The amnesty delusion
Republicans who believe that amnesty would buy them an electoral advantage with Hispanics are deluding themselves. That Hispanics are a natural Republican constituency because of their Catholic and family-oriented traditions is wishful thinking. Hispanics are not uniformly in favor of amnesty for illegals — polls have shown that a segment of the Hispanic population ranging from a large minority to a small majority oppose the policy. Polls also show that a substantial majority of Hispanics support Obamacare, and that Hispanics voted accordingly on Tuesday. Those who see in Hispanics a potential bloc of socially conservative voters should consider that polls consistently find blacks to be slightly more anti-abortion than whites, but they are not exactly lining up behind Rick Santorum. There is very little reason to believe that Hispanic Catholics are any more likely to vote like social conservatives than non-Hispanic Catholics. For that matter, the majority of Hispanic evangelicals voted for Obama in 2008.
The amnesty signed into law by the charismatic and popular President Reagan did not bring Hispanic voters into the Republican party; Republican congressional leaders who believe that sending one to President Obama would redound to their benefit are engaged in a defective political calculus. Nor are Hispanics the only group of voters to consider. Blue-collar whites do not appear to have turned out for Republicans in the usual numbers last week. Support for amnesty will not bring them back. If the policy advanced the national interest, that consideration might not matter. It does when supposed political advantage is the argument for the policy.
Blowback
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Remember that and make it quite clear to the RNC this means the end of grassroots support if you amnesty.
rob verdi on November 12, 2012 at 12:38 PM
grahamnesty
cmsinaz on November 12, 2012 at 12:41 PM
Yep, they’re right. Kinda surprised though…I expected NR to jump in with the Hannity crowd and “evolve” on it, themselves.
changer1701 on November 12, 2012 at 12:43 PM
With Facebook, young voters and single women are now reliable voters. Have been since 2008.
We ceded these people to Obama.
Why?
faraway on November 12, 2012 at 12:47 PM
Maybe the question should be : how could we make legal immigration simpler?
Vera71 on November 12, 2012 at 12:47 PM
I don’t think anyone believes that amnesty alone would result in a huge flight of Hispanic voters to Republicans. But it would, it seems to me, lead to at least a segment of that group voting Republican.
And I think – perhaps, perhaps – it might lead to Hispanic Americans being more willing to listen to Republican ideas on limited government, et cetera. Ethnic coalitions of the type that the Democrats have are notoriously unstable – the internal contradictions emerge over time. Conservatives need to heighthen those contradictions (to use a line from Lenin).
Not enough, perhaps, to win presidential elections. But demography is indeed destiny and the GOP needs to appeal to the growing non-white population.
SteveMG on November 12, 2012 at 12:48 PM
This is key to understanding what happened this year. Blue Collar whites are far more willing to vote Republican than anyone who identifies themselves as Hispanics first every will be. They will not though if we keep giving them reasons to believe their vote won’t make a difference.
Hispanics, given time, will become blue collar whites. Giving amnesty, and voting rights, to millions of Illegal immigrant Mexicans every 25 years will blunt, or even stop, that from ever happening.
Rocks on November 12, 2012 at 12:48 PM
Because, unlike Hannity, the NR editors remember their history.
We actually anmnesty in 1986. The R share of the Hispanic Presidential vote dropped from 34% in 1984 to 30% in 1988 to 21% in 1996.
Even when we ran a candidate that was expressly pro-amnesty (McAmnesty), his share of the Hispanic Presidential vote dropped from Bush’s 44% in 2004 to 31%.
Steve Eggleston on November 12, 2012 at 12:53 PM
Er, “We actually passed amnesty in 1986.” I blame Mondayitis.
Steve Eggleston on November 12, 2012 at 12:54 PM
Because the conservative stance is you work to be your own Santa Claus.
That loses when the opposition is willing to give things away and be Santa Claus, with no work required on the part of the recipient of this largesse.
RDH on November 12, 2012 at 1:00 PM
No caving on principles. We must not adopt policies that undermine the rule of law.
We should also change our immigration law to re-prioritze skilled immigrants from Europe and the Far East, over unskilled immigrants from latin america and the middle east.
Iblis on November 12, 2012 at 1:00 PM
For those that think that amnesty will someday, somehow, increase the number of Hispanics who vote republican I would remind you of one thing. The Republican party is the party of the “Rule of law” if you grant amnesty, that is discard the rules, you teach those wishing to get around the Rule of Law that discarding the rule of law is a good thing. You are producing more of those that think we should be ruled by empathy/compassion instead. In other words, you are producing more Democrats.
