Maybe the presidential campaigns didn’t really matter

We all know that most voters decide who to vote for well before the campaigns begin. …

But about 33 percent of the public identifies as “independent.”

If you ask people what party they identify with, about a third say independent, but when pressed, we learn that few are truly making their decisions candidate by candidate or election by election. The arenas break down as such: people that consider themselves “strong Democrats” and “strong Republicans,” “weak Democrats” and “weak Republicans,” and independents who, when asked, admit that they lean (fairly heavily) toward one party. Voters in these categories are unlikely to vote for the other party. Only about 11 percent of the country really does not favor a political party. …

What is more important is that the word “independent” does not mean moderate. Many people who identify as independents are far more conservative or liberal than their partisan counterparts. The remainder of the 11% of Independents know little about politics and have a hard time understanding political issues. In the end, the exit polls show, those undecided independent voters tend to make up their minds late in the game, but more importantly about half of them vote for Democrats and about half for Republicans. Late deciders don’t tend to favor one candidate over the other, they just make their decisions closer to the election. So much for the importance of the campaign.