Rove’s new group could backfire on the GOP
The voters who do turn out in Republican Senate primaries are likely to be highly informed consumers of conservative-friendly news media outlets such as talk radio, prime-time shows on Fox News and conservative magazines and blogs. They may also weigh the endorsements of prominent conservative politicians and organizations. An insurgent candidate who is presented in a favorable light in these outlets may have plenty of ability to reach her target voters, even if she is spending little or nothing on paid advertisements and outreach efforts.
Mr. Rove’s efforts could backfire, therefore, if they result in the insurgent candidate receiving more sympathetic treatment through these channels; the amount of so-called “earned media” that the insurgent receives could outweigh the extra advertisements that the establishment candidate is able to afford.
A related problem is that the insurgent candidates could seek to raise money directly in response to moves by Conservative Victory Project, as Mr. King of Iowa is attempting to do. This could be the case especially when insurgent candidates were otherwise having trouble raising funds.
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It could backfire because any candidate associated with Karl Rove is unlikely to get much support from grassroots activists. Hell, Steve King is already using Rove as a foil in his bid for the Senate. Expect more of that.
Doughboy on February 11, 2013 at 2:44 PM
It could backfire on Rove.
Schadenfreude on February 11, 2013 at 2:49 PM
New York Times: Yesterday’s news today.
At least it’s better they’re accurate this time or something.
sauldalinsky on February 11, 2013 at 2:58 PM
Hate to say it, but always trust content from Nate Silver.
BJ* on February 11, 2013 at 3:05 PM
Silver is basically correct here. Rove is causing an already serious problem for the GOP to become much worse. I can’t quite figure out whether it’s arrogance or stupidity on his and his backers’ parts.
I’m also dubious about whether he’s serious about winning elections as opposed to just preventing conservative insurgents from winning.
Doomberg on February 11, 2013 at 3:07 PM
I don’t think Rove’s group will backfire on the GOP but I do think it’s going blow up in his face.
Remember, he was a central figure in the administration of the president who bragged, “I ran the conservatives out of the Republican party”.
Rove’s group may be the spark that finally gets a viable third party going and ends the reign of the Stupids.
single stack on February 11, 2013 at 3:13 PM
It’s arrogance on his part …
If you read his book, Tokyo Rove got beat up as a kid for supporting Nixon.
Every election, is simply an exercise for his mental lunacy to go back in time and “re-fight” those boys that kicked his ass so badly.
It’s beyond ideology for him. He could give two sh8ts what happens to this country – he just wants the candidates backed by “The Architect” to win those elections.
What he fails to realize, due to his mental instability, is that every Dimmocrit, every Independent, and the VAST MAJORITY of Conservatives hate his guts. He’s hated worse than Nancy Pelosi – his favorability with the American public is LOWER than Nancy Pelosi’s!
Any candidate who rolls with Rove will be attaching a “Don’t vote for me” sign to his chest.
Forget the grassroots … Rove is despised by everyone.
HondaV65 on February 11, 2013 at 3:18 PM
I think actually, between Rove and Boehner and McConnel and Cornyn – they’ll disgrace the Ayatollahs of the establishment so badly that they’ll be chased from the party.
HondaV65 on February 11, 2013 at 3:19 PM
I feel like the GOP is probably unreformable. The Tea Party effort was the great grassroots effort to clean up internal corruption and it basically failed due to a massive backlash from the GOP leadership. The GOP seems to have actually gone further into the Democrats’ arms as a result, since they apparently are afraid of losing their seats to conservative insurgents.
I just don’t see who, specifically, could get “inside” the GOP to unseat the leadership. I think a better solution is to form a new second party, cannibalize the GOP’s donor networks, and overtake them from the outside. A second internal battle is unlikely to solve the party’s problems.
Doomberg on February 11, 2013 at 3:26 PM
The opinions of juvenile Obama supporters really can’t be counted for much.
JFKY on February 11, 2013 at 3:36 PM
I do not think Rove is trying to regain their trust. If he were, he wouldn’t have broadcast so loudly his intentions.
In old talk, he is using the hammer to scare the midgets, and try to create a surge for the big shots he is backing.
He doesn’t own the cities. He doesn’t even have the military votes, assuming he can pull them out of the incinerators. He doesn’t have the means to double vote, or motor vote. All he has is the Hammer because he is hunting perceived cockroaches.
The NYT is trying to ‘help’ him by designating him the Kingpin of the GOP. Logically, this will aggravate the disenfranchised.
His one advantage: Rove wil have the MSM to amplify his criticisms of dissenting GOP candidates. He will try to destroy reputations in the primaries, creating weakened candidates for the full run, just like last time. IMHO he had to kill the deal in the last election. Re runs are a bee-hodge
entagor on February 11th, 2013 at 3:35 pm
entagor on February 11, 2013 at 3:38 PM
Did you see Donald Trump’s harsh tweets about Rove?? He hit him so hard, that I laughed out loud.
karenhasfreedom on February 11, 2013 at 3:51 PM
The best part of the article was easily this.
Primary winners are in red. It shows the establishment winning primaries only a little bit more than half of the time despite significant cash advantages.
It also shows that the establishment outperforms base-selected candidates when you count both challenger and incumbent wins. Take away incumbency and they perform about equally well.
All-in-all, this suggests that the entire idea of “electability” is a myth, and that if anything, conservative candidates are able to do more with less than establishment candidates.
Stoic Patriot on February 11, 2013 at 4:20 PM
look as a Reagan conservatives we didn’t ask for this war. We voted mostly for Bush and his ilk and tried to turn the father and son more towards the conservative mind set. It didn’t work. We were happy to get a few crumbs during the bush years. We sought peace and goodwill with the moderates and progressives within the GOP. when the pull to leave the party and seek out a third way was strong most of us buckled down and accepted bush, Mccain Doleetc. We played by the rules and put up our own candidates and accepted the results of the primaries trying to keep the GOP from going full tilt progressive. But then something happened. We got one of ours as the VP nominee and instead of helping to get both the POTUS and VP candidates elected the GOPe sought to destroy not only the VP candidate but also the rest of the conservatives within the party. 5 years later we are at this point where I and I would imagine many others don’t even consider ourselfs part of the GOP anymore because to me that means Bush Rove and the rest of the quislings for the progressive left.
Rove and company made their bed and it isn’t a matte rof if it might backfire Nov 6th 2012 shows clearly it already has backed fired. the damage was done over the last 5 years and I don’t think it can be healed. So I hope the GOPe likes being the minority party for decades too come because I know I sure as hell am not voting for their candidates.
unseen on February 11, 2013 at 5:09 PM