The internal polls that made Mitt Romney think he’d win
The numbers include internal polls conducted on Saturday, November 3, and Sunday, November 4, for Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Iowa, Colorado, and New Hampshire. According to Newhouse, the campaign polled daily, then combined the results into two-day averages. …
The first thing you notice is that New Hampshire and Colorado are pretty far off the mark. In New Hampshire, the final internal polling average has Romney up 3.5 points, whereas he lost by 5.6. In Colorado, the final internal polling average has Romney up 2.5 points; he lost by 5.4. “I’m not sure what the answer is,” Newhouse told me, explaining that his polls were a lot more accurate in most of the other swing states. “The only ones we had that really seemed to be off were Colorado—a state that even Obama’s people tweeted they thought it was going to be one of their closest states—and the New Hampshire numbers, which seemed to bounce a lot during the campaign.” …
Together, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Iowa go most of the way toward explaining why the Romney campaign believed it was so well-positioned. When combined with North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia—the trio of states the Romney campaign assumed were largely in the bag—Romney would bank 267 electoral votes, only three shy of the magic number. Furthermore, according to Newhouse, the campaign’s final internal polls had Romney down a mere two points in Ohio—a state that would have put him comfortably over the top—and Team Romney generally believed it had momentum in the final few days of the race. (You see hints of this momentum when you compare the Saturday numbers in each state with the Sunday numbers. Romney gains in five out of the six states, though Newhouse cautions not to make too much of this since the numbers can bounce around wildly on any given day.) While none of this should have been grounds for the sublime optimism that leads you to eschew a concession speech—two points is still a ton to make up in a state like Ohio in 48 hours—you see how the campaign might conclude that the pieces were falling into place.
Blowback
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Genius, this guy I tell you. Absolutely genius.
HerneTheHunter on November 30, 2012 at 6:37 PM
Romney seemed so confident because i doubt he intended to win. Just another McCain to hand the black man another victory.
astonerii on November 30, 2012 at 6:38 PM
3476775 vote difference
Capitalist Hog on November 30, 2012 at 6:38 PM
*puts on tinfoil hat and hazmat suit*
I still think the final numbers seem off and with the allegations in Florida by West and other places, the lack of military voting, etc, it will always have me wondering what the real numbers are.
Whether it made a difference or not, who knows, but it certainly wasn’t a clean election by any stretch.
kim roy on November 30, 2012 at 6:38 PM
Schadenfreude approves this message.
Capitalist Hog on November 30, 2012 at 6:39 PM
Enough.
For the love of god…ENOUGH!
NeoKong on November 30, 2012 at 6:39 PM
he would have had to increase his vote total 6.9% to get even. SUCCESS.
MOST qualified candidate EVER!
astonerii on November 30, 2012 at 6:40 PM
QFT.
alwaysfiredup on November 30, 2012 at 6:46 PM
I’d like to know what the unweighted poll numbers were and the pollsters justifications for how they weighed it.
amazingmets on November 30, 2012 at 6:47 PM
Your life is going to be pretty damn sad if you walk around worrying about past-elections. Do you believe that there is anyway 3 million votes could be faked?
What proof do you have that elections boards or officers cheated?
I want to win next and it seems like the p******* in my party want to whine and act like irate team parents.
Romney lost. That hurt and it will continue to hurt, especially in the wallet. But in order to win one must be honest about the loss.
I’m competing this weekend in a tournament. I’ve trained to win. If I accepted my last loss (second place out of 12) as the judges’ fault I would not be ready for this weekend.
Learn to fight. Part of that means knowing how to lose. If Dems were acting as many Repubs I’d be calling them chumps too.
Allen West is a loser. His term was a black-mark on Republicans. He’s not a war hero. He’s a prick. He’s a 90-year-old crank in a pudgy body.
Capitalist Hog on November 30, 2012 at 6:50 PM
Non-voter herds not accounted for.
Count to 10 on November 30, 2012 at 6:51 PM
I hate to think that we were getting fed BS by Team Romney in those last weeks. Who else feels a little cheated?
I will donate time but not money next time around. I don’t care how much money you make. Nobody likes to waste money.
Has anybody every filed a class-action suit against a candidate for losing?
Capitalist Hog on November 30, 2012 at 6:54 PM
My sentiments exactly. Why are we still focusing on this aspect of the election? What are we to learn exactly? That the Republican pollsters should be fired? That some voter fraud took place, but not enough to explain three million plus votes?
