Is the computer revolution already over?
Technological innovation drives productivity which drives economic growth and rising living standards. And the more rapid the increases in the capability of computing equipment, the more rapid the decline in the price of that equipment, given a fixed capability. …
So here’s the problem: Prices for information technology equipment are declining at the slowest pace in over a generation. And to the economic team at JPMorgan, this suggests the pace of technological advance is also slowing. If they’re right, this phenomenon would have a big impact on the US economy and workers. …
The downside here is that a slowdown in price declines has been accompanied by a slowdown in tech investment. And less tech investment, Feroli explains, “means less capital deepening, which could help explain why productivity growth has been soft in recent years.”
But there might be an upside to all this, he argues. Slower gains in technology and productivity, at least for a bit, might make it easier to absorb workers — labor in place of capital — back into the economy.
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It ended a decade ago. Running a computer company today is more about patent suits than invention.
Rocks on January 12, 2013 at 10:42 PM
Its dead here.
Wait till $50 tablets from China flood the market in a year or two.
jhffmn on January 12, 2013 at 10:42 PM
*sigh* I guess bad writers can’t keep their jobs if they point out the obvious, like the fact that we are in a never ending recession. Instead we get nonsense about how the computer age is over.
NotCoach on January 12, 2013 at 10:48 PM
The revolution is pretty much over. Most of the ‘progress’ is in software and marketing gizmos that aren’t really anything new.
Oh yes, let’s not forget the consumer devices with more bells and whistles than a kindergarten orchestra…and more security holes than a version of Microsloth Windoze that was coded by Indian programmers working only on Friday nights.
MelonCollie on January 12, 2013 at 10:54 PM
It’s been a post PC era since the late 1990′s. Tekkies were waiting for the next killer app. They turned to the mobile phone.
Red Creek on January 12, 2013 at 11:04 PM
The next computer revolution should involve developing improved standards for software design and debugging. Because it seems like every complex app that I use is riddled with annoying bugs that either get ignored by the developers over successive releases, or are fixed only to be replaced by new bugs.
Then, the All New Version is released. A completely revamped program with a shiny new interface and New Features which promises to be way more stable than the last version! And within days, it emerges that it too is full of bugs. It’s like we never get a program that damn well works like it’s supposed to. Instead of investing resources into making the current version bug free and fully operational, they plow money into the All New Version instead. And the bugs remain.
I do a lot of audio production in DAW’s. They’re all riddled with critical bugs. Pro Tools, Sonar, Cubase…they’re all the freaking same. Highly advanced programs with truly amazing features that have been in development for over 20 years and yet they have never, ever worked properly. The development of new coding and debugging methods which result in rock solid, stable programs that aren’t a pain in the ass for everyone using them…now that would truly be a computing revolution.
Sharke on January 12, 2013 at 11:08 PM
Not really. There is a big productivity revolution underway as companies migrate to SaaS solutions and away from on-premise or singe tenant hosted solutions. It will allow a lot of small companies to gain efficiencies and capabilities once only available to bigger companies.
Our company is leveraging SaaS solutions for several areas of the business in our developing markets due to low cost, rapid implementation, and the ability to quickly catch up to a level of sophistication near the US art of the business.
Charlemagne on January 12, 2013 at 11:19 PM
Tell that to Apple.
John the Libertarian on January 12, 2013 at 11:20 PM
Oh, and EMC has had yet another banner year.
John the Libertarian on January 12, 2013 at 11:21 PM
Yep. Windows 8 killed it.
/s
viking01 on January 12, 2013 at 11:45 PM
Oh let’s not forget the cloud. The “You don’t actually own it so the feds can take what they want” innovation I will never ever use.
ellesar04 on January 12, 2013 at 11:58 PM
This is not a problem that a half dozen or so $1T platinum coins couldn’t fix.
Dusty on January 13, 2013 at 12:00 AM
I think history rather shows that innovation and technology always moves forward. To assume we are at the end of technology would not be the smartest bet to make.
Warner Todd Huston on January 13, 2013 at 12:28 AM
Based on the fact that it was possible to buy a laptop with 1920×1200 resolution in 2011, but not today is proof that the computer industry is regressing.
Fizzmaister on January 13, 2013 at 12:53 AM
Everything now is about smartphones, tablets, apps for both of them, and cloud services/computing. It’s now about having the power of a desktop in the palm of your hand.
Jurisprudence on January 13, 2013 at 1:23 AM
Oh please computers are done? Everyone has one in their pocket now so it’s finished just like the USA… sure. Chips are all over the place now because they are cheap and look at the price and speed of memory now.
Macbook Pro does but you can expect more soon with the new screens coming along. It really taxes a processor though and you would need more real estate than most laptop screens to appreciate the extra resolution.
lexhamfox on January 13, 2013 at 1:34 AM
Depends on how you define computer. If you define it as the traditional desktop/laptop then yeah, it’s over, for now anyway, or at the least it’s shifting to mobile devices. I think it was this year or last year when ARM processors overtook conventional processors in sales which was just a reflection of people buying tablets and smart phones instead of desktops and tablets. And the decline in laptop/desktop sales is going to slow the rate at which their prices decline.
