Pollster: “I was drinking that Republican Kool-Aid”
“To say that I’m unhappy would be an understatement,” said Harry Wilson, head of the polling center at Virginia’s Roanoke College, which projected 5-point Virginia wins for both Romney and GOP Senate candidate George Allen on Oct. 31. Romney lost the state by 3 percentage points, and Allen lost by 5. “I was drinking that Republican Kool-Aid,” Wilson said.
Wilson and other pollsters cited the same miscalculation: an assumption that the electorate that showed up Nov. 6 would be older, whiter and more Republican than the one that actually turned out. Obama’s victory in 2008, juiced by higher-than-normal turnout by young voters and minorities, was seen as an aberration, unlikely to be repeated in a struggling economy…
Paleologos said his decision to stop polling Florida, Virginia and North Carolina was based on limited resources and a desire to poll Colorado and Ohio, but also on “the incumbency rule,” a long-accepted premise that if an incumbent cannot rise above 47 percent or so in head-to-head polling, he is unlikely to win.
“What I’ve learned is that there’s a new norm,” he said. “The incumbency rule does not hold, at least in Florida and Virginia.”
Blowback
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Well, as long as it’s not grape…
Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on November 14, 2012 at 3:58 PM
A lot of us were, unfortunately. We underestimated the strength of the cult of personality and the ability of the Lightbringer to work his magic on the great unwashed.
changer1701 on November 14, 2012 at 3:58 PM
You also underestimated the growing number of people in this nation who don’t think elections really matter at this point.
Willard or Ogabe – really doesn’t matter – we’re still hittin’ that wall baby!
HondaV65 on November 14, 2012 at 4:01 PM
In other words, “It’s hard to account for fraud.”
MobileVideoEngineer on November 14, 2012 at 4:01 PM
“Republican Kool-Aid”?
Translation: he screwed up, but rather than taking responsibility for his own actions, he’s blaming Republicans. Where have I heard that before?
malclave on November 14, 2012 at 4:06 PM
You’d be wrong to swing the other way. Those votes that didn’t show up for Romney will be there in 2016.
Rocks on November 14, 2012 at 4:07 PM
If, you know, there is an election in 2016.
Right Mover on November 14, 2012 at 4:14 PM
Bottom line 3 million Republicans stayed home. Massive Fraud in certain Pennsylvania and Ohio Precincts.
Polls from now on also need to add 2% to all Polls from now on to account for the dead vote, and all the extra bags of ballots found in democrat car trunks, freezers or in printing machines.
You realize the was 1 precinct in OH (heavily GOP) that had ZERO votes. While there were several precincts in Cleveland that had ZERO Romney votes, and those 60 or so precincts in Philly that also had ZERO votes.
Probability of such an event occurring is ZERO.
Even Larry Sabato called the results, mathematically impossible.
Raquel Pinkbullet on November 14, 2012 at 4:19 PM
That’s the dumbest excuse for your Obama vote I’ve heard yet.
changer1701 on November 14, 2012 at 4:20 PM
They will? If people couldn’t manage to get out there this time, not sure why they’d bother 4 years from now.
changer1701 on November 14, 2012 at 4:22 PM
Exactly.
If they didn’t realize the importance to the Republic of this past election, chances are they will be good and compliant sheep after 4 years of the new normal…they will just accept it, and we’ll be too deep into a changed system to change it back.
Thanks a lot apathetic or purist D-bags.
Mimzey on November 14, 2012 at 4:31 PM
So much licking of wounds. And stats. Is there anyone out there who can explain 8 of the 10 richest counties in the U.S. voting for Pres. Obama? Minorities, okay. Unions, gotcha. Women, fair enough. But what is the meaning of the aforementioned fact (or truthiness), and these:
Iowa–93% white. 51% voted for O
New Hampshire–93%white. 51% voted for O
Rural NH–57% voted for O
Mr. Obama also won in the farmlands of Dubuque, Iowa and in Janesville, Wisconsin–Paul Ryan’s home town! Overall, the Preezy did better with white voters in the
swingstates-that-matter: Co., IA, MN, WI, and NH than either John Kerry or Albert Gore.That is the story I’d like Karl Rove (or other smart folk) to tell. Please leave your own chagrin/butthurt out of it.
Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on November 14, 2012 at 4:35 PM
The people who didn’t vote are not people who pay close attention to politics. They vote based on feeling, mostly personal about the candidate. They have stopped liking Obama since 2008 but they didn’t like Romney either. 2016 with no incumbent will be a high interest election. I would think both candidates will out pace Obama’s number’s this year and the winner will likely outpace Obama’s numbers from 2008.
Rocks on November 14, 2012 at 4:41 PM
Me too but now I’m starting to see the light. I have decided to retire early, sell my home and begin investigating every possible government program and handout I can find. Since being a bum is the new patriotism I intend to do my part for the country. Give me some of that free stuff and keep the Republicans from making me go back to work. Viva La entitlements.
MikeA on November 14, 2012 at 4:46 PM
There are lies, damn lies, and statistics and now false polls and completely rigged elections. Sorry I don’t buy any of the BS you stated about who voted for whom. I’m not buying it. We’ve lost everything, but most won’t figure that out until it’s too late.
bgibbs1000 on November 14, 2012 at 5:20 PM
Please, stop it already. I’m getting sick of all the so-called new and brilliant media jumping on the bandwagon and pretending that the vote was legitimate, while completely ignoring all the evidence of massive voter fraud.
The answer to your question is …
They DIDN’T vote for Obama. Simple. Florida did NOT vote for Obama. Ohio did NOT vote for Obama. Philly did NOT vote 100% or 99% for Obama. It simply didn’t happen. St. Lucie County did NOT vote out Allen West unless you count the bogus 41% vote that was added. STOP IT ALREADY! Until the GOP and the cowardice so-called conservative journalists stand up demand a stop to it, you will NEVER win another Presidential election again.
I’m beginning to just think Americans are stupid. Maybe it’s all the drug abuse. All the chemicals have done so much damage it’s impossible to recover.
Get your heads out of your @$$es and stop posting these stupid articles about how the polls were wrong. Otherwise, get used to living in Venezuela.
Gregor on November 14, 2012 at 5:20 PM
Sorry not buying that BS either. You guys can believe the state run polls and media if you want, have at it.
bgibbs1000 on November 14, 2012 at 5:23 PM
This election was stolen.
No Kool-aid need when there is massive voter fraud going on. 108% of eligible voters in OH. 141% in FL. Intimidation in PA. 100% of the vote going for Obama in certain PA districts.
nazo311 on November 14, 2012 at 5:29 PM
It just couldn’t be that the GOP put forward a crappy candidate. It just COULDN’T be. I mean, Ham Sandwich could beat Obama!!!!
Riiiiiiight. Friggin’ geniuses.
ddrintn on November 14, 2012 at 5:55 PM
From everyone that has ever worked with Republicans?
Mmm...Burritos on November 14, 2012 at 6:08 PM
Err …, yeah, because Obama was such a fantastic candidate, and Joe Biden is a friggin genius. That’s it. Your candidate was just better than Romney. And so successful too. Everyone loved him.
Try this. Ask 100 random people in the mall who they voted for and check the answer. Even better yet …
Go to the the poorest ghetto in Philly and walk around for two hours. Ask 100 people who they voted for and see if 100% say Obama. I would bet the answer is no. I would bet the percentage in Philly would be extremely high, but 100%? Not a chance.
I work with quite a few blacks who are outraged. They even say the vote was rigged. Even the few who like Obama said it was bogus, but of course, they think it’s funny because liberals don’t care how they win, as long as they win. Obama lost a huge chunk of blacks on the gay marriage issue, and then he lost even more with his response to the hurricane, yet, according to the results, they all still voted for him. Those I know say it’s a lie. They say large percentages of the blacks they know in their churches and families were voting against him, but the results show a different result.
You know it’s true. You’ll simply ignore the obvious voter fraud right in front of your face, such as in St. Lucie County, FLoriday. You’re just a clown and you’re going to stick with your story no matter how stupid it makes you look.
Gregor on November 14, 2012 at 6:30 PM
Ham sandwich wasn’t on the ballot.
RINOs are people too on November 14, 2012 at 6:41 PM
^^ Concern troll?
WeekendAtBernankes on November 14, 2012 at 7:05 PM