Demographics haven’t killed the GOP’s chances — yet
In the short and medium-term, it is worth asking how much of this victory can be chalked up to Obama’s personal appeal and status as a historical figure, as opposed to fundamental shifts in the American electorate. The key question is whether future Democratic candidates will be able to command the type of margins Obama enjoyed among young voters and African-Americans. Although Republicans face long-term challenges with voter demographics, Romney’s problem in this election may not have been primarily structural.
Democrats have consistently dominated Republicans among black voters in the modern era. They have also had the edge with younger voters. Obama significantly outperformed his Democratic predecessors among these groups, for reasons that seem obvious. But he won’t always be on the ballot…
The story is similar with the youth vote. In past elections, the under-29 vote has gone to Democrats consistently. John Kerry won this group by 9 points in 2004. Obama’s great achievement was not that he turned out under-29 voters in significantly higher numbers but that he inspired so many of them. He won them by an astounding 34 points in 2008.
Blowback
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It never will. The only thing destroying the Republican party is entitlements. So long as they remain on the books, you can kiss the future of this nation goodbye. So long as they remain on the books, ever more people will culturally become dependents on the state. So long as they remain on the books, you cannot out liberal progressive the Democrat.
Keep up the idea that you can have a fiscally sane government while having an immoral society. It just cannot and will not happen, ever.
astonerii on November 9, 2012 at 1:31 PM
We need to out sugar Uncle Sugar.
Look under your seats, young voters! A BRAND NEW CAR! The bill will be due when you’re older, possibly working, and caring for a family.
Thanks.
Punchenko on November 9, 2012 at 1:33 PM
What’s killing the GOP chances is their refusal to join the liberty movement – a movement that has a young and diverse following. The GOP continues to ignore the chance to embrace liberty, and show the country how tyrannical the progressive policies really are. Support the ultimate minority – the individual.
MoreLiberty on November 9, 2012 at 1:36 PM
Again, taking the black rock star off the ballot and letting the public feel the effects of his policies more than covers for the 3% or so it would take to flip the result.
The House GOP needs to hold firm on things that can’t be changed back (Obamacare, Amnesty) and cave like a caldera on things that can be swept away (tax rates, carbon tax. Yes, I said carbon tax. The man supports it. The public supports the man. Give the people what they want.)
HitNRun on November 9, 2012 at 1:36 PM
Get rid of entitlements, and I will be willing to look at items you consider liberty and I call debased.
astonerii on November 9, 2012 at 1:39 PM
Republican govs in states like FL and WI need to push for proportional apportionment of electoral votes. That literally would solve the demographic issue.
2lbsTest on November 9, 2012 at 1:43 PM
Financial liberty is part of the movement – even more so then what the GOP does in reality. We should cut back on all entitlements and welfare – to include corporate welfare. The GOP should be the party that refuses to vote for legislation that gives the President the ability to selectively and indefinitely detain US citizens on US soil. The GOP doesn’t have to embrace actions they don’t like, but they should support the right of those adults to do so – if not for any other reason then making it a states right issue.
MoreLiberty on November 9, 2012 at 1:44 PM
Not cut back, GET RID OF in total at the federal level. As long as the payment comes from so far removed from the user, no accountability can be had. 70 million people are on medicaid. Medicaid! 1/5 of the entire population!
astonerii on November 9, 2012 at 1:46 PM
I agree.
MoreLiberty on November 9, 2012 at 1:47 PM
OKIES
glad to hear it.
Now if there was only a way to get elected on that platform…
One that say says we will cut entitlements, we will cut cap and balance the budget.
Too bad we did not have someone with a real vision this go around. I of course know someone who would have run on that platform… Jobs, not food stamps! Should ring a bell.
astonerii on November 9, 2012 at 1:50 PM
Did you even vote in this election?
redridinghood on November 9, 2012 at 1:54 PM
This was from a guy at a job fair in Chicago today. Mind you, he’s looking for work. Can you guess his skill set?
Free Shit society lives on! Demographics is not the problem.
reddevil on November 9, 2012 at 1:54 PM
Obama did better with the under 29 crowd because they’re less white.
