Five reasons Republicans won’t win Latino voters with immigration reform
4. Demographics don’t swing elections
Even if Republicans did bring up their percentage of the Latino vote, it wouldn’t make a great difference nationwide. Say Mitt Romney won George W Bush’s percentage of the Latino vote, he still would have lost the nationwide vote by 1.4pt. The reason is that the Latino vote still only makes up 9-10% of the vote in the national exit polls, and slightly less in most other surveys.
The rate of growth of the Latino vote nationwide has been relatively slow. A solid estimate matching past trends from David Broockman and Ethan Roeder put the Latino vote growing about 0.6pt as a portion of the electorate every presidential election through 2024. Obama’s margin of victory would be just 0.7pt higher according to projected demographics for 2024. That puts an onus on Republicans to win more Latino votes, though it’s not as large an imperative as one might assume.
5. Most Latino voters don’t live in swing states
Most of the growth in the Latino vote is occurring in non-swing states. California and Texas are where most the Latino voters are and will continue to be. California will be blue for the foreseeable future, and Texas isn’t going to turn blue for another decade and a half. Arizona is an intriguing state for Democrats, though the recent Republican turn of the white vote makes it a non-swing state.
The only swing states in which Latinos make up the same or a greater percentage of the electorate than nationally are Colorado, Florida, and Nevada.
Blowback
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Worse than a waste of time.
sharrukin on January 29, 2013 at 7:45 PM
Immigration reform is intended to distance the GOP from conservatives. The idea is to increase the progressive vote so high that there can be two viable parties living off progressive votes. Thus, there will be no home for conservatives, and the GOP can wield power just like the democrats do.
astonerii on January 29, 2013 at 7:47 PM
First of all, it isn’t reform — it’s a scam to get more donkey voters. Second, Latinos are not a group except to racists. Third, no citizens really believe that we are having an immigration problem unless they are kool-aid drinkers.
We have a crime problem called illegal entry. This crime is being ignored for political purposes (e.g., skewing the census).
Enforce the laws we have. Cut off ALL federal funds to states and/or local governments that have “no harass” policies for illegal aliens.
And stop giving these people more than emergency medical care. They show up in the ER, treat ‘em and deport ‘em. Immediately. If they lose their stuff, tough. They weren’t supposed to be here anyway. And have ‘em take their spawn with ‘em.
I am so done with this crap I could scream.
platypus on January 29, 2013 at 7:48 PM
Advice from the Guardian. Caveat emptor.
crrr6 on January 29, 2013 at 7:48 PM
Most people I know from south America have a top down view of government. A central figure to blame or praise. Thus they are what modern American “liberalism” has become.
MechanicalBill on January 29, 2013 at 8:01 PM
That would be why most of their reasons are non sequiturs.
There are plenty of good reasons, though. Briefly: 1) Rushing panicked legislation to improve the next election against an impeccably blackish sex god is pretty stupid considering he’s not running again 2) as low as the Latino turnout is, it’s even lower in midterms. Amnesty is the only thing that can really endanger the GOP, by depressing the huge turnout swing in midterms when the idiots aren’t even paying attention 3) accepting as fact the idea that the GOP is eventually Doomed, Doomed! by Latinos is no reason to sign the death warrant by enlisting 20 million enemy voters 4) Latinos (who cling to their hyphenated identity) come from —holes that are —-holes because they made them that way by voting for the local version of Democrats. Basically, Latin America is Detroit. They aren’t going to change their preference for bad government and their disdain for or ignorance of gringo balderdash like the Constitution because Democrats are pro-choice 5) By standing firm, up to and including walking away from the table, the GOP could extract huge concessions on a whole range of issues. Just for example, total Dem surrender on pro-choice. We’re talking about 20 million new Dem voters. After all the bluffing, the Dems will be willing to throw Jimmy Hoffa into the lake with his dad for that.
HitNRun on January 29, 2013 at 8:03 PM
Actually, that’s supposed to read “total Dem surrender on school choice,” though for 20 million new voters, they might be willing to throw the feminists under the bus too.
HitNRun on January 29, 2013 at 8:05 PM
Bingo!
ButterflyDragon on January 29, 2013 at 8:17 PM
And if Romney had gotten 42% of the vote in Colorado and 46% in Nevada, which is pretty good for a Republican, he STILL would have lost both states.
A slightly higher percentage would have made a difference in Florida though. Say, isn’t Rubio one of Florida’s senators? How’d that work out in the general election?
The Party of 8, brought to you by Dick Durbin, Chuck Schumer, Bob Menendez and John “Let’s do it for Ted Kennedy” McCain. Caveat Emptor indeed.
xblade on January 29, 2013 at 8:28 PM
Freebies
Oil Can on January 29, 2013 at 8:35 PM
1. You cannot possibly out-liberal the liberals on giving free stuff any more than you can fly to Mars by flapping your arms.
2. The vast majority of Latinos (apologies to the legal ones) don’t WANT reform. They want their welfare-for-votes scam to stay the way it is, thank you very much.
3. Hispandering will not even begin to make up for the people who vote 3rd party or just give the hell home. For every Rico Wetback who you actually get to (illegally) vote Republican, several productive American citizens will flip you the bird in anger.
4. Trying to reform immigration is a joke when you don’t have the spine to challenge Demoncrats on anything whatsoever. Even if a sensible bill DID make it through Clowngress and past the
pResident, you wouldn’t be able to enforce it.5. Even if you somehow did start to reform immigration AND stuck to it harder than a wad of Silly Putty, there’s still the little issue of a border resembling a colander used for target practice by a platoon armed with shotguns.
MelonCollie on January 29, 2013 at 8:49 PM
1. You cannot possibly out-liberal the liberals on giving free stuff any more than you can fly to Mars by flapping your arms.
2. The vast majority of Latinos (apologies to the legal ones) don’t WANT reform. They want their welfare-for-votes scam to stay the way it is, thank you very much.
3. Hispandering will not even begin to make up for the people who vote 3rd party or just give the hell home. For every illegal Rico or Rosita who you actually get to vote Republican, several productive American citizens will flip you the bird in anger.
4. Trying to reform immigration is a joke when you don’t have the spine to challenge Demoncrats on anything whatsoever. Even if a sensible bill DID make it through Clowngress and past the
pResident, you wouldn’t be able to enforce it.5. Even if you somehow did start to reform immigration AND stuck to it harder than a wad of Silly Putty, there’s still the little issue of a border resembling a colander used for target practice.
MelonCollie on January 29, 2013 at 8:51 PM
!@#@!$*!@%$# it!!! Mods, please delete one of the two posts.
MelonCollie on January 29, 2013 at 9:45 PM