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Jay Cost

Shake it off, conservatives!

Thinking about the present day, if conservatives are right and what Walter Russell Mead has called the “blue state model” is indeed collapsing, then the GOP might not be that far away from another moment. At the least, the fact that it did not come in 2012 does not mean it is not coming.

And conservatives should be ready for it. For starters, they should ignore the triumphalists on the left espousing a permanent shift leftward. Nonsense! Yes, conservatives must do a better job of reaching out to Hispanics, but some perspective is necessary. The incumbent president is set to take in millions of fewer votes than he won in 2008. He limped across the finish line by dint of vicious demagoguery, which lowered turnout among white voters who have voted Republican in the past. Put simply, the GOP is still very much in this ballgame.

Instead, conservative should make a serious study of the leaders who made full uses of the moments when they were handed to them. On the right, these men were Bob Taft, Ronald Reagan, and George W. Bush. On the left, they were Franklin Roosevelt, Lyndon Johnson, and Barack Obama. Conservatives should ask themselves: what qualities did these leaders have in common? That will help them find the best standard bearer to guide the GOP and the conservative movement when the next moment comes.

I don’t know when that will be, but I do know that the left is wrong: The trajectory of American history is not an inevitable leftward drift. So buck up, conservatives!

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2010 proved it could be done.

All this “leftist” rhetoric is hogwash – things didn’t change that much in two years.

What happened is – bad candidate and poor leadership in the GOP.

HondaV65 on November 9, 2012 at 8:32 PM

Own it: http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2012/11/09/city-to-hold-job-fair-today-at-kennedy-king-college/

A dude showed up at 3 am for a job fair that was to open at 9. 55 city jobs open.

He, and 3,000 others who showed up, were told the only way to apply was online.

davidk on November 9, 2012 at 8:36 PM

And conservatives should be ready for it. For starters, they should ignore the triumphalists on the left espousing a permanent shift leftward. Nonsense! Yes, conservatives must do a better job of reaching out to Hispanics, but some perspective is necessary.

It isn’t just the left declaring a permanent shift leftward. Note Boehner’s post-election behavior. It’s clear that even after being handed a shattering defeat, the party establishment still has no clue.

Doomberg on November 9, 2012 at 8:38 PM

He limped across the finish line by dint of vicious demagoguery, which lowered turnout among white voters

Illogical. Why would that lower white turnout? Man, I expected some lame excuses but this…

You won’t be gaining any new red states and you’ll be losing red states. It only gets worse.

47 million is a good population for a country. A little less would be better.

Buddahpundit on November 9, 2012 at 8:40 PM

Let’s help accelerate the collapse of the Blue states by making Red states hostile to illegal immigrants and the moochers class.

Let’s demand that our state legislatures pass laws making it very difficult to qualify for taxpayer funded ‘benefits’ for citizens and not available at all for illegals. Let’s drive the moochers to the Blue states and hasten their collapse. Make them pay for their ‘compassion’

Charlemagne on November 9, 2012 at 8:42 PM

One big tea party protest against Boehner demanding he step down from speaker would work wonders. He’d be gone before the protest even assembled just on news it will assemble.

Buddahpundit on November 9, 2012 at 8:42 PM

It is not the Democrats we have to worry about. The fact is that the Republican party is now diametrically opposed to conservatives. They work to get rid of any conservative the comes along. Sarah Palin, Allen West, Newt Gingrich. Thus we will no longer have a horse in the race. it will from now forward be a choice between Marxist vs “my views are progressive”.

astonerii on November 9, 2012 at 8:43 PM

How about instead of sending $$$ to Karl Rove and other Super PACs, we send the money to new grassroots organizations that find our voters and turn them out to the polls? There might be something to this whole community organizing thing.

Punchenko on November 9, 2012 at 8:45 PM

The fear is with five Obamajustices, shaking it off will be declared unconstitutional.

Transpo on November 9, 2012 at 8:45 PM

Let’s help accelerate the collapse of the Blue states by making Red states hostile to illegal immigrants and the moochers class.

Let’s demand that our state legislatures pass laws making it very difficult to qualify for taxpayer funded ‘benefits’ for citizens and not available at all for illegals. Let’s drive the moochers to the Blue states and hasten their collapse. Make them pay for their ‘compassion’

Charlemagne on November 9, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Seconded. I know Kansas was doing some things moving in that direction. I hope they go extreme with it.

