Worst-case scenarios for Obama’s second term

Been working on some predictions of my own:

1. Inflation—0bama either admits it’s happening, and the debate turns to energy, or Santa Claus with his EBTs won’t be able to buy his voters much more than hard candy.

2. Energy—If 0bama embraces the shale gas boom in any way, he virtually guarantees a serious Green Party run a-la Nader in 2000. If he fails to embrace it, and the other crises swallow his Presidency, the Republican successor has an “easy button” to bringing back prosperity.

3. Latin America and Illegal Immigration—Net positive migration from Latin America to the US stopped in 2007. The pattern of welfare-dependent illegal families is to come to the US, have their babies, and leave before the youngest turns 5. This tends to take about ten years, if crowding levels in schools are any indication. 2016 will be ten years since the last year of positive migration. The deaths of Castro and Chavez, if they result in successors tired of fighting the Cold War, could hasten the exodus, as foreign investment brings jobs in lower-cost-of-living Latin America.

4. Katrina’s Revenge—Most of the Gulf Coast and Florida have Republican governors. The most vulnerable states, TX and LA have GOP governors with possible 2016 ambitions. The major reason Katrina damaged Bush’s second term was less because of the sheer devastation wrought by Katrina, than by Louisiana and New Orleans being in Democrat hands, with national Democrats instructing Nagin and Blanco on how to take maximum political damage. A major hurricane hitting somewhere on the Gulf Coast, just watch it get one iota less attention than Sandy victims….

5. Academic Bubble—Law schools are already feeling the crunch in enrollment, as are divinity schools. Universities spent student loan mad money on buildings and assets, which will be harder to shed if enrollment drops than personnel.

6. Generational Change—People born after 1954 were not drafted for Vietnam, and a major thing that galvanized the Campus Left in the 1960s was the threat of the draft. After the Draft was gone, rebellious youth turned to pot instead of protest. The election after 1972 was 1976, and a lot of disillusioned Carter voters brought about the Era of Reagan. Much of 0bama’s success can be attributed to those late 1960s radicals reaching their peak earning power and retiring. But golden years turn rapidly to geezer years, as health issues take more time and energy away from ones post-retirement hobbies.

Sekhmet on January 27, 2013 at 11:33 AM