All is not lost: The political landscape after 2012
The simple truth is that this election turned out pretty much the way that the economic models suggested it should. The GOP had deluded itself into believing that 2012 was a “gimme” — and to be sure, it was winnable. Team Romney made some mistakes and failed to capitalize on opportunities. But overall, the result wasn’t out of line with what we’d expect from a tepid economy (this also cuts against the “demographics” argument; if demographics were becoming the GOP’s main problem, the GOP would increasingly run behind what the economy suggested it “should”).
Of course, this tells us nothing about where we go from here. It may well be that 2012 heralds a new coalition (which has been predicted since 2001) that pushes the party inexorably downward from what will eventually be remembered as a peak. Or it could be that we are seeing the emergence of a “presidential,” pro-Democrat electorate and a “midterm,” pro-GOP electorate.
Or it could be, as Sides reminds us, that we are just seeing an “Obama coalition” that is specific to him. Put differently, 2008 happened, as did 2012. But so did 2009 and 2010. As Sides succinctly put it, “a realignment doesn’t take midterm elections off.”
Blowback
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That’s possible. I think also with the media providing cover and the electorate still blaming Bush more than Obama for the economy, that gave him enough of a cushion to survive. Something tells me if/when the economy crashes in his 2nd term, the public won’t be quite as forgiving.
Doughboy on November 16, 2012 at 7:48 PM
I think it’s likely this is an ‘Obama coalition’…a boring old white guy isn’t capturing demo numbers like that.
changer1701 on November 16, 2012 at 7:54 PM
I call B.S. on Mr. Trende. 2012 was a castastr0phe of the highest magnitude. The United States of America committed suicide on Nov. 6, 2012. 236 years of an experiment in individual liberty kaput!
Electoral politics has failed libertarians and conservatives. There are too many takers stealing from hard-working taxpayers.
Time to separate ourselves from blue state America. Di-vorce, De-friend and De-employ any and all Democrats in your life. That’s our only path forward now. Complete separation from blue state America.
ericdondero on November 16, 2012 at 7:55 PM
The GOP is doomed and so is America… over my lifetime(born in the mid-80s) we’ve turned from being a people into a population… anyone who still considers themselves a “patriot” should be looked down with pity. Anyone who would be willing to sacrifice for anything outside his immediate family is an idiot.
The only possible way to win is to quit… and the only hope is for the game to collapse… ironically, fighting will only keep the system going and reduce the actual chance of victory. If you don’t get pessimistic now and follow through with it, you’ll have no chance of optimism in the future.
ninjapirate on November 16, 2012 at 7:58 PM
BTW, the best thing that could ever happen to people who vote for the GOP is to abolish the GOP… and hope the Dems follow suit.
Social conservatives and immigration restrictionists would have a much easier time getting their initiatives passed if there were no political parties. Representative Democracy has too weak of an immune system that allows it to be hacked and hijacked. What has happened to this country could not have happened under direct or non-party based representative democracy.
ninjapirate on November 16, 2012 at 8:02 PM
http://www.amazon.com/Democracy-Economics-Politics-Monarchy-Natural/dp/0765808684
ninjapirate on November 16, 2012 at 8:04 PM
Or it could be this or it could be that.
Hey, maybe it’s nothing more than the fact that the GOP didn’t run a conservative candidate, and the Romney message wasn’t conservative enough. In the last week, Romney was saying “I’m going to reach across the aisle and work with Democrats.”
Look, after Romney got the nomination I vowed I wasn’t going to vote for him. Of course I did. I came around after a month but I know I wasn’t the only one who felt this way. Romney was the author of ObamaCare. Why isn’t that in the analysis? Why doesn’t that play into anything? No, all these people who write what the GOP should do next ignore the fact that Romney is a moderate, that ObamaCare was modeled after RomneyCare, and that Romney made working with the Democrats a central issue of his campaign.
But with all of that… even if Obama didn’t win by fraud… 60,000,000 people voted against Obama. Why do the people who wrote these analyses act like those 60,000,000 people just disappeared all of a sudden? Like they all turned into socialists after the election!
60,000,000 people did not drink the kool-aid! Only 3,000,000 more voted for Obama. That is not a massive culture shift.
JellyToast on November 16, 2012 at 8:12 PM
“Valley of Hopelessness” about describes the “political landscape”.
Where’s your up-and-coming star for 2016?
What’s your message besides “they’re spending too much?”
MelonCollie on November 16, 2012 at 9:11 PM
This is so silly. Get this through you heads: Obama won because he was able to mobilize the black vote to turn out in numbers nobody expected. If not for that he would have lost this election. Will dems still be able to mobilize the black vote like they did in 2008 and 2012 when Obama is not on the ballot and after 4yrs of failure? Maybe, but probably not, for proof I ask you to look at the election between the these 2 elections with Obama running, namely, 2010. Republicans don’t need to change everything and turn into liberals. First of all, that won’t work even if we tried, we would only lose our base and not get the liberals to vote for us anyway. Secondly, many blacks will give up if they find themselves not moving up economically after 8yrs of Obama. If republicans hold their ground on their core issues they should have no problem winning again, the pendulum will swing back as long as we don’t listen to nonsense like this.
Dollayo on November 16, 2012 at 10:17 PM