As you can see, only five states moved in Obama’s direction and there are explanations for each.

New Jersey and New York: This is probably the result of a Sandy bounce.

Louisiana and Mississippi: Unless there is a broader trend I’m missing, this is most likely not so much movement in 2012 but instead urban voters still displaced from Hurricane Katrina in 2008 that had finally returned home by this election. That could be wrong, but that’s my guess.

Alaska: Sarah Palin bounce in 2008. Interestingly, Arizona did not see a similar crash in 2012.