“[I]f Texas becomes a swing state, it’s all over”
“It’s stunning that Republicans won the white vote by 20 points and still lost,” said Alan I. Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University who writes about polarization. Unless Republicans reverse the trend, he said, the rising strength of Latinos could doom the party’s ability to map a winning electoral strategy. Colorado and Nevada could soon join California and New Mexico as noncompetitive states for Republicans in presidential elections, with Florida not far behind.
“And eventually Texas,” Dr. Abramowitz added. “Not 4 years or 8 years from now, but in 12 or 16 years Texas is going to become a swing state. And if Texas becomes a swing state, it’s all over.”…
But the Republicans will also have to overcome the tone set by Republican-led states that have enacted tough new measures aimed at catching illegal immigrants. Latinos will never vote Republican, said Mr. Treviño, the former Bush speechwriter, “if they think your political party just doesn’t want you as a neighbor.”
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I guess we’ve lost forever the illegal vote.
What we need to do is push back, not internalize the illegal=all immigrants fiction the Dems, MSM, and our Party Grandees want everyone to believe.
JeffWeimer on November 12, 2012 at 10:58 AM
If all these Latinos are illegal, why are they voting?
jawkneemusic on November 12, 2012 at 10:59 AM
Myopic viewpoint.
It is already nearly all over for most of the country. If Dems win one or two more cycles and follow the same bankrupting policies there will not be a union to save by either party.
Difficultas_Est_Imperium on November 12, 2012 at 11:00 AM
And opening the borders and granting amnesty is going to stop Texas from becoming a swing state? It’ll accelerate it. THEN it will be all over.
JeffWeimer on November 12, 2012 at 11:01 AM
I was at a party here in Texas this past weekend with many dour faces and there was unanimous consent that when Romney ridiculously went far right from Perry in the (R) debates and became Sheriff Joe, it was just OVER. Let those who want to round up and deport the illegal Mexicans and prohibit abortion for rape victims to form their own party. Please do.
Marcus on November 12, 2012 at 11:01 AM
It’s not the Latinos I’m worried about. Not just because I’m a Latino. It’s the people coming here from blue states because we have jobs and voting democrat not understanding that, THAT is the reason they left their crappy blue state. Texas is doing well because we are a red state.
nazarioj001 on November 12, 2012 at 11:02 AM
But they do want you as a neighbor! Texas after all neighbors Mexico.
Browncoatone on November 12, 2012 at 11:02 AM
Texas is MILES from becoming a swing state, folks. The miserable economy has dried up illegal immigration to a trickle. Democrats can’t even get close to winning statewide yet; look at the numbers.
michaelo on November 12, 2012 at 11:03 AM
I don’t think any of the analyses we’ve been seeing lately takes into account how badly Democrats are botching everything they touch.
forest on November 12, 2012 at 11:03 AM
Nice straw men you have there. Did Obama lend you the straw?
jawkneemusic on November 12, 2012 at 11:05 AM
In 12-16 years, there won’t be any money left to buy off the support of blacks and Latinos or anyone else. At that point either the entire economy collapses and/or the Democrats have a much harder time getting people to vote for them based on empty promises of government assistance with no source of revenue to fund it.
Doughboy on November 12, 2012 at 11:05 AM
The only blue counties were Dallas, Travis, Harris, and the Valley. Even Dallas and Harris were barely blue.
Sekhmet on November 12, 2012 at 11:06 AM
Harris county, the county in which Houston is located, is very liberal. It went bleu this year by less than 600 votes – that’s a very narrow win.
MoreLiberty on November 12, 2012 at 11:06 AM
That’s what has happened to Colorado.
jawkneemusic on November 12, 2012 at 11:06 AM
When the GOP can’t beat Commie Obammy, it’s all ready ALL OVER.
Axion on November 12, 2012 at 11:06 AM
More MSM propaganda. Sheesh.
