The lesson of 2004: Don’t immediately start looking for lessons
This last bit of wisdom was distilled in an Internet meme known as “Jesusland.” The day after the election someone on a video-game message board posted a Photoshopped map of North America. Canada, America’s West Coast, and the northeast corridor were colored pink and labeled the “United States of Canada.” The remaining territory, colored green, was labeled “Jesus-land.” The map went on to wide acclaim and was featured on nearly every liberal blog and website in the land. There was a Jesusland book. The hipster songwriter Ben Folds wrote a song about it.
Four years later Jesusland elected the most liberal Democratic president since Lyndon Johnson while simultaneously handing his party control of both houses of Congress.
The point of all this isn’t to suggest that Republicans are on the cusp of a resurgence or to argue that all politics is cyclical. Both, or neither, of those things might be true. Rather, it’s a reminder that the future is uncertain. In 2004 Democrats believed that the culture of America had irrevocably changed. Then came the housing bubble, the financial collapse, and Barack Obama. Events happen, individuals matter, and the first lessons learned are rarely helpful. Or right.
Blowback
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Sigh, still can’t believe it. Four more years of Obama and Biden. Double sigh.
Richard Romano on November 10, 2012 at 1:31 PM
And in the intervening 8 years, colleges and the MSM became more left, Mexico shipped several more million illegals, and eight more batches of lefties became of voting age. That adds up.
Those are trends not fads. If Bush was challenging Obama today, he would have lost. So yes, we can draw lessons. The Overton window moves inexorably left with time. And eight years is a lot of time in a world of electronic social media.
keep the change on November 10, 2012 at 1:42 PM
Thank you. Remember 2004, folks. The Dems were shattered after Bush was reelected and the exit polls said “moral values” were the biggest reason why. And for about 2 or 3 days they paid lip service to moderating their positions on social issues. Yet 2 years later they retook both houses of Congress. 2 years after that they padded their margins and retook the White House with the most pro-abortion candidate in history(so much for moderation). And 4 years after that despite a horrible economic record, they held onto the White House and the Senate. And that’s after they added gay marriage and abortion on demand to their platform and temporarily removed God(again, so much for moderation).
Point being, don’t abandon your principles and sell out your base because you lost a close election when your brand is still in the toilet in the wake of the Bush Presidency. Be patient, let Obamanomics play out, and take another shot in 2 years.
Doughboy on November 10, 2012 at 1:43 PM
Bang-on. 2nd terms are typically harder than the first and contain within them the evidence to justify a critique of the incumbent party and an argument for future change.
This country — which already doesn’t like Obamacare — is going to like the implementation of Obamacare even less.
Obama’s growing military adventurism will certainly produce a backlash.
The devastation visited upon America’s small businesses after Obama’s tax increases go through will lead the public to want someone whose business-friendly in 2016.
Obama will produce the arguments for his successor’s defeat. It’s, of course, a different question whether the next GOP presidential nominee can make them in a compelling way and to the right parts of the public.
Robert_Paulson on November 10, 2012 at 1:48 PM
Oh, there’s no hurry; we’ll have plenty of time to make our minds up. Rest assured that over the next four years we’ll see ANOTHER ten thousand stories telling us the only way Republicans can possibly win is by nominating an even more liberal candidate.
logis on November 10, 2012 at 2:04 PM
We resisted Mitt tooth and nail because we knew he was going to lose and screw us over. And he royally did… with coattails that decimated our senate candidates in a year that we were supposed to make major gains! The problem was he acted like it was all about benign non-controversial jobs. Jobs jobs jobs, and nothing else. Where was the outrage? About Obamacare? Or about the threat of illegal immigration that if advertised would have helped to get our white vote up! It was Mitt that infamously said when asked about Chick Fil A, “That’s not part of my campaign,” and with that white working class voters turned away. A mush candidate.
anotherJoe on November 10, 2012 at 2:10 PM
All this is nice to say, but I don’t see how anyone can deny that the electoral landscape hasn’t changed for the worse. Romney, a moderate candidate, outperformed all the conservative candidates this year, many of whom lost. For chrissakes, Allan Grayson got elected back into office. We’re scratching and clawing for reliably red states – and losing them. We trick ourselves into thinking we can compete in places like WI and PA. Those states were called barely after the polls closed.
The Count on November 10, 2012 at 2:18 PM
You are delusional. Nearly all the conservative candidates in contested races lost. Romney probably saved us the House.
The Count on November 10, 2012 at 2:22 PM
The other candidates were laughingstocks, who was your choice? Gingrich? Cain? Huckabee?
Right now the country is to the left of Mitt Romney, and we can go on and on about ORCA and consultants, but if people really were tired of the Dems they wouldn’t have needed someone to remind them to vote, especially in places like Iowa and Wisconsin.
