IBD
Projection: New Social Security retirees will outlive trust fund
The hastening of the Social Security Trust Fund’s demise to 2033 means that workers just becoming eligible for Social Security at age 62 face steep future benefit cuts if they live to the average life expectancy, now about 84.
Those abrupt benefit cuts of about 25% a year for today’s 62 year olds and workers nearing the early retirement age would come at an especially bad time — late in life when savings have dwindled and health care bills are on the rise.
Avoiding this scenario is a key reason to reform Social Security, even apart from the program’s impact on rising debt levels.









Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Tell us something we all hadn’t figured out already…
Logus on January 15, 2013 at 1:41 PM
I’m counting on it…keep working you youngsters, we need your money!!
right2bright on January 15, 2013 at 1:41 PM
An interesting bit of information that may have been useful coming from a GOP presidential candidate.
besser tot als rot on January 15, 2013 at 1:42 PM
Um…duh?
Good Lt on January 15, 2013 at 1:44 PM
No one my age seriously believes we’ll ever see a red cent from social security. At this point everyone is just waiting for collapse.
Doomberg on January 15, 2013 at 1:46 PM
Leave it the way it is. That trust fund is worth nothing any ways. It has already been spent. Long before 2033 the federal government will have become effectively bankrupt and hyper inflation will have come along.
I hope the baby boomers and currently retired good for nothings get what they deserve.
astonerii on January 15, 2013 at 1:48 PM
I thought some one rich was going to pay for it.
Oil Can on January 15, 2013 at 1:54 PM
“I’ve just reported these vicious, racist, hateful lies about Social Security to AttackWatch. This Foxnews, right-wing, Tea Party propaganda must be stopped.” -Average Lefty
visions on January 15, 2013 at 2:04 PM
The solution for Social Security is simple, make it optional.
We have heard for decades from politicians on both sides that Social Security was untouchable, that is was the 3rd rail of politics. We’ve also been subjected to claims from the Democrats that the program is hugely popular and that to propose even modest reform would bring on the wrath of grandma and grandpa. We are regularly subjected to tales of desperate seniors forced to eat dog food or choose between medications and food so as to play on the sympathies of voters and prevent even modest changes to the program to extend its solvency.
We all know though that the system is unsustainable as the number of workers per retiree has plummeted since the program’s inception and will be at its lowest ratio ever as the Boomers begin retiring.
The unfunded liabilities of the system for those of us still in the work force run into the tens of trillions of dollars. It’s well past time for some changes.
I have what I believe to be a modest proposal to over time, retire the system, prove the Democrats claims about the program’s popularity to be false, and to reduce drastically the program’s unfunded liabilities.
Now of course I haven’t done all of the math but my proposal seems rational to me and has a little something for everyone.
1. Make participation in Social Security optional. This is among other things a moral issue. Why should any American be forced to participate in any government program? Are we not free citizens? Is our income not our property? Are we not largely adults responsible enough to plan for our own retirements? Participation in Social Security is government coercion.
2. Those that opt out will have to forgo all previous contributions. This will keep many, if not most, middle-age workers in the system. It will depend on their doing the analyses to determine what would be best for them financially. This also eliminates those that opt out as future liabilities.
3. Require employers to continue funding their portion of the FICA tax until all participants have passed away. Yes, we all know that the employer contribution is really an employee’s salary that he is never paid but this provision should garner some Democrat support due to the continuing program funding.
4. Ideally we’d also raise the retirement age and in a bow to fiscal reality, implement a means test so younger workers aren’t subsidizing grandma and grandpa’s vacations to Maui.
That’s it! Let’s test the Democrat’s theory on how popular Social Security is. With only 34% of those between 18 and 34 expecting to ever receive any benefits I guarantee most if not all younger workers will opt out immediately. Their investment in the system will have been low so the choice to opt out for them would be a real no-brainer? I suspect that many higher earning workers over 34 will also opt out and divert their FICA taxes to their 401ks, IRAs or even extra appending. I’m 46 and I’d opt out immediately and divert my money to my 401k.
The Democrats don’t really care about the financial well being of Americans, what they really crave is control and the ability to use Social Security as a tool to drive voting.
Let’s push ideas like this that increase our freedom of making our own life’s choices and to break the back of the Democrat party’s demagoguery.
Charlemagne on January 15, 2013 at 2:25 PM
What trust fund? We have a “lock box” full of worthless paper of “IOU’s”. The Reagan “fix” got raided and spent. This ponzi scheme should have politicians all in jail.
karenhasfreedom on January 15, 2013 at 2:31 PM
Two points of order:
- IBD is using the “combined” OASDI fund-exhaustion date. The “good” news (unless you’re disabled and won’t be 62 before mid-2016) is the two “trust funds” are not combined, which pushes OASI fund exhaustion off to 2035. Then again, that still means SocSecurity will run out of IOUs before half of the 62-year-olds die off.
- The intermediate scenario is still too rosy, though less so than in recent years. My re-estimate of the 2009 Trustees’ intermediate scenario (the last uncorrupted by the political assumption that PlaceboCare will result in increased FICA/SECA taxes), adjusting for the POR Economy performance (or lack thereof), has OASI’s “trust fund” running out of IOUs in 2030.
Steve Eggleston on January 15, 2013 at 2:44 PM
Don’t worry. The builtin incompetence of Obamacare will kill us off WAY faster.
michaelo on January 15, 2013 at 3:21 PM
As intended.
RENEWAL!
Steve Eggleston on January 15, 2013 at 3:45 PM