Punchenko on November 12, 2012 at 11:07 AM
It won’t matter who we run or what our agenda is if Democrats can fraudulently win elections.
They only need to dump a few thousand votes into a few swing states and they win. And the GOP will continue to do absolutely nothing but sit on their hands waving chicken crap white flags of surrender as long as we have the same gutless old tired RINO’s in charge!
JellyToast on November 12, 2012 at 11:09 AM
Feels like it all over now to me.
Cindy Munford on November 12, 2012 at 11:10 AM
To be honest, this was probably the last chance we had to turn things around before the economy crashes. We might thoeretically elect a Republican president before the economy crashes if Obama can keep things going until 2016, but realistically that president’s primary duty is going to be to manage a national bankruptcy process as opposed to turning the ship of state around.
What? Romney ran as the “moderate” and “electable” candidate. The idea that he ran as some conservative firebrand is just laughable on its face.
I mean, if you WANT an amnesty to add millions of fresh new Democrat voters, be my guest, as I don’t really care what happens to the Republican party anymore, but presumably you so-called “moderates” would like to actually win an election now and again somewhere.
Doomberg on November 12, 2012 at 11:11 AM
I see huge culture differences between Dominicans, Haitians, Cubans and Mexicans. Apparently, Democrats and their media do not.
rhombus on November 12, 2012 at 11:11 AM
When the Democrats can’t borrow any more money for food stamps, Obamaphones, and pookie choom – what exactly will be their selling point.
“Yeah, we want to give you lots of free sh*t. Can’t afford it though. But come at least we’re not racists, rapists, and criminals (well we are but we’re cool).”???
CorporatePiggy on November 12, 2012 at 11:12 AM
We lost the election 50 years ago when the Marxists took over the schools and poisoned the minds of 3 generations of our children. They’ve changed the culture and have demonized everything that made America the most magnificent society in history.
And when that becomes the culture’s default setting, how do you compete against that? When people grow up thinking that conservative values are not just wrong, but illegitimate and evil, how do we win against that?
It is going to get VERY ugly in the not too distant future.
Rixon on November 12, 2012 at 11:12 AM
NYT spiking the ball…
d1carter on November 12, 2012 at 11:13 AM
Spent the weekend before the election in Houston and could not understand how it was a red state. Two of my 3 dinners were served by people that spoke little english. The streets are lined with signs that have spanish as their primary language. I kept lamenting that the state could not stay red forever.
Unless it secedes and enforces federal laws for itself.
Great state by the way!
Bensonofben on November 12, 2012 at 11:13 AM
12-16 is way too optimistic. We’re looking at implosion in the next few years max. The contagion will continue creeping upward through Europe until it hits France and Germany, and then it will be our turn. Spain was supposed to be the firewall and it’s not working.
Here it will probably really begin with the bankruptcies of California and Illinois and other faltering blue states. The Federal Government will be forced to assume the debts of bankrupt blue states until it too collapses.
Doomberg on November 12, 2012 at 11:14 AM
Reagan pioneered the last amnesty flood and the dems got the credit. Why do it again? You are all fooling yourselves if you think the republican house will get any election day love for allowing Obama to sign an amnesty bill. Its all about O and the dems.
Bensonofben on November 12, 2012 at 11:15 AM
Yeah, Romney won by 17 points here. Ted Cruz won easily. Rick Perry got a 3rd term in a cakewalk(and it’s not like Bill White was poorly regarded). And last time I checked, we already have a very large Hispanic population. We’re a looooooong way from being a swing state.
Doughboy on November 12, 2012 at 11:19 AM
In 12 to 16 years it’s going to be over anyway. Hell, the projected debt for 2016 is $21 trillion. If these statist politicians don’t stop spending – on both defense and entitlements – it’s only going to increase. Let’s say that the deficits are actually halfed by 2016, the the next 12 years means another national debt will be around $25 trillion by 2024. The interest payments alone are going to bankrupt us.