IR-MN on November 9, 2012 at 1:55 PM
Romney, Newt in primary. Full R down ticket. All my candidates I voted for won in the general, except the turd that I knew going in was a pointless vote even if he won.
astonerii on November 9, 2012 at 1:56 PM
I agree with you in theory. But we lost that battle. Roberts teed it up for us with ObamaTax and the country voted to keep it.
txmomof6 on November 9, 2012 at 1:56 PM
We’re getting there.
Punchenko on November 9, 2012 at 1:56 PM
Message. Time for an edumacation man! The electorate needs to first suffer, then learn why they are suffering. It will come.
astonerii on November 9, 2012 at 1:58 PM
No matter how much it bothers you, those people deserve medical care, and in a just society it will be provided.
ernesto on November 9, 2012 at 1:58 PM
People need to reference the Greenroom article Romney won Yong White Voters
Romney outperformed McCain.
Despite the propaganda, the pro life vote is growing, The percent rises continually, as pro lifers perform better at creating life
Black has become a permanent dependent class and they vote their paychecks. Hispanics are close behind. As Rush said Dems won with 5 states, all paycheck states. California is the main asian state. China loyal asians know the Chinese government endorsed Obama. Racial resentment of a majority cannot be discounted, since it is encouraged by the DEMs. It is a cheap easy vote getter
Obama won because the white vote is the only vote that splits. Whites are the key, and long term demographics favor conservatism.
Short term only financial collapse will break the pattern. That is inevitable, but not next year. When the crash hits, the minorities will still be minorities but the majority will re sort
entagor on November 9, 2012 at 2:00 PM
I take back half the things I’ve said about you. You’re slightly better than the Obama/Jackson voters.
Alberta_Patriot on November 9, 2012 at 2:02 PM
I hope so, because that is the only way to compete with “free stuff.” Point out that the progressives are tyrants, ready to deny you your liberties. Explain that that we shouldn’t be using drones that bomb people in foreign countries to spy on Americans. Explain that the ultimate minority is the individual – regardless of race.
MoreLiberty on November 9, 2012 at 2:07 PM
Stand back, let ALL the Bush tax cuts expire, and let the liberals make the welfare state consume itself. When they have to choose between keeping bureaucrats and keeping entitlements as they are, we know who will win…..and Santa will lose.
They can cut the entitlements themselves, to preserve bureaucrat jobs, or they can cut personnel, and be even less efficient than before at delivering the bread and circuses. The Katrina escapees seriously expected people to come around with air-conditioned vans, pack their families’ belongings, and drive them to Houston. Wait till they find out the hard way that unlike schools, there is no legally-mandated ratio for caseworkers to welfare cases. Wait until they miss an entire day just to call in when something’s not quite right on their EBTs
Sekhmet on November 9, 2012 at 2:22 PM
Has the S word that rhymes with recession been banned from this site?
DeweyWins on November 9, 2012 at 2:30 PM
Demographics?
http://www.infiltratednation.com/2012/11/colorado-counties-have-more-voters-than.html
davidk on November 9, 2012 at 2:39 PM
Good point. With all of this talk about puerto Rico becoming a state, is it not reasonable to at least discuss the option of secession? Are free men not able to even think about self determination?
MoreLiberty on November 9, 2012 at 2:50 PM
Good point. With all of this talk about Puerto Rico becoming a state, is it not reasonable to at least discuss the option of se(C)ession ? Are free men not able to even think about self determination?
On a side note, I attempted to post the word that rhymes with recession and it wouldn’t post.
MoreLiberty on November 9, 2012 at 2:54 PM
Demographics?
http://legalinsurrection.com/2012/11/the-united-states-all-town-no-country/
davidk on November 9, 2012 at 3:07 PM
Okay, MAYBE not this time, but if not now then 2016.
And I really think we’ve hit the tipping point already. Because the day Obama was elected we had four long years to come up with someone who A: didn’t shoot their foot off and B: was different and better than Obama.
Either the GOP is incompetent beyond all hope or the voting demographics have finally hit the fan.
MelonCollie on November 9, 2012 at 3:19 PM