I’m not getting it guys…now is when we should focus on the fight ahead, not continuously freaking out about the technical errors that were made.
DeathtotheSwiss on November 30, 2012 at 6:55 PM
So that’s why you voted for him and yet heckled the rest of us for saying the same thing you admitted – that Romney was better than Obama.
Why did you call me a progressive then if you agreed with me on that point?
And what does it have to do with his color? You almost sound… progressive… here by making it a point of contention.
BTW, yes, I agree you do suck.
kim roy on November 30, 2012 at 6:55 PM
What led me to believe Romney was going to win was every single poll, including CNN, showing Romney had independent voters by double digits. That right there means Romney wins. Turns out he only won indys by 5 points. Every single poll was wrong polling indys. Seems to me that someone was lying to pollsters or were answering polls who didn’t show up to vote.
National turnout was only about 60%. Obama lost 5 million votes from 2008.
But from the comments I am seeing above, we apparently have a lot of people who would rather see an establishment professional politician with a slick campaign running. Romney isn’t a professional politician and he didn’t come off like one either. But apparently, that is what people want. They want a used car salesman. Not me.
crosspatch on November 30, 2012 at 6:56 PM
You mean the polls that didn’t account for massive Democrat
voter fraud?
clippermiami on November 30, 2012 at 6:57 PM
Ah, I got a new stalker.
Feel free to show me the post where I did so, and I can review it. Otherwise, I got no clue what you are talking about.
You might want to see if the doctor can up the frequency or dosage of your meds in the meantime.
astonerii on November 30, 2012 at 7:00 PM
Considering you voted for Obama, your comment makes no sense. Which is standard.
hawkdriver on November 30, 2012 at 7:00 PM
Romney was a great candidate. I was actually very proud to have voted for him. Looking at the field, there was no one else who could have done as well.
hawkdriver on November 30, 2012 at 7:02 PM
So the managerial genius, (with a Veep who had command of the issues, baby!) was clueless.
Bob Dole had an excuse. McCain faced a perfect storm.
Romney? Fail Czar.
Mr. Wednesday Night on November 30, 2012 at 7:03 PM
I disagree. Perry or Newt would have done a better job.
astonerii on November 30, 2012 at 7:03 PM
DeathtotheSwiss on November 30, 2012 at 6:55 PM
Therapy, my friend. Theraf**Kingpy.
HerneTheHunter on November 30, 2012 at 7:03 PM
Well said.
hawkdriver on November 30, 2012 at 7:04 PM
Those too retarded to review history and learn the lessons already taught can rest assured they are stupid enough to repeat past failures.
astonerii on November 30, 2012 at 7:05 PM
I think we all wanted to give the American people the benefit of the doubt, particularly with the grandaddy of polling consistently showing Romney ahead. “Americans couldn’t really be that dumb, could they?” Yeah, turns out slightly more than half of us are.
The Count on November 30, 2012 at 7:06 PM
It’s funny. I was Romney before McCain last time and Perry before Romney this time. The only candidate I was almost sure would lose was McCain. I put all my hopes in the energy created by Palin. Perry’s not done yet.
But even with our differences we still need to hang tight. You can already see the folks here who’s only purpose here is to say they’re Conservatives and do everything they can to drive wedges.
hawkdriver on November 30, 2012 at 7:08 PM
Perry or Newt would have ensured that we wouldn’t have any say in the debt negotiations. It would have been handled by the incoming Pelosi-Reid congress.
The Count on November 30, 2012 at 7:09 PM
I was wondering, you said you were going 100% disability and using the GI bill? I was told if I went full disability they would not provide me any educational benefits…
astonerii on November 30, 2012 at 7:10 PM
Considering my prognostication about Romney was pretty much dead on, I think I will retain my view regardless of your baseless assertion. We likely would have the Senate right now if we had Newt. He seems to have a way of helping Americans find a reason to bring conservatives into office. How much coattails did Romney have in Massachusetts when he won? What happened when he left?
astonerii on November 30, 2012 at 7:11 PM
I was yanking a Moby’s chain about the disability. And I’m not sure about the School Benefits for you. I originally came in in 76 which fell under Viet Nam era benefits and then Montgomery. So mine are pretty different. Go to AmVets though and they can answer all those questions.