MoreLiberty on November 12, 2012 at 11:20 AM
Well said. This is why it’s over. Others in the party will eventually see it but probably only after they have sawed off all three legs of the conservative stool in a desperate and pathetic attempt to cling to power solely for power’s sake.
Kataklysmic on November 12, 2012 at 11:20 AM
I live in Texas, the idea that R’s allowing illegals to come here will pull hispanics to their side is fantasy. Illegals don’t assimilate and won’t learn english, the hispanics born here know this and vote D so the illegals will be coddled, letting more illegals in won’t change that one bit.
clearbluesky on November 12, 2012 at 11:20 AM
Should add the hispanics that vote D do that, obviously not all hispanics vote D.
clearbluesky on November 12, 2012 at 11:22 AM
Pass amnesty and Texas will soon become a blue state like CA, giving all its electoral votes to the Democrat in presidential elections.
Massive illegal alien amnesty is the equivalent of national suicide,
bluegill on November 12, 2012 at 11:24 AM
If red states are gonna survive, they will have to get mean. You need to purge your libs. Make them move to already blue states or out of the country. You need to set racial population quotas, like everywhere else in the world that has some regard for their continued survival.
Buddahpundit on November 12, 2012 at 11:25 AM
Pathetic
cmsinaz on November 12, 2012 at 11:25 AM
Marcus on November 12, 2012 at 11:01 AM
THIS Texas girl is the grand-daughter of a LEGAL immigrant. HE followed the rules to get here. Border jumpers ARE lawbreakers and deserve to be deported. The unborn don’t doesn’t become less worthy of life just because those life came into being through violence. a woman who is raped is an innocent victim-so is that baby that came into existence because of it. It is you sir, who are an extremist.
annoyinglittletwerp on November 12, 2012 at 11:26 AM
Pretty simple really …
Conservatives – you need to sack up and SELL your philosophy to Hispanics. You need to stop watering it down with wishy washy POTUS candidates who flip and flop and flop and flip on every issue.
You need to stop kissing the balls of RINO’s like Snott Brown – and be thankful when guys like him get eliminated politically. That guy only confuses people about what a Republican is.
Conservatism is the same in the South as it is in the North – you need to stop compromising your principles for liberal states. Sell conservatism – BELIEVE in your philosophy. BELIEVE it is correct – if it is correct – it will win in the end.
You’re getting these 22 million illegals whether you like it or not. At some point – they’re going on the voting rolls there. You can build a Demographic Wall as complete as the “The Great Wall of China” – it will not work. They’ll get through it.
Deal with the issue the way a military man does. You weren’t dealt this hand but … BY GOD … you’ll play it.
HondaV65 on November 12, 2012 at 11:26 AM
■From bondage to spiritual faith;
■From spiritual faith to great courage;
■From courage to liberty;
■From liberty to abundance;
■From abundance to complacency;
■From complacency to apathy;
■From apathy to dependence;
■From dependence back into bondage.
How much longer until we reach the final stage?
VegasRick on November 12, 2012 at 11:26 AM
Moterez-voterez! It’s so wonderful!
slickwillie2001 on November 12, 2012 at 11:27 AM
That’s because you were in Houston. I’ve lived here since 1984(except for 1995-99 when I went to college in San Antonio). The Greater Houston area is the actual city of Houston with a ton of suburbs and outer cities and towns surrounding it(i.e. Katy, Pearland, Baytown, Clear Lake, the Woodlands, Sugar Land, Richmond, etc.). Those surrounding areas are very conservative which is why this is such a deep red state.
And this is also an extremely diverse area. We’re not a homogenous, mostly white enclave. Yet we keep voting in Republicans every election cycle. I’m telling you, it’s a cultural thing down here. The national Republicans need to figure out how to tap into that. Which ain’t easy mind you given this country just reelected a man who ran on a platform of “you didn’t build that”, class warfare, and free birth control. But they have to try.
