The internal polls that made Mitt Romney think he’d win
The numbers include internal polls conducted on Saturday, November 3, and Sunday, November 4, for Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Iowa, Colorado, and New Hampshire. According to Newhouse, the campaign polled daily, then combined the results into two-day averages. …
The first thing you notice is that New Hampshire and Colorado are pretty far off the mark. In New Hampshire, the final internal polling average has Romney up 3.5 points, whereas he lost by 5.6. In Colorado, the final internal polling average has Romney up 2.5 points; he lost by 5.4. “I’m not sure what the answer is,” Newhouse told me, explaining that his polls were a lot more accurate in most of the other swing states. “The only ones we had that really seemed to be off were Colorado—a state that even Obama’s people tweeted they thought it was going to be one of their closest states—and the New Hampshire numbers, which seemed to bounce a lot during the campaign.” …
Together, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Iowa go most of the way toward explaining why the Romney campaign believed it was so well-positioned. When combined with North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia—the trio of states the Romney campaign assumed were largely in the bag—Romney would bank 267 electoral votes, only three shy of the magic number. Furthermore, according to Newhouse, the campaign’s final internal polls had Romney down a mere two points in Ohio—a state that would have put him comfortably over the top—and Team Romney generally believed it had momentum in the final few days of the race. (You see hints of this momentum when you compare the Saturday numbers in each state with the Sunday numbers. Romney gains in five out of the six states, though Newhouse cautions not to make too much of this since the numbers can bounce around wildly on any given day.) While none of this should have been grounds for the sublime optimism that leads you to eschew a concession speech—two points is still a ton to make up in a state like Ohio in 48 hours—you see how the campaign might conclude that the pieces were falling into place.
Blowback
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My migraines were never so severe. I feel for you, truly. I’m still going through the med-board process and since I’m not a combat vet and I wasn’t in an accident the whole thing feels weird. I guess they have a point that my back problems and migraines (again, nowhere near as bad as yours) did start and get worse in the service, but I’m conflicted at being pushed through the process.
You may want to look into this as far as your migraines go. You might be a better candidate for a trial with the company than me, I’ve tried a couple times to get a unit.
Recently I took part in a migraine study through the Navy that used CO2 injected directly into the nostrils. It’s supposedly helping a lot of people. Might want to look into that as well (you wouldn’t even have to wait until it hit the market).
DeathtotheSwiss on November 30, 2012 at 8:11 PM
astonerii, that doesn’t sound like anything I’ve read about anyone’s VA benefits. Find a local AMVETs.
And stop picking on Kim Roy.
hawkdriver on November 30, 2012 at 8:18 PM
Sounds dangerous. Sending electricity through the brain to short circuit it. I use V!codin now. Works pretty good.
My migraines back then were worse than now. Now a long one is 9 days. That happens maybe twice a year. I think they were really just over lapping migraines/tension headaches back when I first got them. I was in the dark so long back then that I was incapable of going outside without some special sunglasses I had made to my prescription so dark that most people can see nothing through them.
Your back pain might work to trigger the migraines.
My migraines are multitrigger. The primary trigger is a tension headache that starts at the base of my skull and radiates both sides like a cap. This tension headache takes between 2 days and 3 days to progress. About 24 hours before it reaches my temples, I get a visible aura of thousands of black motes with a blue halos. Once it reaches my temple, it triggers a migraine that is significantly worse than the tension headache. From that point forward lights and sharp sound changes are a nasty event. The other trigger is light. Any degree of exposure to bright lights, equal to say a sunny day at the beech can trigger a migraine in as little as 5 minutes.
astonerii on November 30, 2012 at 8:25 PM
She/He started it. I figured Kim wanted the negative attention.
As for what I was told, it was at the Iowa City, VA center. I do not remember which service agency I used back then. I think it was the VFW.
astonerii on November 30, 2012 at 8:27 PM
So sorry to hear you are afflicted with the migraines. Number Three Son has much the same problem, had to drop classes every term when he got behind; finally quit after 6 years just 2 credits short of his BA; making them up now in Community College.
You have my deepest sympathy.
Hope you can get the VA benefits you need.
AesopFan on November 30, 2012 at 8:27 PM
Wait, were those the unskewed polls?
tommy71 on November 30, 2012 at 8:29 PM
When I was in Phoenix, I asked if they would let me go back to school. They said no. Used one benefit, no longer eligible for the GI.Bill benefits. I was thinking of doing the distance learning from I think North Dakota for a mechanical engineering BS. I calculated up the costs for finishing my degree there. It is about $27,000, Plus taking two weeks off to do the on site lab class that is required.