Buddahpundit on November 9, 2012 at 8:45 PM

David Burge ‏@iowahawkblog

Letting Bush tax cuts expire on $250k+ income (assuming no impact on economy) would raise $50-60B/year in revenue. DC spends $10B/day.

davidk on November 9, 2012 at 8:47 PM

Punchenko on November 9, 2012 at 8:45 PM

You might be interested in federalism as a solution to Boehner, Rove, and the entire pathetic, national GOP. Click my name to read my blog on federalism and how reestablishing it can help us defeat the Left.

Charlemagne on November 9, 2012 at 8:49 PM

One big tea party protest against Boehner demanding he step down from speaker would work wonders. He’d be gone before the protest even assembled just on news it will assemble.

Buddahpundit on November 9, 2012 at 8:42 PM

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/09/Boehner-Mocks-Tea-Party

davidk on November 9, 2012 at 8:49 PM

This is blitheringly idiotic drivel along the same lines as Art Laffer’s “I’m so glad Obama won, cause 2016!” insanity. Laffer is an economist. He should know better. Quantitative easing can’t continue indefinitely, and it will most likely be the death of the American economy writ-large. The dollar collapses, and we return to being a loose confederation of microeconomic mini-nation-states, lorded over by a corrupt distant government that is only interested in what it can extract from us.

And history repeats itself, 237 years to the year…

gryphon202 on November 9, 2012 at 8:49 PM

Conservatives didn’t lose this election. Romney wasn’t a conservative.

Warner Todd Huston on November 9, 2012 at 8:51 PM

gryphon202 on November 9, 2012 at 8:49 PM

If you don’t already live in the CSA, come on down! We’ll provide sanctuary for conservatives fleeing the decaying Blue states.

Charlemagne on November 9, 2012 at 8:52 PM

Conservatives didn’t lose this election. Romney wasn’t a conservative.

Warner Todd Huston on November 9, 2012 at 8:51 PM

Congratu-freakin-lations, Warner. I do believe you’re the first person I’ve seen here that’s called it out in such stark terms since the election. You interested in guesting on my podcast in the near future?

gryphon202 on November 9, 2012 at 8:52 PM

Follow the money.

Pundits and bloggers have a vested interest in showing a close election. They are paid by how many viewers and readers they have.

Pollsters and statisticians on the other hand have a vested interest in being accurate. They are commissioned and paid based on their historic performance.

Jay Cost is back to writing articles, so is Dean Chambers (after reaping good bit of ad revenue from unskewedpolls.com). Even Dick Morris is all over the talk shows. Same featured bloggers are back on Hotair frontpage. There’s a reason for that, they did what they were expected to do: bend the truth to keep you around. As long as they do that, regardless of which direction the elections go they get to keep their job.

On the other side, Nate’s book just rocketed up to the second bestselling book on Amazon. PPP can expect a good number of new customers. Had they called it wrong, none of this would have happened.

lester on November 9, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Hate quoting myself, but since Jay Cost is sharing his prophecies again, it seemed appropriate.

Here’s another prophecy:

And so it goes with Pennsylvania, a state that has slowly been shifting toward the Republicans for the last twenty years. Or, at least part of the state has been shifting red.

- Jay Cost, Nov 4

lester on November 9, 2012 at 8:53 PM

Yes indeed, transpo. Justice appointments are a problem. A big one.

wolly4321 on November 9, 2012 at 8:53 PM

Well if GOP house wanted to force a “big moment” just let the all the Bush Tax cuts expire and force the federal government to make the mandatory cuts.

That would hurt the blue states most and perhaps force them to question their assumptions.

William Eaton on November 9, 2012 at 8:54 PM

If you don’t already live in the CSA, come on down! We’ll provide sanctuary for conservatives fleeing the decaying Blue states.

Charlemagne on November 9, 2012 at 8:52 PM

You mean CCSA? (Constitutional AND Conservative)

gryphon202 on November 9, 2012 at 8:54 PM

They cannot lend or handle payroll for any company in the business because that would be a violation of federal drug money-laundering laws.

Some banks could argue that means they cannot even be a conduit for all the tax money promised from legalization because, from a federal perspective (and, for national banks, the federal perspective is all that matters), marijuana is still illegal. If they do business with marijuana shops, banks in these states could face civil or even criminal penalties.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/government/2012/11/09/regulatory-catch-22-legalized-marijuana/

davidk on November 9, 2012 at 8:54 PM

When I started making election predictions eight years ago, I had a very different perspective than I do today. I knew relatively little about the history of presidential elections or the geography of American politics. I had a good background in political science and statistics. So, unsurprisingly in retrospect, I focused on drawing confidence intervals from poll averages.

