Will the GOP ever again hold power in California?
It’s practically impossible to envision Californians electing a Republican governor in the future, certainly not in the next gubernatorial election, in 2014. Talk to GOP pros and none can suggest a realistic, credible challenger to Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown…
Business will back Brown because he’ll be the only moderate check on a Legislature dominated by liberal Democrats. Republicans will be virtually useless…
Here’s the numerical problem: Latinos’ portion of the California electorate increased to 22% last week, up from 18% in 2008, according to an Associated Press exit poll. The percentage of voters under 30 rose to 27%, up from 20%.
Republican tacticians working on election campaigns had theorized that Latinos and young people wouldn’t turn out. “Their whole strategy was ‘Please stay home,’ ” says Allan Hoffenblum, a former GOP consultant who publishes the California Target Book, a handicapper of legislative and congressional races.
Hoffenblum adds: “This state is too large and too diverse to be governed by one party. Either the Republican Party will become a true political force again or something else will replace it.”
Blowback
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The top 2 candidates in the primaries go on to the general, so we’ll just end up with 2 democrats.
El_Terrible on November 12, 2012 at 7:18 PM
Lol, poor California. Keep spending, see what happens.
wte9 on November 12, 2012 at 7:19 PM
B3
davidk on November 12, 2012 at 7:20 PM
Maybe – when everyone leaves to escape the disaster.
The Rogue Tomato on November 12, 2012 at 7:20 PM
Nothing to replace it with in California. There are no conservatives there worth counting.
astonerii on November 12, 2012 at 7:20 PM
http://www.conservativenewsandviews.com/2012/11/12/teaparty/america-they-want-it-let-them-own-it/
davidk on November 12, 2012 at 7:20 PM
I wouldn’t be a damned bit surprised if the 2014 general election is Brown vs. Gavin Newsom.
Mark1971 on November 12, 2012 at 7:22 PM
No, and Republicans there should move to another blue state to turn it red.
It will have the bonus effect of reducing the EVs California gets.
James on November 12, 2012 at 7:24 PM
This.
I’m amazed that Dems keep getting elected despite the outrageously bad economy, but it really is only a matter of time before the state goes bankrupt and all the businesses and rich people leave in order to avoid the onerous taxes.
That said, if California continues to go down the tubes and the people keep re-electing the same fools who keep making it worse…
…then is it really a state we even WANT to have?
Religious_Zealot on November 12, 2012 at 7:24 PM
I’ve worked on several campaigns in California. We have no chance left in California. When Republicans lost the Central Valley, they lost their political future in the state.
cjv209 on November 12, 2012 at 7:24 PM
We just need to pass amnesty, then Republicans will be unstoppable there.
xblade on November 12, 2012 at 7:25 PM
Leave California. Focus on blue States where you actually have a chance, like NY state (don’t scoff, the GOP averages 40 percent in presidential elections).
blatantblue on November 12, 2012 at 7:26 PM
Latinos don’t understand they’re the ones paying all the tax increases. Everything goes downhill … including taxes.
darwin on November 12, 2012 at 7:26 PM
Just as soon as other peoples money runs out. Anyone really think this retroactive tax hike won’t be wasted on more spending rather than debt.
BullShooterAsInElk on November 12, 2012 at 7:26 PM
California is headed for deep doo-doo. Republicans shouldn’t even want it. Let the Democrats own the coming meltdown.
rbj on November 12, 2012 at 7:28 PM
If power at any price is all you care about, then I am sure they could toss most conservative policies overboard, and manage to occasionally take office when the Democrats upset the electorate.
Will conservative principles even be accepted by the dependent population of California? No.
sharrukin on November 12, 2012 at 7:29 PM
I imagine that as people leave it will upset the balance of the San Andreas fault and California will become an island, slowly moving its way to China.
/sarc
ProfShadow on November 12, 2012 at 7:29 PM
Short answer … NO.
djl130 on November 12, 2012 at 7:30 PM
Say, you may be on to something there Jim. I have had a number of conservative friends seriously ponder leaving the state. Perhaps if we ganged up on a purple state…
JusDreamin on November 12, 2012 at 7:30 PM
The problem is that there are no educators to inform the people why things are failing on the Conservative side. Unless there are wise people who are able to actually look at actions, activities and outcomes and come up with answers that inform and educate properly, then there can be no learning from the bad events.
As an example, you act as though you are well informed, know lots of things, and yet you imagine you are owed money for the taxes you paid to Uncle Sam over the years that he then turned around hand handed off to some old foggy early retiree. You think that with a system as such the economy can prosper. As educated as you seem to be, you have learned nothing from life’s lessons, or the power of histories lessons.
How on earth can you imagine people who are informed by late night comedians and Rosie Odonnel to learn something of value just because they are going under hard times underwritten by the federal government?
astonerii on November 12, 2012 at 7:32 PM
Sure.
