At first the military hoped there might be as many as 20,000 U.S. troops left behind after combat operations in Afghanistan officially cease at the end of 2014. But now an administration official is saying that number will not exceed 10,000 and could be even be zero.

That will likely mean between 3,000 to 6,000 troops. But remember Iraq, where everyone was predicting a sizable presence, and that was cut to nothing on the military side–outside of the embassy.