Time to call the president’s budget bluff
While the president has a strong hand, he is overplaying it. Republicans have some leverage. They need to use it effectively.
• The president’s veto threat is a bluff. Without a new law, tax increases and spending cuts will likely increase unemployment to 9% and might trigger a new recession. Even if he could shift all the political blame for such a legislative failure onto congressional Republicans, Mr. Obama cannot afford to risk a new recession that would irreparably damage his second term. He can neither veto a budget-deal bill that Congress sends to him, nor can he allow Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to tie a bill up in the Senate. He can, however, try to bluff Republicans into giving away the store.
• The president’s proposal for more spending and taxation puts him to the left of many in his own party, and Democrats up for re-election are not lemmings looking to follow Sen. Patty Murray, who has welcomed a plunge over the fiscal cliff. Democratic Sens. Max Baucus and Mary Landrieu oppose the president’s proposal to increase the estate tax. Sen. Chuck Schumer has defined “rich” at $1 million of income, much higher than the president’s $250,000.
Blowback
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LIB
AH_C on December 3, 2012 at 8:31 AM
Why can’t he risk that?
When has Obama ever cared about other Democrats, and given what he has already gotten away with, why would anyone assume he is bluffing?
sharrukin on December 3, 2012 at 8:31 AM
Vote present. Make him own it.
Of course, I know they won’t do this because they’re actually intimidated when President Mom Jeans talks tough.
CurtZHP on December 3, 2012 at 8:33 AM
All these silly arguments are based on one faulty expectation.
1.) Obama is not reasonable and does NOT want to “deal”.
jake-the-goose on December 3, 2012 at 8:36 AM
Let.It.BURNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN…
If only we had Republican leadership who actually had a pair, not only would we not be in this situation now (thanks, McConnell!), but we would also expect that in this current negotiation – given the cards – we would walk away and give the Left the whole package they claimed last year to have wanted (that is, complete repeal of the Bush tax cuts).
Remind them day in and day out that they voted for bigger government, and that nothing short of Clinton-era taxes on everyone will do to make a “down payment” on the colossal debt the Democrats have created over the last four years…make them own it.
Wanderlust on December 3, 2012 at 8:40 AM
I think 0bama overestimates Democrats’ ability to foist the problem off on the GOP should we go over the cliff. I also think the sequestration deal contained some nasty surprises aimed at an incoming R Administration.
For example: Cutting defense is not an R priority. If sequestration cuts happen, and something goes boom, the Republicans will not be to blame, and 0bama can’t plausibly claim ignorance of the threat. The Democrats were, however, hoping to do to a Romney Administration what they did to George W Bush.
Bush barely found the Oval Office restroom key when 9/11 happened, and anybody who has planned so much as a trip to the grocery store could tell that the planning and logistics to carry out 9/11 were running long, long before the campaign, much less the election that carried Bush into the White House. Nevertheless, the Dems got eight years of slamming Bush for his lack of omniscience. If something happens now, 0bama has been in the office for four years. If they expected omniscience from Bush, how much more can be expected from a man who has had a whole four years of intelligence briefings (which by report he has not attended)?
Sekhmet on December 3, 2012 at 8:49 AM
LOL! The author is delusional. Has anything Zero has done in his 1st term suggested that he cares one bit about economic growth? All he wants is statism and income redistribution. That’s the only “legacy” he cares about.
Obama wants the fiscal cliff and that is exactly what will happen. Higher taxes, cuts in military, while entitlements are left untouched. It’s like the perfect Christmas present for far-left liberalism.
I blame Boehner and the idiots in the GOP establishment (National Review, etc) who pushed for this moronic “debt ceiling deal” back when the GOP actually had some leverage.
Norwegian on December 3, 2012 at 8:54 AM
Right. Because his election campaign could be damaged.
Washington Nearsider on December 3, 2012 at 8:56 AM
Why? He’s not running again, and he cares not a whit about the other Democrats who will be up for election in 2014. He’s done all the damage he can through Congress at this point. He knows he’s not getting a two-chamber majority again. At this point, his best bet for getting what he wants is to let us go over “the fiscal cliff.” Then everyone’s tax rates go up and the military budget gets cut, two things he wants to accomplish. The rest he will try to do by executive order and regulation, which he doesn’t need Congress for.
Shump on December 3, 2012 at 8:56 AM
Eh, Bark has a disdain for everyone and everything, you really believe he cares if the nation gets its collective teeth kicked in? The dude is jetting away to Hawaii for a dream vacation on the public dime at the precise time that the country is careening over the cliff, he’s already washed his hands of it all.
Bishop on December 3, 2012 at 9:08 AM
The time to call President Downgrades bluff was 4 years ago.
cntrlfrk on December 3, 2012 at 9:21 AM
L.I.B.
ProfShadow on December 3, 2012 at 9:24 AM
Jeepers. It’s almost as if Obama wants to do harm to the country or something.
LIB
justltl on December 3, 2012 at 9:25 AM
If the past four years haven’t been bad enough to wake people up, things need to get far worse.
rbj on December 3, 2012 at 9:56 AM
Not to be overdramatic, but if the Republican Party puts short term political survival over long term national solvency at this point, there’s a good chance it won’t have a political base left to rely on anyway. So does it really matter whether it has any political leverage?
Seth Halpern on December 3, 2012 at 10:05 AM
no. He would rather have a veto than a solution
Price is no object
They are willing to let business owners implode until the GOP capitulates
Somewhat correct. Right now Obama controls the arguments and the GOP reacts. They need to pass a small bill in the house, post haste, and then spend their time defending and promoting a real bill. Obama can dismiss the House bill, or argue against it, but now he will discussing GOP ideas. Notice the Senate is sitting silent like a snake. They obviously have less fear of the public than author suggests
I suggest this bill:
1. Extend unemployment to the max
2. Return the payroll tax for Social Security to the original level
Use the argument the Payroll Tax has to be restored to pay for the unemployment, since the current reduction in payroll forces the Social Security Administration to take money from the general fund to pay social security checks
3. People will complain about the increase in payroll tax. After they have complained, a Republican group will insist people with income under 100K get a credit on the increase in Payroll tax.
Then, spend you time arguing about your own bill, and move the arguments to Congress and away from the WH.
Stick to your own bill and keep itnarrow
The bill will not help finances one bit, but it will give the GOP a credibility for the next step, which should simply be a holding pattern. They accomplish this bill first, or no bill at all (use Obama’s tactic against him)
If this bill actually goes through, demand the Bush tax cuts, since they have now helped the worst off the the general public and now they need the tax cuts to create jobs. Government jobs will just deplete the Treasury which they just rescued for Social Security and Unemployment
entagor on December 3, 2012 at 10:20 AM
Hear is a little secret…come closer:
OBAMA WANTS THE ECONOMY TO COLLAPSE. Everything this man has done has been towards those ends. Research Cloward – Piven.
trs on December 3, 2012 at 11:08 AM