When pigs fly or when fiscal and moral sanity returns.
Same odds. Take your pick.
HotAirian on November 12, 2012 at 7:38 PM
Conservatives can leave California. However, we just brought the California model nationwide, and it’s not so easy to move away.
Sekhmet on November 12, 2012 at 7:42 PM
I think the people of California will ask the GOP for help when they fall off the Pacific rim. Which is not that far away.
ojfltx on November 12, 2012 at 7:42 PM
This has nothing whatsoever to do with voters and is 100% to do with redistricting. The state was basically redistricted to favor Democrats so this is what happens. Same with Illinois.
crosspatch on November 12, 2012 at 7:44 PM
Arizona and Texas should organize one way bus trips to California for non-legal residents. Advertise how awesome it would be to live there. Has to be cheaper than subsidizing them.
Mitsouko on November 12, 2012 at 7:52 PM
But they would just use it as a one way part of their travel plans. Go to California, then when they want to visit relatives back home, just get a one way ticket to home, then reenter Texas.
astonerii on November 12, 2012 at 7:54 PM
The question is, are there enough conservatives left in California to turn even Iowa semi-reliably conservative?
Steve Eggleston on November 12, 2012 at 7:59 PM
Pigs will fly first.
Steve Eggleston on November 12, 2012 at 8:00 PM
All conservatives need to GTFO and reinforce Red states with their numbers. Let CA sink.
Charlemagne on November 12, 2012 at 8:00 PM
No.
This is simply not true.The GOP will not become a political force and there is nothing that the ruling part will not demonize to the ends of the earth if it tries to replace the GOP. Just look at New England. New England is now a one party system. Nothing is coming to replace the GOP. We don’t have conservative politicians here, we have Tories.
Instead, anyone likely to vote for the GOP will flee the state if they can. Unfortunately the liberals are also fleeing the deep blue states. Deep blue states now are basically running like the inner city. It’s just a matter of who gets to hand out the taxes they have collected and to whom.
Rocks on November 12, 2012 at 8:04 PM
The GOP missed a huge opportunity under the first Schwarzenegger admin to just go and talk to latino biz owners. They wouldn’t have had to promise anything, no grand schemes on immigration reform or special treatment. But simply pitch them on becoming GOP donors and candidates. Bring those with a stake in the communities into the GOP.
There is still a chance to do this but it seems the CA GOP has thrown in the towel.
chimney sweep on November 12, 2012 at 8:16 PM
Mexico has been voting socialist for a hundred years. They cross the border and they keep voting socialist.
What magic words do you have that will change that?
sharrukin on November 12, 2012 at 8:19 PM
Last time I checked Conservatives were not the ones that believed that beliefs and actions were inherent to your demographic group.
Instead of hoping young people and Hispanics don’t show up, why don’t we give them a reason to show up and vote for us?
I’m not talking about selling out and pandering, but I am talking about spending the next 2,4, 15 years making the case to people because conservative principles really do work.
JadeNYU on November 12, 2012 at 8:22 PM
Here’s what 100,000 other Americans have to say about it.
Click
trigon on November 12, 2012 at 8:23 PM
First, they only became a country in 1824. So hundreds? So there’s that.
Again, nothing magic about a pitch for joining the party. It has a lot in common with sales.
If you are afraid to ask for someone’s business, why would you get mad that the potential customer doesn’t show up and buy?
We don’t need to become a party of identity politics but we should be a bunch of prissy a-holes who are afraid to talk to people.
chimney sweep on November 12, 2012 at 8:36 PM
that or go to a purple state and make it red …
conservative tarheel on November 12, 2012 at 8:36 PM
Yep.
BallisticBob on November 12, 2012 at 8:44 PM
Mexico has been voting socialist for a hundred years.
A hundred years is singular. Since 1910.
We have talked to them and they keep voting for socialism. The only exception are the Cubans who fled Cuba and have a special insight into the nasty side of socialism.
We have tried amnesty, it failed. We tried outreach and it failed.
They want free stuff and unless you give it to them they aren’t interested.
sharrukin on November 12, 2012 at 8:47 PM
Sure, the GOP will hold power again in Calfornia. But it won’t happen by conservatives there turning against their principles and becoming Democrat-lite. That just enables the current Democrats to jump farther left knowing the electorate will take the real thing over the cheap imitation every time.
The GOP will hold power in California again by bringing their money and principle to a well-governed state for a while and letting California go mach speed in the determinedly downward spiral they are currently in. Given time, it will fall and conservatives will jump in to pick up the pieces and sort it out. It will likely be sometime after 2030 before it all cycles around (the downward spiral will come much sooner, but it takes a lot of kicking before dummies to get a clue), but it will come around again.
Gingotts on November 12, 2012 at 8:50 PM