Since then, I have learned substantially more history, soured somewhat on political science as an academic discipline, and have become much more skeptical of public opinion polls. Both political science and the political polls too often imply a scientific precision that I no longer think actually exists in American politics. I have slowly learned that politics is a lot more art than science than I once believed.

Accordingly, what follows is a prediction based on my interpretation of the lay of the land. I know others see it differently–and they could very well be right, and I could be wrong.

I think Mitt Romney is likely to win next Tuesday.

6:00 AM, Nov 2, 2012 • By JAY COST

Shake it off, Jay Cost. You did your job.

sauldalinsky on November 9, 2012 at 8:54 PM

This coming fiscal crisis, the bankrupting bureaucracy, will be the perfect time to pass legislation that ties government spending to a low percentage of GDP.

That is totally doable and would cripple the ability of the state to expand.

hisfrogness on November 9, 2012 at 8:55 PM

If you don’t already live in the CSA, come on down! We’ll provide sanctuary for conservatives fleeing the decaying Blue states.

Charlemagne on November 9, 2012 at 8:52 PM

What is CSA?

davidk on November 9, 2012 at 8:55 PM

except our system is gradually becoming more progressive every year. And it all started with the imposition of a federal income tax. In less than a hundred year we are on the verge of socialized medicine. Guns are next.

legalimmigrant on November 9, 2012 at 8:56 PM

davidk on November 9, 2012 at 8:55 PM

You must be a Yankee.

Charlemagne on November 9, 2012 at 8:57 PM

This is the same guy who kept telling us we were going to win, right?

I used to have huge respect for Mr. Cost. Used to.

ElectricPhase on November 9, 2012 at 8:57 PM

davidk on November 9, 2012 at 8:55 PM

And I was just being facetious.

Charlemagne on November 9, 2012 at 8:57 PM

This coming fiscal crisis, the bankrupting bureaucracy, will be the perfect time to pass legislation that ties government spending to a low percentage of GDP.

That is totally doable and would cripple the ability of the state to expand.

hisfrogness on November 9, 2012 at 8:55 PM

The law that can be done, can be undone or ignored, or simply circumvented by another law.

For instance:

Income Tax: Theft by force, taxation without the appropriation that the constitution first required (but at least they did it with an amendment, of which I do not approve anyway, by the by…)

Social Security: A ponzi scheme by any practical measure. To call it otherwise would torture the definition of “ponzi scheme” beyond credulity.

Medicare: The federal government specficially forbids interstate commerce of health care. But one and only one insurance provider operates in all 50 states: THE FEDERALES.

I could go on. This isn’t even the tip of the iceberg, ladies and gentlemen. No, the last freakin thing we need is another law. The law has failed us.

gryphon202 on November 9, 2012 at 8:58 PM

One big tea party protest against Boehner demanding he step down from speaker would work wonders. He’d be gone before the protest even assembled just on news it will assemble.

Buddahpundit on November 9, 2012 at 8:42 PM

He needs to be removed as speaker.
He has been waving the white flag of surrender the whole past 4 years. He did nothing to win the House majority. He was dragged to victory kicking and screaming by the TEA party. His type don’t care about leadership. They don’t mind being in the minority. It’s good work if you can get it.

Look.. Boehner is a nice guy I am sure. He’s killing us though. The survival of our Republic is at stake and he looks like he’s half asleep. They’ve lost the passion for the fight. They’ve given up. They are admitting defeat and are ready to surrender and manage the decline of our nation. We cannot afford this kind of leadership.

At the very least… if he doesn’t feel like there’s any use.. he could still try to make the attempt to keep people’s hope alive. It is hope, perseverance and determination that gets people across the finish line to victory time and time again when everything else is against you!

Gosh.. I cannot get these two Marines that went out in the middle of the night against orders out of my mind… comparing their courage and sacrifice againts the laziness of our GOP leadership…to save as many people as they could! Against orders with only hand guns they sacrificed it all to save a few! What courage they displayed to the very end! They did all that they could with everything that they had… and it was politicians that let them down and betrayed them! And here sits our brave Republican leadership! He’s not facing an angry mob in the middle of the night. He’s got all the comforts of his office.. all he has to do is show a little backbone against a corrupt President and a corrupt media that would do nothing more than call him names and he can’t bring himself to do anything more for the sake of our nation than declare “ObamaCare is now the law of the land.”