Doughboy on November 12, 2012 at 11:30 AM
That’s because you were in Houston. I’ve lived here since 1984(except for 1995-99 when I went to college in San Antonio). The Greater Houston area is the actual city of Houston with a ton of suburbs and outer cities and towns surrounding it(i.e. Katy, Pearland, Baytown, Clear Lake, the Woodlands, Sugar Land, Richmond, etc.). Those surrounding areas are very conservative which is why this is such a deep red state.
And this is also an extremely diverse area. We’re not a homogenous, mostly white enclave. Yet we keep voting in Republicans every election cycle. I’m telling you, it’s a cultural thing down here. The national Republicans need to figure out how to tap into that. Which ain’t easy mind you given this country just reelected a man who ran on a platform of “you didn’t build that”, class warfare, and free birth control. But they have to try.
Doughboy on November 12, 2012 at 11:31 AM
The Founders were dealt a hand of being subjects of the King of England. They didn’t sit around accepting the hand they were dealt.
Buddahpundit on November 12, 2012 at 11:32 AM
I think Jonah Goldberg wrote a piece this year about this. As the Dem party actively tribalizes and agitates the country according to race, culture, sex, age, union/nonunion, public/private sector workers, etc. they will not be able to mollify all of their factions, many of which actively compete against each other. They might turn on each other when the well runs dry. That doesn’t mean they will start voting for economic liberty, though. Just that they’ll start hating each other, maybe.
visions on November 12, 2012 at 11:35 AM
12 to 16 months. I think it’s that bad. They are rushing this before the fiscal cliff.
Oil Can on November 12, 2012 at 11:37 AM
Oh, I agree. I was just playing along with the author’s timeline. I fully expect the economy to collapse by 2015 once Obamacare has been in effect for a little while. Shoot, it looks like we may be ahead of pace given how many employers are already cutting back hours and jobs in anticipation of the law going into effect.
Doughboy on November 12, 2012 at 11:42 AM
They don’t take into account the number of conservatives that will be flocking there in the next four years.
gophergirl on November 12, 2012 at 11:43 AM
This.
I was already into my elementary education at the tail end of that era when schools were good (mid- to late 60s). I went to a private school 1st through 4th grade and then switched to public school for 5th grade on. It actually made me very sad – even as a kid – to see how much slower and further behind the public school kids were, and that I was now among their ranks.
It’s even worse now. Much, much worse.
UltimateBob on November 12, 2012 at 11:43 AM
Stop debating how we can control the federal leviathan. Assert states rights and declare a whole host of legislation unconsitutional. Force a constitutional discussion. Force the left into defending central control over all aspects of our lives. Force the left into displaying who they are, soft tyrants.
When someone brings up 1861, tell them that the states were trying to maintain slavery(a concept anti-thetical to our declaration, where as now the federal government is trying to maintain fiscal slavery to the federal government by not allowing the states to execute their constitutional powers.
Meat Fighter on November 12, 2012 at 11:44 AM
Texas is not going blue anytime soon.
terryannonline on November 12, 2012 at 11:47 AM
After spending some time in the Corpus area with a large mexican heritage population I can tell you one thing that will unite Texans of all stripes and that is Texas pride. If the governor would stand up to the feds with action if required then Texans of all stripes would be behind them because it is a culture thing.
Amnesty and pandering = national suicide
Meat Fighter on November 12, 2012 at 11:51 AM
DBoy- Obama was banking on being able to borrow money (deficit spending) to bridge the time gap until they put all insurance companies out of business – forcing a public option. I think it runs multi-trillion dollar deficits in years 1 and 2 forcing a quicker national crisis- as we cant borrow on the deficit longer with long term unfunded liabilities projected to be over 30 trillion.
The european countries in peril are being forced to address their national health care as priority one in the austerity measures. I think Obamacare will go quick once faced with its enormous expenses and other social programs also strained.
Bensonofben on November 12, 2012 at 11:53 AM
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