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Nate Silver: I might stop doing electoral modeling if it starts influencing elections
He said that his statistics are not intended to affect results, which shouldn’t be an issue in most general elections. But he conceded that in races such as last year’s Republican presidential primary, analysis can make a difference.
“The polls can certainly affect elections at times,” Silver said. “I hope people don’t take the forecasts too seriously. You’d rather have an experiment where you record it off from the actual voters, in a sense, but we’ll see. If it gets really weird in 2014, in 2016, then maybe I’ll stop doing it. I don’t want to influence the democratic process in a negative way.”
“I’m [hoping to make] people more informed, I don’t want to affect their motive because they trust the forecasters,” he added.
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…unstated caveat: “that is unless the nice people at the New York Times pay me more money.”
Robert_Paulson on February 14, 2013 at 12:23 PM
Maybe you could start by not taking credit for prognostication when it’s the polling companies doing the actual legwork, eh Natey?
KingGold on February 14, 2013 at 12:25 PM
puhleeze
cmsinaz on February 14, 2013 at 12:28 PM
You and Obama are not gods. You just think that you are.
Schadenfreude on February 14, 2013 at 12:39 PM
So the guy takes a little personal responsibility and you all slam on for it?
Some of you are completely unprincipled.
segasagez on February 14, 2013 at 12:45 PM
I dont understand all the hate in the first 4 comments.
Flapjackmaka on February 14, 2013 at 12:52 PM
Yes, it’s completely baffling that a Marxist Koz Kidz and NYT blogger doesn’t get support at hotair.
sauldalinsky on February 14, 2013 at 12:57 PM
His forecasting is fine though. Have you read any of his posts? I havent seen one that is opinionated.
Flapjackmaka on February 14, 2013 at 1:01 PM
Then stop. The pollsters should stop too.
besser tot als rot on February 14, 2013 at 1:03 PM
They do.
Then let’s do that instead.
Do it now.
Too late.
besser tot als rot on February 14, 2013 at 1:04 PM
All of you are completely unprincipled.
Schadenfreude on February 14, 2013 at 1:10 PM
I don’t understand why people say he’s such an amazing prognosticator. He just aggregates data from pollsters doing the real work. Predicting 11 of the 12 contests that were seriously in doubt over the past 2 pres elections does not mean anything statistically.
RW Wacko on February 14, 2013 at 1:11 PM
So in other words, his early 2014 models are showing that a six year itch will in fact come?
Gingotts on February 14, 2013 at 1:12 PM
Starts?
Bob's Kid on February 14, 2013 at 1:13 PM
Sure, I read him, to see what the other side is up to. All of Silver’s posts have a severely liberal bias. I do think our side would be better informed if Michael Barone and Sean Trende were rigorous in number crunching in a conservative way like Silver does on the liberal side. But the conservative media model in the 2000′s is set up for cheerleading and not for debate, so that’s not going to happen.
sauldalinsky on February 14, 2013 at 1:17 PM
That’s some great comedy right there. You should try writing for SNL – they need some help.
besser tot als rot on February 14, 2013 at 1:19 PM
Some people can’t get over the fact that he was right and/or that Obama won.
RayinVA on February 14, 2013 at 2:02 PM
Perhaps not. But, that doesn’t change the fact that the most accurate pollster was PPP (hired by Daily Kos) and Nate Silver was the most accurate analyst/forecaster. That doesn’t mean they’ll always be right, but it seems unwise to dismiss them out of hand.
Outlander on February 14, 2013 at 2:02 PM
Statistics aren’t liberal or conservative.
RayinVA on February 14, 2013 at 2:04 PM
Statistics are not facts either. But that doesn’t stop either side from abusing them.
Hypocrisy abounds. The dude abides.
Capitalist Hog on February 14, 2013 at 2:31 PM