Five reasons not to bet on Marco Rubio for 2016

Ok, let’s knock these out one-by-one:

1. Republicans like to choose the next in line

No argument there. But who’s next in line? I don’t see anyone from the 2012 field resurfacing in 2016 except for maybe Rick Perry, and he’s a longshot at best. Santorum’s flaws last year are still gonna be around 3 years from now, only he’ll have been out of office even longer.

Paul Ryan will have an edge as the former VP pick, but that can also work against him. He has the stigma of being on a losing ticket(that frankly had no business losing). So this won’t really hurt Rubio much.

2. Republicans choose the candidate backed by the establishment

Again, no argument. But 2016 is likely to see a very competitive primary with the grassroots determined to not be saddled with another squishy moderate whom the establishment claims is the only person who can win a general election. Not after McCain and Romney. Hell, you could argue it already happened in 2012. Romney only won the nomination after he was the last man standing. The conservative base was desperate for an alternative which led to even Herman Cain leading the polls for over a month.

3. Rubio is likely too conservative

He should only be so lucky. The perception of being too conservative would guarantee him the nomination.

4. Rubio is largely an unknown

Uh, so was Barack Obama. So was Mitt Romney to most independents and Democrats. So was John Kerry to most Americans. So was John Edwards. You can have a lot of success as an unknown in the primaries. In fact, I’d argue that this can be a good thing as it allows you to define yourself for the voters rather than be a known commodity with already potentially high negative ratings(Hillary in 2008).

5. A Rubio run would face a competitive GOP field

This I agree with completely, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t bet on Rubio. If Obama’s 2nd term is a disaster as many of us predict, I would expect the 2016 GOP primary to be preoccupied mainly with undoing the damage of the Obama Presidency which would be moving the country back to the right after 8 years of ultraleftist policies. That’s gonna hurt moderate types like CRISTie or Jeb Bush. Which means the goal for the Republican candidates will be to come off as the most electable true conservative in the field. Rubio has to be careful with the whole immigration issue, but he’s articulate, likeable, Latino, and can appeal to Tea Partiers and traditional GOP voters alike.

It would be foolish to bet against him unless the amnesty/immigration bill blows up in his face. Or if his hairline keeps receding(and I wish I was joking about that).

Doughboy on February 12, 2013 at 11:16 AM