JellyToast on November 9, 2012 at 8:59 PM

davidk on November 9, 2012 at 8:55 PM

And I was just being facetious.

Charlemagne on November 9, 2012 at 8:57 PM

Whew. Thought I might have to get my ass kicked trying to kick yours.

davidk on November 9, 2012 at 9:05 PM

But I still would like to know what the acronym “CSA” stands for.

davidk on November 9, 2012 at 9:09 PM

But I still would like to know what the acronym “CSA” stands for.

davidk on November 9, 2012 at 9:09 PM

Confederate States of America.

sharrukin on November 9, 2012 at 9:16 PM

Anyone notice how no one in the media ever talk about the Democrats shedding WHITE voters? They got 43% of the white vote in 2000 and this year it’s down to 39%. If they keep that up, Democrats are going to be the NON-WHITE party.

dforston on November 9, 2012 at 9:17 PM

Why would our Congress not object to a software company, based in Europe, who’s CEO donated to Obama, be put in charge of tallying up major portions of the Presidential election vote? It is virtually impossible for a non-professional to detect software programmed to manipulate numbers, even if anyone had the backbone to suggest looking.

http://www.conservativenewsandviews.com/2012/11/08/teaparty/obama-wins-what-happened/

Why isn’t the Republican Party leaders not ask these questions?

“I’ve still got mine.”

davidk on November 9, 2012 at 9:18 PM

I could go on. This isn’t even the tip of the iceberg, ladies and gentlemen. No, the last freakin thing we need is another law. The law has failed us.

gryphon202 on November 9, 2012 at 8:58 PM

But if you look at all the things you’ve mentioned (aside from income tax (and of course I agree with you about that)), they are all things that have increased public spending and compounded the fiscal environment to the point where we are now; a coming fiscal catastrophe.

Guess who’s holding the bag for that one? Democrats!

Perhaps it’s even a good thing that Romney lost, given that Republicans would’ve taken the brunt of criticism for any type of remedy (spending cuts) and we can assume that whatever that would’ve been would not have been enough.

Democrats are going to be in an unprecedented position (at least to my knowledge) of having to explain why all their spending is so necessary that we must do whatever horrible remedy they will come up with (which will have to be awfully horrible in order to actually deal with such a vast discrepancy).

Obama is getting away with his rhetoric now because we can still borrow cheaply. That won’t last.

So, economics are on our side. The following 4 years will be filled with Republican bashing for not spending more money, then the crisis hits and it was Republicans that were looking out for us all along.

Obviously I’m guessing as to how the crisis will unfold, but it will be an issue of spending and revenue and without the ability to borrow money cheaply the Democrats are going to be in a very tough spot.

hisfrogness on November 9, 2012 at 9:18 PM

Own it: http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2012/11/09/city-to-hold-job-fair-today-at-kennedy-king-college/

A dude showed up at 3 am for a job fair that was to open at 9. 55 city jobs open.

He, and 3,000 others who showed up, were told the only way to apply was online.

davidk on November 9, 2012 at 8:36 PM

socialism (in whatever form) is a brutal system…good for the rich and connected…sucks for everyone else

r keller on November 9, 2012 at 9:22 PM

Anyone notice how no one in the media ever talk about the Democrats shedding WHITE voters? They got 43% of the white vote in 2000 and this year it’s down to 39%. If they keep that up, Democrats are going to be the NON-WHITE party.

dforston on November 9, 2012 at 9:17 PM

That’s because they’ve won the last two elections. If the Democrats has lost the last two elections because they shed white voters you would hear more about it. It will be interesting to see if the white vote can go below 39% for them. It might be the bottom.

Mark1971 on November 9, 2012 at 9:24 PM

steyn’s analysis is better

I have no interest in the traditional straw clutching — oh, it was the weak candidate . . . hard to knock off an incumbent . . . next time we’ll have a better GOTV operation in Colorado . . . I’m always struck, if one chances to be with a GOP insider when a new poll rolls off the wire, that their first reaction is to query whether it’s of “likely” voters or merely “registered” voters. As the consultant class knows, registered voters skew more Democrat than likely voters, and polls of “all adults” skew more Democrat still. Hence the preoccupation with turnout models. In other words, if America had compulsory voting as Australia does, the Republicans would lose every time. In Oz, there’s no turnout model, because everyone turns out. The turnout-model obsession is an implicit acknowledgment of an awkward truth — that, outside the voting booth, the default setting of American society is ever more liberal and statist.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/333116/edge-abyss-mark-steyn

r keller on November 9, 2012 at 9:26 PM

Jay I’ve been called racist one too many times.

