Shake it off, conservatives!
Thinking about the present day, if conservatives are right and what Walter Russell Mead has called the “blue state model” is indeed collapsing, then the GOP might not be that far away from another moment. At the least, the fact that it did not come in 2012 does not mean it is not coming.
And conservatives should be ready for it. For starters, they should ignore the triumphalists on the left espousing a permanent shift leftward. Nonsense! Yes, conservatives must do a better job of reaching out to Hispanics, but some perspective is necessary. The incumbent president is set to take in millions of fewer votes than he won in 2008. He limped across the finish line by dint of vicious demagoguery, which lowered turnout among white voters who have voted Republican in the past. Put simply, the GOP is still very much in this ballgame.
Instead, conservative should make a serious study of the leaders who made full uses of the moments when they were handed to them. On the right, these men were Bob Taft, Ronald Reagan, and George W. Bush. On the left, they were Franklin Roosevelt, Lyndon Johnson, and Barack Obama. Conservatives should ask themselves: what qualities did these leaders have in common? That will help them find the best standard bearer to guide the GOP and the conservative movement when the next moment comes.
I don’t know when that will be, but I do know that the left is wrong: The trajectory of American history is not an inevitable leftward drift. So buck up, conservatives!
Blowback
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Let’s examine the claim, then. Of the counties Obama won:
relatively same turnout: Allegheny, Delaware, Lackawanna
1 point lower: Erie
2 points lower: Dauphin, Luzerne, Monroe
3 points lower: Montgomery, Northampton
4 points lower: Bucks, Lehigh
Moreover, Obama LOST Chester County if the current result holds.
The only place Obama got a higher percentage over 2008 was in Philadelphia County, where you may recall that GOP poll inspectors were illegally removed from several locations, which then had an odd surge in turnout (over 90% in a city that averaged a 60% turnout) and went as high as 99.5% for Obama.
And yet, the part you think is illogical is where a guy makes a bullish prediction based on claims that the state has been drifting red, given the above results, and given that in an election where Romney’s turnout was down 5% nationally, he gained about 40,000 votes, and Obama’s margin was cut in half. We won’t even talk about how in ’76, Carter took the entire western edge of the state except for Crawford County, and every county in and around Pittsburgh except Butler. Even in 1980, when Reagan took 45 states, Carter took most of those same counties.
The Schaef on November 9, 2012 at 10:52 PM
Bingo, and that’s why i say abolish the INS open borders for real. If the American people don’t want America to be a sovereign nation people who do will come visit.
let it burn.
harlekwin15 on November 9, 2012 at 10:54 PM
Really?! The next time you hear someone complain about what a travesty the federally sanctioned blackmail of a national drinking age is, remember that the good Republican President Dwight Eisenhower brought us, for the first time, consolidated federal highway funding.
The EPA and OSHA, two of conservatives’ biggest modern bugaboos, were practically brainchildren of Richard Milhaus Nixon, a president who would have been every liberal’s wet dream if not for that pesky little Alger Hiss affair. Everyone that was alive back in the 60′s knew “Only Nixon could go to China,” but we’ve all conveniently forgot in the interim that Alger Hiss was the reason why.
Yeah, sure. You and Art Laffer(!) insult my intelligence with such equivocating drivel. But while your bank accounts disappear and implode and you have no legal recourse with which to retrieve them, and while you end up carting wheelbarrows of USD to purchase your next loaf of bread from the grocery store, just pat yourself on the back knowing it’ll get better in the next election.
Argument-by-assertion if I ever saw it. You and your ilk were spewing this same line of bullshit when telling us there was practically no way Romney could lose. He was the most electable! Obama’s second term is untenable! Oh well…it won’t be that bad…(!)
Wrong wrong wrong. He is getting away with his rhetoric now, and will continue to, because he has no regard for the law, the constitution, or the relative soundness of the American dollar. Make no mistake, quantitative easing will destroy our economy first, and the rest of the culture will follow — slowly and painfully. We aren’t “borrowing” shit. We have no intention of paying it back. We are printing worthless paper and calling is “USD.”
