Pennsylvania could be in play for the GOP in the future
But if the trends of the past few election cycles continue, and Democrats continue to make gains among minorities and with white voters that have high socioeconomic status, while Republicans perform strongly with working-class whites, then Pennsylvania could become more and more pivotal – and perhaps even essential to the Republican electoral math.
If so, it is a state that Republicans will want to concentrate on from the earliest stages of the campaign. And their nominee will need to build a robust turnout operation there, since the strategic imperative in inelastic states is not so much in persuading swing voters but in getting the party base to the polls.
This may particularly hold in Pennsylvania, where the messages that appeal to voters in the central and western portion of the state could turn off those in the Philadelphia suburbs. It’s not enough to persuade those voters, you also have to turn them out.
Democrats turn out a high percentage of their voters in Pennsylvania, and have won at least 2.9 million votes there in each of the past three elections. Republican performance peaked in 2004, when George W. Bush won almost 2.8 million votes. In a close national race, Republicans will need to identify and turn out another 200,000 voters or so to win the state.
Blowback
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No offense to Pennsylvania, but they can go Fluke themselves. They’re a constant tease in these national elections. The only scenario in which the GOP Presidential ticket should spend a single minute in that state is if O-I-H-O and Virginia are looking so locked up for the them in the polls that they don’t need to sweat those EVs. In that situation, PA would just be to pad the final margin.
4 more years of Obamanomics and that could very well be the case.
Doughboy on November 24, 2012 at 9:19 AM
I am now inclined to believe everything he says.
joepub on November 24, 2012 at 9:19 AM
Maybe if activist judges don’t suspend ID laws we might have a shot. OTOH, you’re kidding yourself if you think that any of these Philadelphia wards will ever enforce them.
The Count on November 24, 2012 at 9:19 AM
C’mon, Nate, you earned the right to rub it in a little, but trolling? Even for a Times writer, that’s low.
HitNRun on November 24, 2012 at 9:21 AM
I am ready to win Pennsylvania! 2016, here we come.
bluegill on November 24, 2012 at 9:25 AM
Kick that football, Chuck!
boone on November 24, 2012 at 9:31 AM
I could be very bullish on PA, but first we have to figger out how to limit Philthadelphians to one vote each.
petefrt on November 24, 2012 at 9:36 AM
I am sure we can find another person to run on the Republican ticket that has attacked coal.
“That plant, that plant kills people!”
Pennsylvania will will be a forgone conclusion!
astonerii on November 24, 2012 at 9:36 AM
The key to winning PA is pain for the upper middle class types in the Philly burbs. Obama will deliver.
Also more presence at the polls in democrat areas.
forest on November 24, 2012 at 9:40 AM
Ain’t gonna happen. Not while the Democrats can get away with throwing out Republican poll watchers and adding thousands of Democrat votes in Philly.
Seriously, folks. It is not going to matter who we run or what our message is if the Democrats get to control voting. Forget about Hispanic outreach. Forget about running a great RINO or a great conservative. It won’t matter whether the GOP outspends or out performs Democrats. Just isn’t going to matter. Not as long as we ignore voting fraud.
The GOP needs a “coming to Jesus” moment hear. Yes, Virginia, voter fraud is real and it actually matters. Sorry to make you cry. Other wise the Democrats wouldn’t be doing it. How stupid are we going to be. Putting our freaking head down 20 feet into the sand. Total 100% disconnected from reality.
Yes.. poll watchers get thrown out but it doesn’t matter. Yes.. we see the undercover videos of Democrats voting 16 freaking times and plotting mass fraud but it isn’t real.
Gosh.. had the Republicans thrown out Democrat poll watchers in 59 precincts anywhere in the US we’d be having hearings from now until coming of Jesus! They’d write books about it and we’d see Hollywood movies about the widespread corruption in the GOP.
But Democrats openly throw Republicans out onto the streets and we can barely even get Rush Limbaugh to spend more the 60 seconds talking about it.
JellyToast on November 24, 2012 at 9:42 AM
This is where the fraud occurs. After the GOP poll watchers are thrown out by Dem thugs, the Dems run up the vote tally by “voting” all the names of the dead, moved, and non-voting people. By the time the GOP comes back with a court order, the damage is done.
One GOP poll watcher was physically thrown out of the polls. Sure, she can file a criminal complaint, but it’s her word against a bunch of Dems, and it doesn’t matter months later. The thug probably has a few simple assault convictions, anyway.
Wethal on November 24, 2012 at 9:46 AM
Silver has been crowned the election predictor pope, and in his mercy, is reaching across the aisle. Here pubs, take a tissue, I’ll give you a bit of hope.
tommy71 on November 24, 2012 at 9:49 AM
Whatever. Let’s not worry about PA or 2016 right now. I don’t think we can win a national election again.
Timin203 on November 24, 2012 at 10:10 AM
Once people actually feel the pain of depression that the media can not hide it and SNAP cards can not cover. All 50 state will be in play.
In the end re-elected was the worse thing that can happen for the Democrats if the right lets it be, as after 8 years everyone will have forgotten the 2008 recession and Bush to blame, The 2013-14 full depression would make them rename the 30′ great depression to lesser depression and 14 the real great depression.
tjexcite on November 24, 2012 at 10:11 AM
All we have to do is overcome the net +465,000 votes the Democrat will get out of Philly…
Even with Pittsburgh, Scranton, Allentown, Harrisburg, Erie, and limo libs in the Philly burbs, PA is a solidly Republican state.
That half million votes from Philly is tough to overcome. Put that city in any state except maybe Texas, and it goes blue.
forest on November 24, 2012 at 10:18 AM
Democrat cheating and fraud have made a mockery of elections. We can’t win against that.
darwin on November 24, 2012 at 10:23 AM
The GOP should start investing in “community organizers” to troll for every vote in rural counties and the suburbs. We need to start dragging folks to the polls like the Democrats.
Punchenko on November 24, 2012 at 10:30 AM
I won’t pull it away Charlie Brown
I really won’t
I really promise this time!
dentalque on November 24, 2012 at 10:42 AM
Until then, I want them to SUFFER greatly.
bob77 on November 24, 2012 at 10:52 AM
As a Philly burb resident, I’ve been made permanently skeptical of GOP efforts here. I can tell you that Dubya would have won the state in ’04 if not for the pervasive “He’s gonna bring back the draft!” rumor, which animated everyone around me to extent that I’ve never seen and that people who live in Bush country can scarcely understand. Whites around here are of the highly paranoid and skeptical Catholic persuasion.
But that 2 point loss is as close as I can imagine a Republican coming in the current environment. The fact is, there are just too many minorities and white liberals in Philadelphia for the Republicans to actually win, and too many conservative voters in the rest of the state for the state to ever seem out of reach.
One thing is certain, though: the GOP needs to work on turning ONE of these light blue states purple. If not PA, then MI or WI or MN. This election has made clear that the GOP cannot count on the FL + VA + OH + 1 strategy. It’s too easy for the Dems to smother. VA fell to the left of Ohio this year for probably the first time in living memory. What are we going to do when there’s *two* Ohios (i.e. somewhat hostile states) that must be won?
HitNRun on November 24, 2012 at 11:29 AM
Would be nice. The GOP needs to expand the map, because their footprint is increasingly shrinking.
changer1701 on November 24, 2012 at 11:45 AM
Fool’s gold.
Blaise on November 24, 2012 at 12:18 PM