But, as we’re now seeing with the Microsoft Surface tablet that runs Windows 8 Pro with Intel i3/5 chips, the days of ARM dominance are numbered. Once people see that they can do on a tablet the same things they do on a laptop/desktop traditional processors will make a comeback. The question is will people want those processors in tablet/smart phone form or will they migrate back to laptops and desktops?
clearbluesky on January 13, 2013 at 1:50 AM
From a consumer point of view, it all depends upon each individual. For example, the computer world has reached its zenith for me, since I have no interest in smart phones, pads, clouds, streaming, social networking, and the many other things that have surfaced over the last few years.
I use Macs, and even OSs have peaked with Snow Leopard. There is no incentive to upgrade further – unless forced to, once my current machine dies.
About the only area driving desktop sales for the average consumer (not professional), is in games – graphics cards seem to be the deciding factor.
OldEnglish on January 13, 2013 at 2:06 AM
Nope, sorry. Moore’s law continues happily and healthily onwards. You will have to blame productivity decline on something else, like say… Obama? (The horror)
That a few financial analysts & a clueless reporter are unaware of Moore’s law (and that it is still on track) does not surprise me.
Irritable Pundit on January 13, 2013 at 2:14 AM
Missing those extra 120 lines of vertical resolution (with the now ubiquitous 1920×1080 screens) hurts my soul as well. On a deep level.
Oh well, onward and upward to 2560×1600!
strictnein on January 13, 2013 at 2:20 AM
Moore’s Law doesn’t apply, here. It is the consumer market-place that is in decline, as far as desktops go. Most consumers would not be aware of the CPU power of their PC – only what games it can run.
OldEnglish on January 13, 2013 at 2:24 AM
I really can’t figure that one out. I understand that they’re marketing geniuses and successfully retain buyers by trapping them in their ecosystem, but I bought an 2nd gen Ipad and it was one of the most annoyingly restrictive devices I’ve ever used. No microSD slot? No native .avi support? Wow. It’s handy for casual trips or if toddlers are around, but it always ends up feeling like an enormously expensive web browser, and I can’t figure out the massive appeal.
I admit I’m more techie/tinkerer than most, but are that many people longing to play Angry Birds on the toilet and check their email in bed?
rogerb on January 13, 2013 at 7:04 AM
It’s called Open Source Software. It’s responsible for making everything from Linux to Firefox extremely rock solid and stable. Unfortunately it has a reputation as being “socialized software,” a real shame as good open source projects reward individual ambition not to mention denying the numerous open source projects that are profitable by selling support rather than code (Canonical and Red Hat come to mind).
It’s really quite sad how few conservatives are in Computer Science. Part of the reason that the industry is moving forward with cloud solutions that ask you to put everything you own under the control of some big, central entity is because the corporations who build these products are run by liberals. A conservative vision for the consumer marketplace would start to build private clouds, that people could run in their own homes to keep their data private while still gaining access to it anywhere they want. Meanwhile, Moore’s Law is still marching which will keep Hardware as a Service (HaaS) getting cheaper and cheaper, something that people could resell from within their homes to corporations that need the computing power but can’t afford to run the power-hungry and cooling-hungry datacenters required, a model already shown to be feasible by Folding@Home but not yet commercialized.
That the liberal, corporate minds at Google and Apple have lost their creativity does not mean that the universe stopped expanding nor its laws stopped working.
solatic on January 13, 2013 at 7:38 AM
Too many big players with too much of the market.
albill on January 13, 2013 at 9:23 AM
Siri…it will change your way of doing things.
Got an iPad for my elderly mother…she now does Facetime with all her friends and relatives. Video phoning…for free. (Skype for those that don’t have Apple.)
Untied her from the desktop and changed the way she does things. iPad in the kitchen for recipes, iPad to do health research…
…and Siri…she can’t type so she dictates to her personal secretary…named Siri.
albill on January 13, 2013 at 9:27 AM
Put another tax on it. That’ll fix it.
petefrt on January 13, 2013 at 9:27 AM
Or tell everybody it’s a tea party plot.
platypus on January 13, 2013 at 9:54 AM
Thanks, and all of which is great, but it just proves my point about a massively expensive web browser.
rogerb on January 13, 2013 at 11:25 AM
So you think being locked to a desktop or laptop is nirvana? Maybe for gamers or techies it is…
And guessing you must not have have Siri or FaceTime…or use them…
Do you have a smart phone?
Yes, why? It is even a smaller iPad.
You either get the idea of the iPad/cell phone lifestyle change thing (and it is worth the investment) or you don’t get it.
albill on January 14, 2013 at 7:36 PM