Damn skippy, you’re guessing. And if you really believe that “economics” are on anyone’s side in a nation that is printing worthless pulp to “pay back” its debts, you need to learn a little bit about “hyperinflation.” America is not immune to it, and it will hit us harder than it has hit any nation in recorded history. Thing is, that will be just the beginning!
gryphon202 on November 9, 2012 at 10:55 PM
I know what you mean – and I am not saying we stop trying to win elections. But – to abandon principle (capitulate on amnesty, for example) for the sake of winning them is foolish. Either we, as a country are interested in the rule of law and advancing the cause of liberty, or we are not. I/we cannot force 300 million people to feel the same way. You present the GOP as the brand that is for federalism, limited government, separation of powers, and rule of law. If that doesn’t win then it is lost – let it be lost. Let’s stop fooling ourselves. Let us move on to the next phase where you and I look after our own and those near us and survive.
This is the hill to die on, though. There is nowhere else on the planet to go. If the US falls, the rest of the world is right behind. You know how they say “if the US gets a cold, the world gets the flu” (w/ regard to economics)? Well – the US is on a respirator, and the rest of the world is on life support. As soon as it dies – all of the ancillary freedom that the rest of the world enjoys goes away.
But let’s stop deluding ourselves in believing that if we just give a little on this, we’ll get a lot of that. 1986 – Reagan gave in on amnesty. They got this – we didn’t get that. Won’t get fooled again. (Forgive the cliched Who reference.)
CycloneCDB on November 9, 2012 at 11:06 PM
We need a true conservative to lead the party.
Palin 2016
ChuckTX on November 9, 2012 at 11:11 PM
Thank you, davidk.
One follow on to hawksruleva. If you are willing to do anything to win an election – but you abandon principle of advancing liberty and respecting the rule of law – really all you are doing is saying what you must to garner power.
If you’ll abandon principle to get power – how can I trust you with the power? Much the same way that Obama skirted the law with the GM bailout to cater to the UAW – ostensibly to keep the UAW satiated and keep them in his camp (slash, pay them back for their support), he used power to keep power. If you’ll abandon your principles to get power, how do I know you won’t abuse power to retain power? You will. It’s the human condition.
CycloneCDB on November 9, 2012 at 11:13 PM
Has this guy even bothered to study American history since the New Deal?
More importantly why has he failed to notice that the GOP (that he for some reason connects to conservatism) has done nothing to stop the expansion of the welfare state?
Ronald Reagan was a conservative voice who did as much as possible considering the political reality we live in (a social democracy).
The last conservative president before the creation of the social democracy was Calvin Coolidge.
The GOP as the center-right party is in the same boat as the conservatives in the UK: “we can manage government more efficiently than the other guy.”
Joseph Russo III on November 9, 2012 at 11:27 PM
this is why the founders and framers created a system of government that contained many checks and balances not only within the federal government but also between the States and the federal government.
that republic is now gone as the Constitution means nothing and federalism means nothing.
America is a social democracy in which the person robbing Peter to pay Paul will always have the support of Paul.
Joseph Russo III on November 9, 2012 at 11:29 PM
Exactly right. Who knew that the reason for so many checks was simply to delay the inevitable? They kept it alive for 200+ years. That’s a helluva run.
CycloneCDB on November 9, 2012 at 11:32 PM
“Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!” Franklin, Benjamin
“A democracy is nothing more than mob rule, where fifty-one percent of the people may take away the rights of the other forty-nine.” – Thomas Jefferson
“Our real disease – which is democracy.” – Alexander Hamilton
“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” – John Adams
Joseph Russo III on November 9, 2012 at 11:40 PM
Joseph Russo III on November 9, 2012 at 11:41 PM
Not sure if you were listening – but in the first hour, Levin covered a lot of de Tocqueville.
CycloneCDB on November 10, 2012 at 1:17 AM
We became a democracy the day we passed the 17th amendment.
Odysseus on November 10, 2012 at 5:45 AM
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