Telegraph
British defense chiefs prepare new plan to defend Falklands
The Government is expecting a 100 per cent “yes” vote when the islanders are asked on March 11: “Do you wish the Falkland Islands to retain their current political status as an Overseas Territory of the United Kingdom?”
Intelligence chiefs have warned David Cameron that a resounding “yes” vote could lead to an aggressive “stunt” by the Argentine government, such as the planting of the country’s flag on the island by a small raiding party.
Other possibilities include a “cod war” style harassment campaign by the Argentine navy of the Falklands’ fishing fleet and the disruption of British oil and gas exploration.
Such a move, officers have warned, could quite quickly escalate into aggressive action if the Royal Navy was ordered to intervene.
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With what?
They’ve gutted their military to spend on liberal social programs, in a shooting war they simply don’t have the forces to mount even a holding action.
Rebar on January 13, 2013 at 1:24 PM
Without aircraft carriers, they’re gonna’ need a new plan.
cozmo on January 13, 2013 at 1:25 PM
Argentina has cut even more.
If the Britt’s reinforce before the invasion, they can hold.
The big question is; what side will the US take this time?
cozmo on January 13, 2013 at 1:27 PM
Maybe they are wanting bho to ‘give them’ some help? That would not go over very well here I wouldn’t think?
L
letget on January 13, 2013 at 1:28 PM
Skip to the bottom of the page and look at how much smaller their forces are now compared with 30 years back.
blue13326 on January 13, 2013 at 1:54 PM
The British navy is a shadow even of what they had in 82.
Don’t really see them being able to do much about anything, let alone a determined invasion.
But, who knows. Perhaps the British Lion can still roar…
catmman on January 13, 2013 at 2:00 PM
Argentine is hardly in any better shape.
rob verdi on January 13, 2013 at 2:04 PM
It’ll be the most pathetic ‘war’ imaginable. Both nations have gutted their military and have no nerve.
MelonCollie on January 13, 2013 at 2:09 PM
Spitballs..?
d1carter on January 13, 2013 at 2:22 PM
They’ve built a complete air base, RAF Mount Pleasant, since ’82. Judging from satellite shots it has a dispersal area with sixteen revetted but not otherwise hardened parking spots for fighter aircraft. The major problem with the dispersal area is that cutting its taxiways at two points will trap all the dispersed aircraft. There’s also a mass ramp where additional aircraft could be parked.
The base housing areas look vulnerable. They should have been built much farther away from the operations area and provided with their own local defences.
There are also an indeterminate number of what look like SAM sites throughout the Falklands. They’re hard to see on satellite imagery and, not unreasonably, the Brits aren’t talking.
My guess is the Brits could stop a moderate airborne Argentine effort with the force on hand and some luck, or at least make it very expensive. Seaborne components of an invasion would have serious problems with the RN’s submarine force IF the Brits really want to fight.
An interesting question is: would Obama suddenly rediscover the Monroe Doctrine? Given his history of love and respect for Britain, it seems possible.
PersonFromPorlock on January 13, 2013 at 2:29 PM
Hey I know, the British ‘defense’ chiefs can create a poison gas unit: 100 draftees with tins of baked beans and metabolism-increasing pills. In the event of an invasion, they alternately eat the beans and pills until they’re stuffed…
MelonCollie on January 13, 2013 at 2:30 PM
Don’t they have to ask Obama first?
ctmom on January 13, 2013 at 3:24 PM
No way in hell. They’d have to land a couple divisions, dig in, and establish air superiority which would require a carrier battle group and a 7000 mile logistics line.
That’s not even vaguely possible with the UK’s force disposition.
The wrong one.
The only thing that is giving the Argentinian govt. pause is international public opinion.
CorporatePiggy on January 13, 2013 at 4:26 PM
The Royal Navy is indeed a lot smaller but the newer frigates and destroyers are more capable than the ones they had in ’82 though that is no substitute for the lack of carrier air wings or the logistics to keep it supplied for long.
Yakko77 on January 13, 2013 at 4:45 PM