But sincerely, use everything you earned.
hawkdriver on November 30, 2012 at 7:15 PM
No, crap for brains, I want to know why you called me a progressive:
Well?
kim roy on November 30, 2012 at 7:16 PM
key piece to why they lost
r keller on November 30, 2012 at 7:18 PM
bad day….and i wish HA had an edit function…but this is better
key piece to why they lost
contrary to the fictions that were told about the deep pockets of campaigns doing heavy duty polling…maybe not so much. The only reason something bounces around wildly is that you have s*** sample size. O<?
and in the last week you are screwing around in swing states doing crap polling? Amateur.
i honestly think the key thing was the the party of Stupid thought they could not lose. I know barry has to Grow Up…but there's another party that has to get serious…although it is a little late for the stupid party to change its brand
r keller on November 30, 2012 at 7:21 PM
My mother suggested therapy once… ONCE!
Seriously though, I apologize in advance for the therapy you are going to need after you realize your mistake in voting for President Obama a second time. I deeply regret my part in your continuing ignorance and misunderstanding of basic economic and social principles that led you to believe that such a course of action was desirable. I should have worked harder and so I feel that it is only right for me to shoulder some of the blame. It was wrong for me to take for granted how obvious the case made by Governor Romney and Congressman Ryan was.
I’m sorry…so sorry.
I also want you to know that it’s not your fault. It’s not your fault that you weren’t equipped by nature with the ability to decipher what was clearly illogical and false information given to you by your chosen candidate. It’s not your fault that the school systems failed you when it came to basic economics, history and American government. I don’t blame you for your considerable short-comings, again I blame myself for not doing more to reach out to the knowledge impaired. I promise you that I will not let that happen again, that I will do my best to help you understand what is going on in the world so that you can live a longer and healthier life.
I hope you take some small comfort in my words, because I surely take a great amount in my giving them to you. I will be in touch.
DeathtotheSwiss on November 30, 2012 at 7:22 PM
I mean the original time I said it…
I call people progressive who tend to have progressive views. Supporting Romney is supporting a progressive. If you are heavily invested in Romney, you have to agree with his progressive policies, otherwise what about him do you support?
I never supported Romney, I voted purely against Obama (or more specifically, Obama with a DHS armed to the teeth and preparing for start killing American citizens) who is clearly a worse president.
As for Romney, I still think long term, him as president would have ended with the nation in worse shape 12 to 16 years hence. But, I voted against Obama, because my escape plan is not ready as of yet, next election it will be better set up and ready to roll.
astonerii on November 30, 2012 at 7:24 PM
I never supported Romney until after the primary. After that I advocated him solely on the basis ***THAT HE WAS BETTER THAN OBAMA*** and clearly said numerous times that he was the status quo. I also never agreed with his policies, only that he would cause LESS damage that Obama.
I did, however, advocate on Romney’s love of country and that he’d never leave for to die or promise flexibility to Putin. If you can show any kind of “heavy investment” beyond that, then I’d really like to see it.
You owe me an apology for totally misrepresenting what I have said and calling me a progressive for *your* misrepresentation.
kim roy on November 30, 2012 at 7:31 PM
I loved me some Romney. I’m a super-Progressive.
DeathtotheSwiss on November 30, 2012 at 7:33 PM
Goodness, you’re an idiot.
blatantblue on November 30, 2012 at 7:34 PM
What was the article so I can look it over. I am not going to apologize for something I am not sure I did.
If you are sure that was the limit of your push, then I admit it is not progressive.
astonerii on November 30, 2012 at 7:36 PM
This just further proves what I stated above.
Yea, Newt wouldn’t have had another “Kenyan, anti-colonial” moment.
blatantblue on November 30, 2012 at 7:37 PM
Who told you that? My PLEB made no mention of it.
I can’t find anything anywhere that suggests you’d lose out on your GI Bill either.
DeathtotheSwiss on November 30, 2012 at 7:37 PM
OK I take it back astonerii, you aren’t an idiot, but totally wrong.
blatantblue on November 30, 2012 at 7:39 PM
I supported Newt right up until he denounced Ryan at the very beginning. Romney, however, seemed to me the best alternative to Newt out of the bunch as far as his ability to make the case against President Obama and for Capitalism.
Newt’s “vulture capitalist” struck me the wrong way too.
Somehow I don’t think Biden or Clinton will be much of a threat in 2016, as much as that’s worth.
