The president is bluffing
I think the President is bluffing on his veto threat. …
1. If there is no bill, the U.S. economy will probably dip into recession for much/most/all of 2013, and it’s impossible to predict whether such a recession would be short-lived.
2. A 2013 recession would be terrible for the country and terrible for the Obama Presidency. It would limit the President’s options across his entire policy agenda, economic and non-economic. And it could define and dominate his entire second term.
3. President Obama believes #1 and #2, and therefore avoiding the risk of triggering a recession with his veto is an even higher policy priority than his fiscal policy goal.
4. The President wants to get things done. He cares more about his own chances for policy success (across the entire breadth of his agenda, whenever he figures out what it is) than he cares about relative political blame. A scenario in which Republicans get most of the blame for a veto-triggered recession is still a loser for him if it means he can’t accomplish his second term goals.
If my assumptions are correct, then the President cannot afford to veto a bill and have no compromise enacted. Even if doing so increases dramatically the chance of getting his top fiscal policy priority, and even if he would bear only a small portion of the political blame for a legislative failure and the pain of broad-based tax increases, his veto would trigger a recession that would severely damage his agenda at least in 2013.
Blowback
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Your assumptions aren’t correct.
The Rogue Tomato on November 28, 2012 at 9:18 AM
A veto would mean he is vetoing Harry Reid and the democrats in the Senate. Why does everyone in the media continue to say the “Republicans in Congress” as if the Senate was Republican controlled?
Flange on November 28, 2012 at 9:21 AM
No he’s not. They will let all the cuts and tax increases go through, blame the Republicans, and then write a bill to restore middle class tax cuts and non-military spending and take the credit.
forest on November 28, 2012 at 9:22 AM
Besides, if the president was bluffing, he’d say “don’t call my bluff”. He’s a good con man, but a lousy poker player.
forest on November 28, 2012 at 9:23 AM
Bill or no bill, we’re going to get another dose of 2008-2009 style recession in 2013. This would have happened even if Romney had won.
No, it wouldn’t. The economic chaos of the last four years has had no appreciable electoral effect. A recession will be blamed on Bush and Republicans, especially since the Bohenerite Republican leadership meekly goes along it with it rather than hitting back.
Obama’s goal is to bankrupt the country and collapse the economy to create a new socialist utopia based on “social justice.”
Policy success for Obama is bankrupting the country. If there’s something he really needs done, as in the past, he’ll simply issue decrees and ignore Congress. Any legislative games are songs and dances put on for the benefit of the media and the political junkies and the party bases.
Doomberg on November 28, 2012 at 9:25 AM
The president is bluffing
Hmmm, I would say the Republicans are but, whatevah.
ToddPA on November 28, 2012 at 9:27 AM
Elections have consequences.
tommy71 on November 28, 2012 at 9:28 AM
I’m not sure what he would do .
But I’ve always said :
Don’t ever say ” he wouldn’t dare ” .
Lucano on November 28, 2012 at 9:29 AM
“Bluffing Republicans” is a pretty fair substitute for “Taking candy from a baby.”
PersonFromPorlock on November 28, 2012 at 9:30 AM
His top priority is nailing the US to the wall in every conceivable way.
Akzed on November 28, 2012 at 9:33 AM
Enemy-obama will choose the path of maximum destruction.
Pork-Chop on November 28, 2012 at 9:39 AM
Sorry but Obumummer wants to weaken the U S as much as possible. Make her an equal among nations, lead from behind (way behind others). Sooner we all wake up to this the better. He is not like all our previous presidents that worked (or tried to) for the good of the country. Stand by because more poop is coming our way this is just the first load.
Herb on November 28, 2012 at 9:39 AM
The President has no clue what causes a recession.
tomg51 on November 28, 2012 at 9:39 AM
Same reason they say “Bush Tax Cuts for the rich.”
forest on November 28, 2012 at 9:40 AM
Harry Reid isn’t going to pass this through the senate anyway. Nothing to veto. But it portrays Obama and the democrats as having a single purpose and the will to accomplish it, unlike the republican house, which Boehner does not seem able to control.
RINOs are people too on November 28, 2012 at 9:46 AM
The author seems to think that B.O. is trying to “save” America. Ha ha.
Clink on November 28, 2012 at 9:58 AM
Yep.
Obama views the United States as an imperialist, racist nation that was built on the backs of the slaves.
His goal is to destroy it.
justltl on November 28, 2012 at 9:58 AM
I understand the pro-obozo media doing that, but it seems the so-called “conservative” media does it as well. Harry Reid has been as obstinate as he can be, so any veto will be a veto of a Harry Reid supported bill. And you can bet Harry Reid will not support a bill where he is the only democrat voting for it.
By the way, has Harry Reid ever proven that he’s not a child molester?
Flange on November 28, 2012 at 9:59 AM
Cloward-Piven.
If it’s bad for the country, it’s good for…
vityas on November 28, 2012 at 10:06 AM
No, Reid has produced no evidence that he’s stopped.
forest on November 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM
LOL! How true. Nor does he have any idea how to stop one. That is why he is once again being “hands off” in these negotiations. He still has no ideas.
Night Owl on November 28, 2012 at 10:15 AM
These posts will save my precious typing fingers from overworking today…
Fallon on November 28, 2012 at 10:18 AM
+1000.
The Republicans have let the false “Blame Bush and the Republican congress” narrative go on for too long, and it cost them dearly in the 2012 election, including the White House.
I recall in 2008 when the subprime housing market collapsed, dragging the rest of the economy down with it, Pelosi and the other Democratic leadership quickly got in front of the cameras and blamed Bush and Republican policies for the problem, knowing full well that the Dems had control of the House and Senate since 2007, and were in charge of overseeing banking, finance and housing. The Republican response? Crickets chirping.
Somebody with some balls should have quickly come back with a reality check, pointing out that the CRA was at the root of the problem, and that the Democrats were diddling themselves and ignoring the warning signs for years while Republicans were taking notice that there were big problems looming.
But it’s probaly too late for them to do anything about it now. The history books are already being written by leftist Historians who won’t tell the truth about what really happened.
UltimateBob on November 28, 2012 at 11:24 AM
However, this all assume Comrade Chairman Obama is economically rational.
Dear Leader doesn’t understand anything other than Marxist/socialist economics and no longer cares about the free market economy. He is now more flexible to implement fundamental change — government control over as much of the economy and GDP as possible in the interest of “social justice” — and he thinks a bad free market economy will help make that happen if he can shift blame to the GOP and those greedy selfish capitalists. The megalomaniac thinks he can do that, with the help of useful idiots like Buffet.
The economic stupidity and ignorance of the electorate has been confirmed. It reelected a class warfare socialist demagogue who doesn’t care about trillion-plus dollar deficits as far as the eye can see. It is easily gullible and stupid enough to blame the GOP and those greedy selfish capitalists for any and all economic problems
farsighted on November 28, 2012 at 11:37 AM
Anyone that hasn’t read cloward-piven yet, should. Then google francis fox piven-WH visitors log.
All is going as planned.
wolly4321 on November 28, 2012 at 11:49 AM
this
Which is why the GOP needs to pass separate bills, one extending highest tax rate, the other extending all the rest. Put Dems in the position of letting everyone’s taxes go up.
commodore on November 28, 2012 at 12:28 PM