Is Virginia still a red state?
“Virginia’s a conservative state, and when we stick up for our beliefs, and our values, and our principles … we win elections,” said Mullins, according to The Washington Post. “When we choose to run like Democrats, we lose elections because we haven’t given anybody a choice.”
Mullins’s assertion, even with latitude given for the rah-rah circumstances of a party rally, confounds many longtime observers of Old Dominion politics.
“Their election analysis is a predictable one-note samba,” said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. “It’s never their issues or their inclusiveness. Therefore, the solution is always to look for a better messenger for hard-core conservatism, ignoring the hard reality that some of their message, especially on social issues, is alienating large segments of the population in an increasingly diverse and moderate state.”
“There’s this tremendous disconnect,” commented one Richmond Republican hand of how the GOP has become more conservative even as Democrats have won two presidential races, two of the last three gubernatorial contests and both Senate seats. “It seems that both in Virginia and nationally the movement conservatives are getting more and more rabid and less enthralled with establishment conservatives like George Allen and more into the crusaders.”
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With all the Gov workers moving into or living there my guess is increaseingly no it isnt. It will be as blue as Maryland soon enough
ChunkyLover on December 26, 2012 at 4:00 PM
This “Richmond Republican” is aware that the GOP ran George Allen last month and lost, right?
Anyway, Virginia is a sad case. A southern state without a major city, and it’s going Democrat due to its lard addiction and people coming in from other states like MD.
forest on December 26, 2012 at 4:07 PM
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/12/26/10-states-poised-to-raise-minimum-wage/
davidk on December 26, 2012 at 4:08 PM
So now, after telling us during the election cycle that George Allen was a poor choice, the experts are asking why we’re turning our backs on people like George Allen?
Welcome to the media shell game. Under one of these shells, there’s an acceptable Republican. But no matter how many times you pick a shell, you never find acceptable Republican – because it’s a scam.
hawksruleva on December 26, 2012 at 4:09 PM
Democrats have a better turnout operation in VA. Barry turned out the minority pop in large enough numbers to put him and Tim Kane over the top. Obama had paid staffers everywhere in VA and elsewhere.
If the GOP is to win going forward, they’re going to have to start paying and organizing in rural areas to turn out votes like Democrats do in urban areas. They’re also going to have make politics as big a deal as the democrats do with paid staffing, training, and organizing of new activists.
Punchenko on December 26, 2012 at 4:09 PM
Virginia is really two states. There’s Northern and Eastern Va, which are mostly urban, government-oriented and liberal. And then there’s the rest of the state, which skews conservative.
hawksruleva on December 26, 2012 at 4:11 PM
That was apparently true in many states, but you’re right about Virginia. I gave money, and got tons of mailers, but nobody from the GOP ever contacted me to make sure I was going to vote. Team Obama didn’t take any chances; they talked to as many voters as they could, and made sure to tell all of those voters whatever they needed to tell them in order to get them to the polls.
hawksruleva on December 26, 2012 at 4:13 PM
VA is clearly a swing state right now. How it turns out is based on the Rs getting their acts together. I’m for giving Priebus another crack at the RNC, but let’s hope he learns something especially since it wouldn’t shock me at all if Priebus ends up running Ryan’s 2016 Presidential campaign.
Illinidiva on December 26, 2012 at 4:15 PM
Loudoun County voted for Obama. It’s rural. The problem is spreading. You take Philly out of PA, it votes Republican easily. Same goes for Michigan. But DC is not in VA, but it’s still voting Democrat. I think Virginia is gone. The conservative areas just have too few people and they aren’t growing.
forest on December 26, 2012 at 4:16 PM
It’s only Dec. 26, 2012. Ain’t seen nothing, yet.
Schadenfreude on December 26, 2012 at 4:17 PM
Virginia is starting to look a lot like Washington State: a state split between liberals and conservatives along geographic lines where the liberal side is getting bigger faster. Where it’s at now is no surprise; they were talking about it as a potential Democrat target during the 2004 campaign because of the beginnings of the very demographic trends we’ve observed over the last eight years. It’s obviously not as far gone as Washington is yet but if the trends continue as they have for the last decade then a decade from now….. the path to 270 gets narrower still.
alchemist19 on December 26, 2012 at 4:28 PM
Thanks for playing Larry, but we’ve heard your sorry excuse-making before. Political analysts have tried resorting to the same routine to explain away Romney’s defeat, who eschewed social issues, said the Chick-fil-A supporters weren’t part of his campaign, and told the Des Moines Register that he wouldn’t enact any abortion-related legislation, all while Fox News and WSJ were busily peddling the notion that social issues either didn’t matter anymore, or that we needed to shut up on them. It’s harder to get any more silent on social issues when the candidate’s decibel level is at zero.