DeathtotheSwiss on November 30, 2012 at 7:46 PM
And in three years when someone here is calling me a bigoted, un-American idiot RINO for not supporting their Moderate Managerial Messiah I’ll have something to link to.
HE SAVEDD THE OLYMPISC!!!!!
29Victor on November 30, 2012 at 7:48 PM
THANK you.
When Newt started attacking Ryan I went from supporting Newt to “Buh-bye.”
That and the “Kenyan anti-colonialist” comment showed me he had ZERO message discipline.
Perry with the Bain attacks was repulsive, and Bachmann made those moronic slip ups, too.
All of Romney’s opponents fell under their own ineffectiveness.
blatantblue on November 30, 2012 at 7:49 PM
Only on a very limited number of topics in the world. This not being one of them.
1. Romney fought tooth and nail, spent a hundred million dollars to win a primary, where he used lies and more lies to slander his opponents. 99.9% negative advertisements where he called people out for things that had been proven false a decade or more earlier with irrefutable proof of falsity.
2. He deliberately ran a campaign that left the base out of all consideration and worked towards embracing progressives and left of center people.
3. He accomplished the least possible with the highest ever amount of money. yet we are told how awesome of a CEO he is.
4. He refused to back away from his RomneyCare going so far as to tout every last aspect of it that people hated about Obamacare it as aspects that he liked most about it and agreed with.
5. That completely neutered him on attacking the single biggest Achilles heel that Obama had, Obamacare and the public’s dislike for it.
6. In fact, Obama had many albatrosses around his throat, and Romney refused to let the weight of them do the work to pull Obama down. Benghazi was a very limited effort which he gave up on very quickly. Fast and Furious was barely a foot note anywhere. Even the deficits were not very front and center…
7. Romney’s performance went down instead of up as you would expect in debates. Let me guess, bad back, was taking meds?
8. You have nothing to fear from an Obama Presidency to nice guy that is just in over his head.
9. Paid 4 times the going rate for tv advertisements.
10. Spent millions of dollars for a program Called ORCA for get out the vote efforts and did not have a back up plan even though it was NEVER TESTED until election day, where it failed spectacularly.
11. Spurned Sarah Palin and her supporters.
12. Spurned Ron Paul and all his supporters.
13. Spurned conservatives in General and the Tea Party in particular and all their most ardent supporters.
14. Spurned pretty much every values voter on the conservative side and all their support.
15. Paid double for half the staff that Obama did. Cronyism is alive and well over there.
yet, people like you call him the most competent person to ever run for office and call me an idiot? Huh, funny that.
astonerii on November 30, 2012 at 7:50 PM
Yeah. I <3 Newt and figured he was the best of the bunch, but I was always worried that he was going to say something outrageous.
Of course, he also has the ability to go around the press and explain his words rather than letting the MSM set the narrative like Romney.
29Victor on November 30, 2012 at 7:51 PM
You mean the people who paid attention to the issues and spent time thoughtfully evaluating both candidates, VOTED FOR ROMNEY?
And the ones who were told who to vote because of Honey Boo Boo or their hiphop radio station, and likely had to be dragged to the polls (like Cousin Pookey) voted for Obama?
Really? REALLY?
I’m speechless. What a huge surprise!
jr.ewing.78 on November 30, 2012 at 8:00 PM
If you get a natural 100% disability they said you can go to school and even work to some degree. But if you have a disability like mine which is typically paid out lower than 100%, but due to its severe impacts on your ability to work they designate you 100%, then you cannot work at all and they also said I would not be able to use my school benefits.
I already used my disability school benefits, unfortunately, my migraines made it impossible to use them to good effect and ended up with an associated degree after 4 years (plus summer classes) to show for it. Who would have thought that a disabled vet would not be protected by Americans With Disability Act… Miss one class a B max, miss two a C max, miss three a d max, miss 4 and forget it. One migraine at the time last 29 days straight. One lasted 22 days. Several were in the 12 to 15 range. Needless to say, my GPA sucked.
astonerii on November 30, 2012 at 8:00 PM
Well, every poll underestimated black turn out, not just the internal polls. If not for the black turnout, Romney would have won. Just about every black person showed up for Obama. Republicans should gain in the midterms and hope they can take 2016. It’s going to be a though 4 years for certain, liberals won, and they think their votes changes the laws of mathematics.
Dollayo on November 30, 2012 at 8:08 PM
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