Rocks on November 12, 2012 at 1:03 PM
Yup. I am the first republican in my Hispanic family and they were all born here. My dad voted R for the first time in his life this election because he could finally see the havoc the leftists in this country have wrought on younger generations. It took me having two babies to wake up him to the fact that these leftists degenerates are stealing our future. He’ll be dead when it comes time for our creditors to collect. Me and my children won’t be.
jawkneemusic on November 12, 2012 at 1:05 PM
Amnesty is part of the Obama march away from the rule of law and towards the power of your ethnic or other identity-politics group. This won’t end well for our country. We’re a great country because of our Constitution, and we’re moving farther away from it every day.
Who cares if most illegal immigrants are Hispanic. They could be Swedish bikini team centerfold bunnies for all I care. The Constitution and the rule of law is our social contract, not what minority group you belong to. We shouldn’t reward breaking the law.
Paul-Cincy on November 12, 2012 at 1:07 PM
I guess I said the same thing you already did.
Paul-Cincy on November 12, 2012 at 1:08 PM
Republicans who get on the amnesty bandwagon will in effect be actively participating in the party’s demise.
I don’t know why it is so hard for the right to:
1. Demand that the borders be closed first and now–before we talk about amnesty or some grand bargain;
2. Get rid of birthright citizenship. It has been incorrectly interpreted through the courts and is being abused terribly; and
3. Make the case to legalized Hispanics and other immigrants that identify so much with democrats that there is a reason why they came to this country from their own socialized (predominantly) countries and explain to them that it is the policies of socialism that made their home country one that they had no more opportunity in. Then, connect the dots for them that by voting for democrats here they will turn this country of opportunity into the one they left. Someone like Marco Rubio could make this case wonderfully.
KickandSwimMom on November 12, 2012 at 1:09 PM
So when exactly do we think we will physically secure the border? Or is the answer basically never. Saying we need to enforce the border is now just one big long “DUH” to me. Does anyone believe that will ever really happen?
If anything can we at least appeal to the Hispanic population that is here legally? I think people just want a solution to this already. Either do something or shut up about it.
Going after illegals without any outreach is way too easily spun as “GOP hates brown people”.
Dash on November 12, 2012 at 1:09 PM
No, it wouldn’t. Stop right there. If it would, the Reagan amnesty would have netted us a big chunk of the Hispanic vote, and it didn’t. This contention is not supported by history.
Right now, the “ethnic coalition” of the Democrats is centered around looting the taxpayers. That is the big uniting principle. Until that money is no longer there, the coalition will remain stable, because all the looters know they need to cooperate in order to get the loot. It’s not going to fracture until the taxpayer purse is empty. We’re almost there, but not quite yet.
Doomberg on November 12, 2012 at 1:13 PM
Absolutely. This isn’t about race or racism. A lot of subcontinent Indians have darker skin than most blacks here. It’s about what can you contribute to our country, working within the rule of law. I don’t care what minority group you belong to. That doesn’t matter!
On HotGas, you can’t tell WHAT minority group someone belongs to. That has its advantages!
Paul-Cincy on November 12, 2012 at 1:13 PM
Speaking of amnesty sellouts rewarding illegal behavior, Derp Hannity is now on the RINO list. Congratulations, Derp.
But good on NR for once being on the right side of the debate. I just might have to un-cancel my own g–damn subscription.
Punchenko on November 12, 2012 at 1:15 PM
Let’s hear what your plan is to get these voters. One condition: We can’t vote them handouts.
I think at this point we need to examine the financial motives of those pushing amnesty on the Republican side of the aisle.
Doomberg on November 12, 2012 at 1:15 PM
davidk on November 12, 2012 at 1:24 PM
Exactly — it’s the Daley Machine at the national level.
Punchenko on November 12, 2012 at 1:28 PM
http://assets.amuniversal.com/a0f182000abf0130fafe001dd8b71c47
davidk on November 12, 2012 at 1:28 PM
Hard to believe anyone would really think that GOP support for amnesty would do anything other than increase the Democratic voter base. The Right will need decades before they can learn how to pander like the Left does – we’re beginners in the game while the Dems are masters of it.
The Democrats will spin GOP support for amnesty so that it reflects positively on their party – that they “finally” forced the GOP to stop being so bigoted. All those voters and their additions to the government dole will be courtesy ofthe Democratic Party.
katiejane on November 12, 2012 at 1:40 PM
I say we only allow amnesty for immigrants that take a course in economics and the constitution. The democrats would veto this as it would ensure that they would vote with the republicans.
Bensonofben on November 12, 2012 at 2:32 PM
I live in a rural area of California.
My Hispanic friends love their guns and freedom just as much as I do.
Guess what? They vote Republican!
MHatch on November 12, 2012 at 3:19 PM
True. So the question is, if those are the issues where they agree with us, then why not highlight those when talking to them?
Stoic Patriot on November 12, 2012 at 3:56 PM
Based on what, wishful thinking and revisionist history?
Yes we do. But we don’t have to give away the country via amnesty to do it.
xblade on November 12, 2012 at 4:02 PM