With all of that as backdrop, there are at least two major reasons to think the NRA will emerge from the national debate on guns as a winner.

1. The NRA is already in the midst of a membership boom, as the actions taken by Obama — and, in particular, his executive orders — convince people that the threat of the government seizing guns or limiting gun ownership is real and, because it is, a counter-weight to that government is needed. (To be clear: Obama has never said anything that would suggest confiscation of guns is a possibility.)…

2. The likelihood is that whatever passes through Congress will be small, not big. While the NRA is fighting on all fronts at the moment — including opposing the executive orders signed by Obama — the organization almost certainly recognizes that some sort of measure(s) restricting gun rights is likely to be made law.

Given that, the NRA’s goal — unstated, of course — is likely to keep what Congress passes on the small side in terms of impact. So a ban on high capacity ammunition clips might be acceptable, but a new version of the assault weapons ban wouldn’t be.