Cooling down the fears of climate change
In short: We can now estimate, based on observations, how sensitive the temperature is to carbon dioxide. We do not need to rely heavily on unproven models. Comparing the trend in global temperature over the past 100-150 years with the change in “radiative forcing” (heating or cooling power) from carbon dioxide, aerosols and other sources, minus ocean heat uptake, can now give a good estimate of climate sensitivity.
The conclusion—taking the best observational estimates of the change in decadal-average global temperature between 1871-80 and 2002-11, and of the corresponding changes in forcing and ocean heat uptake—is this: A doubling of CO2 will lead to a warming of 1.6°-1.7°C (2.9°-3.1°F). …
Given what we know now, there is almost no way that the feared large temperature rise is going to happen. Mr. Lewis comments: “Taking the IPCC scenario that assumes a doubling of CO2, plus the equivalent of another 30% rise from other greenhouse gases by 2100, we are likely to experience a further rise of no more than 1°C.”
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We should probably destroy our economy and the industrialized world just in case though.
Meric1837 on December 19, 2012 at 11:54 AM
Al Gore does not support this conclusion.
Bitter Clinger on December 19, 2012 at 11:55 AM
No! No! This can’t be true!
If you really care, you’ll spread the message: Save Global Warming!
Catahoula on December 19, 2012 at 11:57 AM
Liberal Morons hardest hit.
So do you think that their will be any apologies to those many scientists who have been skeptical and have been smeared over the last 20 years?
No?
But why? Liberals are so understanding and accommodating!
/s
Bulletchaser on December 19, 2012 at 11:58 AM
But, but, there is a consensus!
trs on December 19, 2012 at 11:59 AM
Then why is Al Gore still sweating like a pig?
Pork-Chop on December 19, 2012 at 12:01 PM
Blasphemers!
Deniers!
What part of “settled SCIENCE” don’t these morons understand?
The UN has spoken on this and 423.7% of the worlds “real” scientists agree.
Frank Enstine on December 19, 2012 at 12:01 PM
It was a big money making scam and all those who benefited by pusshing this bs belong in jail.
Blake on December 19, 2012 at 12:04 PM
Sweating like a man-bear-pig is more like it…
JohnGalt23 on December 19, 2012 at 12:05 PM
I’m still prepared to save drowning polar bears though….. keeping an eye out just in case one floats by.
Cody1991 on December 19, 2012 at 12:06 PM
I have it on good authority that the lead researcher dated a person in jr. high that knew a person that had a grand uncle that was friends with a guy across town that knew someone that had a class mate that had a distant cousin that knew someone that dated a gal that eventually married a gas station attendant.
Follow the money folks. This study was paid for by big oil. The above linkage is undeniable.
I had my peers at work review this and 99% of the scientists agree that it is valid. Yes we have a consensus.
Frank Enstine on December 19, 2012 at 12:09 PM
My god, it’s worst than we thought. The GLOBAL STAGNATING HAS BEGUN!!! What kind of tax will save us?
MechanicalBill on December 19, 2012 at 12:11 PM
This has broken the GW bloc in half. There are those who will accept the new science and models based on evidence and their are those wedded to the church of GW who know that the only way to destroy Western Civilization is to shut down energy through policy based on hysteria.
They are in panic mode on sites I have visited, with most liberals gnashing their teeth that this info is coming from the very temple of GW itself. They are not sure what to do or how to combat this and as been pointed out to them, the mere fact that they can’t give up their desire for “transformative hysteria” is more revealing that they realize.
Bulletchaser on December 19, 2012 at 12:11 PM
I agree. The chain goes pretty high up.
This article is fairly recent, however the information was well known prior to the 2008 election. Oddly enough, no one wanted to discuss it.
Cody1991 on December 19, 2012 at 12:13 PM
The estimate from Lewis of 1.6°-1.7°C is still way too high. CO2 simply does NOT drive temperature, that’s the Sun’s job.
————
Axion on December 19, 2012 at 12:14 PM
Not to worry. There’s always the VAT.
Cody1991 on December 19, 2012 at 12:15 PM
Releasing that chakra takes a lot out of a guy.
CurtZHP on December 19, 2012 at 12:22 PM
I’m waiting a little longer before I dive into the skeptic and science forums. One skeptic forum I frequent is pretty much hard core AWG and that you cannot be a true skeptic if you don’t believe in AWG.
Frank Enstine on December 19, 2012 at 12:34 PM
Is that “SkepticalScience”? Because that site is operated by a college drop out and self-employed cartoonist. Not a scientist at all and certainly not skeptical.
MechanicalBill on December 19, 2012 at 12:51 PM
Looks like we can mostly rule out vastly increasing man-made CO2 for stopping the inevitable next Ice Age.
Knott Buyinit on December 19, 2012 at 1:32 PM
I use articles like this to cause shrieking and gnashing of AGW believers teefs. Its like knowing you have a class room full of kids that will throw up when you drag your fingernails across the blackboard. and you go do it.
Thanks, I needed some shadenfreud today. this will do just fine.
44Magnum on December 19, 2012 at 1:44 PM