013 at 10:16 PM
The article tells anyone that is listening that the way to victory is not I repeat not to win the votes of moderates. It is to drive up the amount of conservatives who go to the polls. Barone states that it is the big cities that give the dems the edge in statewide races. And that the dems win those cities with about 70%. therefore to narrow that advantage those outside cities must be inclined to go to the Polls. this is where Mitt failed. He tried to win the cities and forgot about the heartland. Well not forgot but assumed he had the heartland and that they would vote for him regardless of what he did. While many did many also had no reason to vote for liberal lite and instead stayed home. This not only gave Obama a victory but pushed purple districts into the dems win colume as conservatives stayed home. Losing close Senate and House seats in the process.
In order to win the GOP must drive their base (i.e the slient majority, the heartland, those not of the cities ) to the polls and to do that they need to run a conservative centered campaign. The moderates are a losing strategy.
unseen on February 16, 2013 at 7:16 AM