My ideas about hard work, government BEING THE ONE forced to live within its means and the freedom to go as far or as short a distance in life as one can is outmoded. The Tax Cuts that grew the treasury under Bush were evil I’m told. Guess what Jay I called MY congressman and said “let ALL the Bush tax cuts expire.”

LET IT BURN

harlekwin15 on November 9, 2012 at 9:27 PM

socialism (in whatever form) is a brutal system…good for the rich and connected…sucks for everyone else

r keller on November 9, 2012 at 9:22 PM

You go as remote as you can so the state appointed dietician can’t nutride you quite so easily and you only go for medical care when dying.

Let it burn they want the ever loving embrace of Big Daddy GuvMint who am I to argue.

They’ll die when the Federales say “sorry not cost effective.”

Let it burn and let the nation fall to the Mexican invasion we’re unleashing.

Abolish the INS free open borders.

harlekwin15 on November 9, 2012 at 9:30 PM

2010 proved it could be done.

All this “leftist” rhetoric is hogwash – things didn’t change that much in two years.

What happened is – bad candidate and poor leadership in the GOP.

HondaV65 on November 9, 2012 at 8:32 PM

I’ll give your thoughts all the respect they deserve bambi Bot.

*flush*

let it burn and I hope you’re consumed.

You gave us more Bambi as punishment for our sins?

Not a f***ing problem I’m giving you as unimpeded an Obama as I can manage.

Let it burn.

harlekwin15 on November 9, 2012 at 9:33 PM

I have been called racist. I said PROVE IT. They had nothin’ and said nothin’.

Just fight back. Stand up to stupidity. Stand up for yourself.

It’s still a center-right country.

Democrats are on the wrong side of immigration, political correctness, gun control and other topics.

Let them try to make 11 million illegals instant citizens and watch all hell break loose in this country from the 300 million already here.

Moesart on November 9, 2012 at 9:36 PM

Own it: http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2012/11/09/city-to-hold-job-fair-today-at-kennedy-king-college/

A dude showed up at 3 am for a job fair that was to open at 9. 55 city jobs open.

He, and 3,000 others who showed up, were told the only way to apply was online.

davidk on November 9, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Comments there are hilarious.

WisCon on November 9, 2012 at 9:39 PM

They think the objective is to win elections. The objective is to preserve freedom. Any discussion not centered on that is a waste of breath.

CycloneCDB on November 9, 2012 at 10:04 PM

They think the objective is to win elections. The objective is to preserve freedom. Any discussion not centered on that is a waste of breath.

CycloneCDB on November 9, 2012 at 10:04 PM

I nominate this as QOTElection.

davidk on November 9, 2012 at 10:05 PM

We could have won if:
2 Senate Candidates hadn’t made the “War on Women” attack stick
Mitt Romney hadn’t been caught on video with his 47% comment
Our GOTV software had worked. Or been tested.
Our candidate had a consistent message
We attacked our opponent instead of calling him a good guy
Our internal polls had been accurate

All of this is easily correctible, but the GOP is still running the party like it did in Lincoln’s day.

hawksruleva on November 9, 2012 at 10:09 PM

They think the objective is to win elections. The objective is to preserve freedom. Any discussion not centered on that is a waste of breath.

CycloneCDB on November 9, 2012 at 10:04 PM

How do you preserve freedom without winning elections? When the President is willing to use Executive powers to change the role of government, he can take your freedom no matter how noble a losing campaign you ran.

But the truth is, we could win without getting dirty, if we worked smarter at it.

hawksruleva on November 9, 2012 at 10:11 PM

Let them try to make 11 million illegals instant citizens and watch all hell break loose in this country from the 300 million already here.

Moesart on November 9, 2012 at 9:36 PM

Are you sure about that? After Tuesday, I don’t have as much confidence in my fellow Americans. Pretty sure they’ll flip the channel and go get another beer.

WisconsinJewels on November 9, 2012 at 10:47 PM

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