How redistricting could keep the House red for a decade
Before the election, I highlighted a report arguing that Republican control of state legislatures would end up earning them about 11 seats because of redistricting. The fact that the House total barely budged in a very good year for Democrats nationally — and in which House Democrats won the popular vote — suggests that this probably played a role.
This is especially clear if you take a look at the share of House seats won by Democrats in states where Republican-controlled legislatures redistricted in 2011 and 2012, and compare that to the share of the vote President Obama won. …
This isn’t as true for Democratic-controlled redistricting, and not just because Democrats ran redistricting in only six states. Democrats are just worse at gerrymandering when they get the chance. While Democrats outperformed their presidential vote in House races in Rhode Island, Maryland, Massachusetts and Illinois, they underperformed in Arkansas and West Virginia.