I was totally stupid back then apparently. I should have just not gone to school. Then again, I think without the AS, I never would have gotten my foot in the door for aerospace engineering.
astonerii on November 30, 2012 at 8:33 PM
http://distance.und.edu/degree/?id=mechengbs
Yup, that is the one. The only ABET accredited distance learning program I know of. Allowing me to work and learn at the same time. Just do not have the money to do it. Particularly lately.
astonerii on November 30, 2012 at 8:35 PM
As a migraine-sufferer myself, I can suggest one thing: Bite the bullet and do the elimination diet. They were about to put me on a daily medication, and it could have gone all the way to surgery.
Then I had an ulcer flare up, and couldn’t eat anything but crackers and water. My head never had it so good—As I added foods back, I found that peanuts were my trigger–PEANUTS! I live in Texas, flipping everything has peanuts. I suggest anyone with frequent migraines do this now, because your trigger could be something common as dirt in your diet.
Sekhmet on November 30, 2012 at 8:43 PM
I have done something similar. I am allergic to some pork (not bacon or peperoni for some reason). But the symptoms from eating more than a nibble of most other pork is usually left to just diarrhea, a small fever and some throwing up. That, Motrin, which put me in the hospital and Imitrix shots which I took for the first time at my dorm room, and it locked every muscle in my body up for a few hours, leaving me laying on the floor wondering if I was dead.
astonerii on November 30, 2012 at 8:48 PM
I am quite sure that was the limit of my push. You have been shrieking at people for the past three weeks about being progressives for supporting Romney at any and all levels. You admit it.
I’m not going through all those posts where you’re spewing bile.
kim roy on November 30, 2012 at 9:02 PM
It’s okay hawkdriver and thank you. astonerii and I have been bickering for weeks over the bile he/she have been spewing and because I cheerfully admit to advocating for Romney over Obama for reasons posted too many time, none of them positive towards Romney policies of lack thereof.
I don’t need attention. I’m just beyond tired of you screaming progressive at everyone who doesn’t share your opinion and your revisionist history issues.
kim roy on November 30, 2012 at 9:05 PM
I thought it was only a week. My bad
Anyways, sorry for upsetting you as much as I have.
You are right, I might have been painting with a bit larger brush than I should have been. I usually try not to look at people’s names and use that as a method of determining the value of their individual posts. That being said, I sometimes see certain arguments that remind me of past ones and having had already smashed them, go a bit deeper in resmashing them than I should.
astonerii on November 30, 2012 at 9:13 PM
Uh huh. And you wrote in Jefferson Davis.
Capitalist Hog on November 30, 2012 at 9:33 PM
No. You had a couple of really bad weeks. Fair enough and thanks. At this point being called liberal or progressive is the only thing that will irritate me.
It has been an ugly year all around with all the bickering and BS starting with the primaries and it is still going on. We all (me included) needs to stop and work together.
I’ve never disagreed with you on the basics – Romney is a RINO, progressive policies, etc.
It would have been nice to be able to work within the system to change things, but maybe hitting bottom will be just as good. Some people will get crushed and that’s the real shame and what I was hoping voting Romney might avoid.
Only my opinion, but you should take whatever is available to you and you’ve served for. It’s fine not to take those earned benefits (I refuse to call them entitlements to anyone who has served) and there is *NO* dishonor in taking something that will help you or make your life easier that you have earned. Please do consider looking into the things you were talking about.
You have EARNED it and there’s no shame.
kim roy on November 30, 2012 at 9:41 PM
Three reasons why you’re a coward.
1. You consistently wait for a thread to roll over into the archives before you unleash your last comment. Must feel good to think, at least in “your” mind that you finished the exchange. Pathetic.
2. You are absolutely incapable of saying something you want without beating around the bush. You want to call me a fake and a liar but you do not possess the intestinal fortitude to even speak your mind. You are like a cowardly little weasel scampering around nipping at your betters heels. There’s not a single Conservative on this site that isn’t your better. Both as a commenter and a person. You’re nothing.
3. Last, but not least, you’re a coward because you can’t just come here and express your liberal opinion for what it is and hope to convince people it’s a better way based on it’s merits. Nope, you’re a Moby and think you get better traction by lying about who and what you are. Complain about the campaign Romney ran after brow-beating Social Conservatives for months how much better Romney was than someone they supported. You crap is really not very hard to see through.
Grow some balls. Come here and say what you mean and mean what you say. Don’t be a chicken-shit little snake pretending you’re something you’re not. And just read the comments. No one buys it anyway.
hawkdriver on November 30, 2012 at 10:15 PM
Hawkdriver is 100% correct. Last word wins it.
DeathtotheSwiss on December 1, 2012 at 9:18 AM
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