They believe in the free lunch.
WisCon on November 10, 2012 at 2:35 PM
First, I’d like to note that I was one of the people who was saying that a Romney candidacy was doomed from the start because he was a fatally flawed candidate. I said that the polls showed Romney was screwed. Kudos to Count, changer, CW, wargamer6, bluegill, and Joana, among others, for getting things so horribly, horribly wrong.
A few lessons can be learned from this debacle:
1.) A fiscally conservative, socially moderate/liberal candidate has been tried, under ideal conditions, and has lost. Romney said he would cut taxes and roll back regulation to give businesses more confidence. Likewise, he also said that Chick-fil-A voters were not part of his campaign, told the Des Moines Register that he wouldn’t be enacting legislative restrictions on abortion, and his own sister was going out telling women that he would do nothing to overturn Roe. Obama had everything going against him with the economy, and Romney stood to be the beneficiary. Romney lost, and lost badly. So much for fiscal conservatism and social liberalism being the thing which the GOP needed to attract a deluge of support. Any more “electable” candidates like Romney, and the GOP will be undergoing rigor mortis faster than you can say etch-a-sketch.
2.) Economic conservatism has failed. From the no new taxes under any circumstances, to smearing the 47%, the arrogant elitism that permeated the GOP talking heads and Romney himself was disgusting. Bain was a hindrance, not a help, to Romney’s campaign and further played into turning away swing state voters.
3.) Even When “It’s the Economy, Stupid”, It’s Not the Economy, Stupid. There were plenty of issues to talk about, but Romney apparently decided to “stay on message,” even when messages about other issues like Benghazi were clearly available to him. Obama, meanwhile, reminded his liberal base about their social liberalism and that he shared it, reminded voters that he was the one who got bin Laden, and spoke about his desire to increase taxes on the wealthy. He went for the full range of issues. One-trick pony Republicanism will get the GOP nowhere.
4.) Peace through Strength. Victory through Strength. On the few occassions that Romney did make an argument that wasn’t strictly about the economy, he spoke about it in the weakest terms. With abortion for instance, he spoke about not wanting Federal funding, about handing the decision back to the states (which only shifts responsibility rather than sets a policy), and that he favored exceptions in the case of rape, incest, and life of the mother. All of these are very mild, very moderate, if you will, positions. And absolutely none of them got to the heart of the matter, articulating the moral evil that abortion is because it exterminates an innocent person for the sake of another person’s convenience. 98% of abortions are elective abortions. Obama was against BAIPA. But rather than go for the jugular, Romney played it safe. Cowardice will go unrewarded.
5.) Tell Me What You Stand For. Even if you hated Obama (as I did), you need to know what the other guy is for. Both Kerry and now Romney have run hard on “the other guy sucks.” Obama did this as well, but relied on it to a lesser-extent than Romney. Obama was also aided by something Romney did not have, listed below.
6.) Consistency, Consistency, Consistency. One of the things that hurt Romney immensely was his constant flip-flops. From abortion, to gay marriage, to healthcare, to climate change, the guy couldn’t locate a consistent set of values if they were in his front yard, blindfolded, and tied to a tree. Romney’s record was that of a liberal governor. He tried to pretend to be a conservative. It didn’t work. And why? See point 7.
7.) Secure Your Base. It’s a really bad idea to piss off your base. Why? Because if they won’t vote for you, who will? Obama lost 10 million voters due to how bad he was, but Romney couldn’t even reach McCain’s tallies. Secure your base used to be the first rule of politics. Put up a candidate who your base trusts on the issues that are important to them, and they will give your candidate the leeway they need if they’re ever in a pickle. Put up a guy like Romney, and they simply don’t show up on game day. A couple of pundits tried to cure this by reminding people about the court, but that only reminded the base that Romney’s court picks in MA sucked. Given my principles, I should be a very easy voter for the GOP to get, but I was proudly one of the GOP’s missing voters, instead casting my lot in with Virgil Goode while the rest of my family simply stayed home.
8.) Obamacare. Playing into item #7, never, ever, make your candidate the guy who served as the forefather and architect of what you spent a year and a half (rightly) fighting against. It reminds them that your guy is just like the other guy — a distinction without a difference, if you will.
For these, and other reasons, Romney lost. With that said, I leave you with the last few minutes of the Romney campaign’s hopes as they watched the returns come in.
Stoic Patriot on November 10, 2012 at 2:51 PM
I have a feeling you listen to Mark Levin too much. I love Mark too, but he doesn’t understand that the electorate is very different now. We cannot win on espousing conservatism alone. Mitt was the best candidate we could field, plain and simple.
Richard Romano on November 10, 2012 at 2:51 PM