Stoic Patriot on December 26, 2012 at 4:28 PM
If Conservatives would ditch their opposition to gay marriage, marijuana, abortion, and prostitution – then what’s left is a nicely distilled package of libertarian fiscal responsibility and individual freedom.
That’s something that could be SOLD to A LOT of people.
HondaV65 on December 26, 2012 at 4:35 PM
It would be a mistake to paint gov workers with such a broad brush. I know plenty of Defense Dept. employees who are pretty conservative.
RayinVA on December 26, 2012 at 4:37 PM
Senator Mourdock agrees that making social issues front-and-center is a winning proposition for the GOP.
alchemist19 on December 26, 2012 at 4:40 PM
Here’s an idea: condemn abortion without condoning rape. Novel concept, right?
Stoic Patriot on December 26, 2012 at 4:42 PM
All those rich Statists in NOVA sucking on the $4T a year Federal teat is turning the state blue.
p0s3r on December 26, 2012 at 4:56 PM
I live in Northern VA. I don’t see this state going GOP again unless you’re talking midterm elections because all of the disengaged morons stay home. Perhaps we can win presidential elections if we run a charismatic candidate with crossover appeal against a weaker D candidate but maybe not even. There are too many govt workers and immigrants who could give a chit about the Constitution, if they can even read it. We face impossible structural EC problems, I fear.
The Count on December 26, 2012 at 4:58 PM
The fact is Virginia’s population is 20% black. That’s why it went Democrat the last 2 presidential races.
ButterflyDragon on December 26, 2012 at 5:24 PM
Do not know the answer on Virgina, but Politico is still yet a red commie msm Democrat fraud, enabler, hack based operation.
APACHEWHOKNOWS on December 26, 2012 at 5:34 PM
Please find a dictionary and look up the definition of “condone”.
alchemist19 on December 26, 2012 at 6:12 PM
So I said to condemn abortion without treating rape as acceptable. If you’ve got a point to make, make it.
Stoic Patriot on December 26, 2012 at 6:24 PM
My point is either I missed something Mourdock said or you lack basic language comprehension skills. Mourdock never ever ever condoned rape or treated rape as if rape was acceptable. If you’ve got a “Rape is okay,” quote from him post it with a citation and I will apologize and eat my crow. What he actually did condone was forcing a woman to bear the unwanted child of her rapist because that pregnancy was God’s will. That’s a hard-line pro-life position, it was front and center in his campaign after he made his views known, it was in a state that is friendly territory for the GOP and it cost him the race. Losing issue.
alchemist19 on December 26, 2012 at 7:09 PM
If God is good, and we are supposed to abide by God’s will, then claiming that a pregnancy resulting from rape is God’s will in effect condones the act that made that pregnancy happen. To borrow a phrase from Akin, it literally made the case for legitimate rape. That’s why it burned Mourdock.
We can take a hard-line on abortion, even in the event of rape, on the grounds that two wrongs don’t make a right, that an innocent child shouldn’t be killed for the crime of another, and that if we’re determined to see someone die under those circumstances, we should kill the rapist. But what we cannot do is downplay the horror of rape.
Stoic Patriot on December 26, 2012 at 7:32 PM
So Mourdock condones rape if and only if that rape results in a pregnancy? Mourdock believes a just and loving God uses rape as a means to His end of that particular child being born but rapes that don’t result in pregnancy don’t get his seal of approval? Mourdock is dumb but I don’t think he’s that intellectually inconsistent. It seems more likely he just chose to punt on a moral issue that made him uncomfortable.
I’m not going to debate the issue of a rape exemption for abortions; I’m focused on the politics of it and that’s why I called it a losing issue. Here’s a general rule: if we support on the basis of morality any policy that compounds an easily-understood personal human tragedy and will produce victims who can tell their story on television then we are dead in the water. That includes but is not limited to things like forcing women to bear the children of their rapists and denying hospital visitation rights to gay couples. Our political enemies have a lazy, sycophantic media on their side, that media loves to put human misery on display, and REALLY loves to put human misery on display when it plays to the advantage of the Democrat Party.
alchemist19 on December 26, 2012 at 8:30 PM