The GOP’s 1988?
Republicans face a comparable moment now. The vast majority of party strategists considered President Obama a uniquely vulnerable target, who had provoked a fierce ideological backlash from white conservatives over his stimulus and health care legislation, and who struggled against the headwind of the grudging recovery from the Great Recession. And yet, despite a narrow margin in the popular vote, Obama became the fourth Democratic nominee in the past six elections to capture at least 332 Electoral College votes. No GOP nominee since the elder Bush in 1988 has won more than the 286 that his son carried in 2004.
Like Democrats after Reagan’s 1984 landslide, most Republicans viewed Obama’s resounding 2008 victory (the most decisive for a Democrat since 1964) as a personal, not party, triumph unlikely to be repeated. From the Romney campaign to Fox News, the fundamental miscalculation in Republican ranks was that the 2008 electorate, with its huge participation by minorities and young people, was a onetime anomaly powered by Obama’s charisma and the singular excitement surrounding the first African-American nominee. Senior Romney advisers, echoed by conservative commentators, expected the electorate in 2012 to look more like 2004, when it was older and whiter and thus more evenly balanced between Republicans and Democrats.
Blowback
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If it’s a personal triumph for Obama, than it’s even worse than we may have thought. The guy’s an absolute idiot. A Muslim Marxist who has the personality of a rock.
If we can’t beat this nothing of a man, how are we ever going to beat someone more formidable and attractive like an Andrew Cuomo or Tim Kaine.
Maybe electoral politics isn’t the answer for us libertarians and conservatives. Maybe the secession thing should seriously be considered. Let’s just separate ourselves from socialist America before it’s too late.
ericdondero on November 16, 2012 at 6:10 PM
Not a bad comparison, but I didn’t much care for the insinuation that we’re all racists who need to become moderates in the next election.
vegconservative on November 16, 2012 at 6:13 PM
Meh, it only helps our side for them to pick on white voters and those who vote for economic freedom and not handouts. FWIW: Obama lost young white voters and was edged out by Romney with college-educated voters.
Of course, I don’t expect Ron or his ilk in the dying mainstream media to reflect on those developments.
Punchenko on November 16, 2012 at 6:19 PM
Romney was the most near perfect candidate we Republicans could ever come up with. If we can’t win with him, why do we think we can ever win again. The country has taken a hard turn left towards communism/socialism.
We’ve got two choices: We become socialist lite like the Tories in the UK, or we just separate ourselves from the rest of the U.S.
Secession might be good. But for me personal separation from Democrats is the answer. Stop hiring Democrats. Stop buying products made in blue states. Stop dating Democrat women. Stop associating with Democrat family members. There’s enough of us to have our own separate country within a country.
ericdondero on November 16, 2012 at 6:22 PM
I’d say this was our 2004. Romney was more our John Kerry, running against a President Bush who most thought would lose. The dems were crushed. They wondered How Bush could have got reelected. People yelled “voter fraud!” and the Conservatives laughed and sneered at the libs.
portlandon on November 16, 2012 at 6:22 PM
Sigh. I miss laughing and sneering at the libs.
I agree that it was like ’04 with another New England patrician losing to a somewhat disastrous president who enough people want to have a beer with.
But what makes this election different — and scary to some extent — is the level of division and polarization in our country coupled with a worsening global economy. It’s been a real roller coaster ride these past 12 years.
Punchenko on November 16, 2012 at 6:40 PM
Agree.
Many paralells to 2004:
1. 51-48%
2. Vulnerable incumbent wins by getting his base out
3. Opposition Party nominates what they think is an “Electable” nominee from Massachusetts
Buah won in a true landslide in 1988 (400+ electoral votes). Obama actually lost ground in both electoral votes and popular votes.
Norwegian on November 16, 2012 at 6:48 PM
portlondon. Agree with that although I don’t agree with your Bushie shilling. Lots of Rs have already discussed ways to reform the party and don’t see it as personal. Also, while on a superficial level, the R.candidates are much more appealing than the Ds in 1988. Marco Rubio is complete fluff but boy is he cookie cutter perfect for low information voters.
Illinidiva on November 16, 2012 at 7:14 PM
I think the Democrats have overreached and are on the brink of a 2014 disaster. Lets look at this objectively:
We are much better off in 2012 than we were in 2008. We have more seats in Congress than we had after 2008, we gained governors and state legislatures from even 2010.
The worst of the Dem policies were set to take effect in Obama’s second term. People are going to start losing jobs in a serious way come January. By this time next year, a lot of people are going to be sick of the word “Democrat”.
Going into 2014 we are going to have a lot of unemployed people who are going to be very angry. The friends and neighbors of these people are going to be angry, too.
There is going to be a lot more reason for people to vote against Democrats in 2014 than there was in 2010. This could be a bloodbath for the Dems because they have severely overreached. Many of the Democrats’ core constituencies are turning against them.
In 2012 with a D+6 electorate, Obama won only a 1.5% victory. He lost a lot of his own voters.
Forget how the media is playing this, look at the numbers. The Democrats are not at all in that good of shape.
crosspatch on November 16, 2012 at 7:15 PM
Didn’t we think that was the case a couple weeks ago too? I don’t think people worry about unemployment as much as they used to since now they can get 2 years worth of unemployment checks.
8 weight on November 16, 2012 at 8:39 PM