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Stuart Rothenberg

The youth vote: A tipping point for Democrats?

The current Republican majority in the House of Representatives, which owes its existence to the results of the 2010 elections, should not obscure what is happening around the country: The party is at risk of reverting to minority status.

If this happens, it would not mean that Republicans could never win elections — Dwight D. Eisenhower won the White House in 1952 and 1956 — and it certainly would not mean that the GOP can’t win the presidency in 2016. But it does suggest that — unless the party changes its current trajectory — Republican successes will depend primarily on Democratic failures.

The split in the GOP between “establishment conservatives,” who see compromise as a necessary part of government, and “anti- establishment conservatives,” for whom compromise is akin to caving in to opponents, obviously has damaged the party during the past four years. And there is no end in sight to the infighting…

Democrats start with an advantage with an age cohort that will participate in elections for the next 50 years and will be replacing older voters in the electorate — the most Romney age cohort in 2012 — over the next two decades.

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“which owes its existence to the results of the 2010 elections+ – Hey dumb ass… this is how an election works. Obama owes his existence to the 2012 election too eh?

brewcrew67 on February 7, 2013 at 5:37 PM

Obama’s funemployment policy paying off.

Mark1971 on February 7, 2013 at 5:43 PM

Good lord make it stop.

celticdefender on February 7, 2013 at 5:43 PM

Does the ‘youth vote’ realize they are going to get royally screwed?

Galt2009 on February 7, 2013 at 5:44 PM

The white youth voted overwhelmingly for Romney… even though Obama won the white youth vote in 2008. It was the biggest swing in any demographic from 2008 to 2012.

There is no “youth vote”… there is just an ethnic vote that is growing.

ninjapirate on February 7, 2013 at 5:53 PM

ninjapirate on February 7, 2013 at 5:53 PM

This is true. Even white women under 30 went for Romney by a very small margin.

Mark1971 on February 7, 2013 at 6:10 PM

Nope. My generation is 75% in lockstep for them. It’s one of the many reasons why I’ve written them off.

nobar on February 7, 2013 at 6:12 PM

Democrats start with an advantage with an age cohort that will participate in elections for the next 50 years and will be replacing older voters in the electorate — the most Romney age cohort in 2012 — over the next two decades.

They won’t vote Democrat forever. 50 years ago the Democrats had a 60% majority in the House, probably supported by the youth vote. What happened to those voters? Were they all voting Democrat in 1994? 2010?

steebo77 on February 7, 2013 at 6:12 PM

What is really surprising though is that according to Pew 20% of black males under 30 voted for Romney, which is probably twice as more than the overall black population.

Mark1971 on February 7, 2013 at 6:13 PM

Did every 1960 Kennedy voter and 1964 Johnson voter under 30 continue to vote Democrat in every presidential election to follow? No. A heck of a lot of them voted for Nixon, Regan, and Bush.

steebo77 on February 7, 2013 at 6:15 PM

What is really surprising though is that according to Pew 20% of black males under 30 voted for Romney, which is probably twice as more than the overall black population.

Mark1971 on February 7, 2013 at 6:13 PM

Probably a question of a small sample resulting in a screwy result.

steebo77 on February 7, 2013 at 6:16 PM

steebo77 on February 7, 2013 at 6:15 PM

Yeah, if you told somebody in 1968 that in 12 years these college students are going to be voting for that conservative governor of California and put him in the White House they would have laughed their asses off at you.

Mark1971 on February 7, 2013 at 6:19 PM

Republican successes will depend primarily on Democratic failures

Duh.

A Balrog of Morgoth on February 7, 2013 at 6:25 PM

Republican successes will depend primarily on Democratic failures

That presupposes that Democrat successes have not depended primarily on Republican failures (which have been bountiful).

besser tot als rot on February 7, 2013 at 6:32 PM

Republicans have looked divided, extreme and inept, and the “anti-establishment” wing of the party has often seemed more interested in defeating establishment Republicans in primaries than in defeating Democrats in the fall.

As opposed to what, exactly? What the establishment Republicans are doing?

Establishment Republicans are even worse than the anti-establishment types in this regard, because by nature, the establishment types are “established” and feel that the seats they are entitled to are in Jeopardy. The have something to lose, unlike grassroots and Tea Party candidates, and so they hiss, growl, and spray like cornered animals.

mintycrys on February 7, 2013 at 6:32 PM

Yeah, I voted for McGovern in 1972, part of the heralded “youth vote” of that era.

This explains why I still robotically vote Democratic in every election forty years later.

Oh, wait…

Realist on February 7, 2013 at 6:42 PM

1995 college grad here. Let’s take a look at my personal presidential voting history.. primary/general

1992: Brown/Clinton
1996: Clinton/Clinton
2000: Gore/Gore
2004: Dean/Kerry
2008: Romney/McCain
2012: Santorum/Romney
(2016: Rubio/Rubio…(?)

Funny how the realities of life bring politics into focus. Usually, it’s in this direction… Comparatively few people go the other way.

Greek Fire on February 7, 2013 at 6:44 PM

More silly Rothenberg concern trolling from someone who makes their living off of Washington silliness.

The white youth voted overwhelmingly for Romney… even though Obama won the white youth vote in 2008. It was the biggest swing in any demographic from 2008 to 2012.

There is no “youth vote”… there is just an ethnic vote that is growing.

ninjapirate on February 7, 2013 at 5:53 PM

This is true. Even white women under 30 went for Romney by a very small margin.

Mark1971 on February 7, 2013 at 6:10 PM

Both go unreported in the MSM and for good reason. Romney even edged out Barry with college-educated voters.

Punchenko on February 7, 2013 at 6:45 PM

We win when we articulate how conservatism is for everybody, we lose when we don’t plain and simple. Look at the winning GOP guys versus the losers.

cpaulus on February 7, 2013 at 6:48 PM

Which party holds 31 governorships and a 40 seat majority in the House?

Ted Torgerson on February 7, 2013 at 6:51 PM

His reason was that too many House districts have produced GOP members of Congress who don’t need to appeal to swing voters and don’t even care about the political views of independents and ticket-splitters. His party, he argued, would be better off with more members of Congress who understood the need to appeal to a broad array of constituents.

Who is this guy, who considers himself of the non partisan party, he sounds awfully anti conservative – the point is these people represent thier demographic group? They are not senators representing their state “in general,” they are local reps. I like them. They should NOT be non partisan, they should bring their various views to the House.

Last year, of course, the president beat Mitt Romney 60 percent to 37 percent among voters 18-29 years of age, a much better showing than Obama’s 4-point win in the final popular vote (though not as good as his 66 percent showing among younger voters in 2008)….Romney, on the other hand, easily beat Obama among voters 45 and older, many of whom came of age politically during the Reagan years or whose views were formed by the Gipper’s brand of conservatism.Romney did carry white voters in the 18-29 age group last year, but by only 51 percent to 44 percent. In contrast, he won whites 65 years and older by 61 percent to 39 percent and whites 45-64 by 61 percent to 38 percent.

People who were not voting an Identity Vote, voted for Romney. Romney Beat McCain’s turnout after all the votes were counted. I am getting tired of hearing that Romney didn’t bring out the base, when a lot of people worked hard to bank those votes ahead of time. I know…other’s who didn’t lift a finger like to criticize.

http://spectator.org/archives/2012/12/03/romney-beats-mccain

Fleuries on February 7, 2013 at 7:13 PM

The GOP will betray you

True_King on February 7, 2013 at 8:19 PM