Looks like millions of white voters stayed home on Tuesday
In other words, if our underlying assumption — that there are 7 million votes outstanding — is correct, then the African-American vote only increased by about 300,000 votes, or 0.2 percent, from 2008 to 2012. The Latino vote increased by a healthier 1.7 million votes, while the “other” category increased by about 470,000 votes…
Had the same number of white voters cast ballots in 2012 as did in 2008, the 2012 electorate would have been about 74 percent white, 12 percent black, and 9 percent Latino (the same result occurs if you build in expectations for population growth among all these groups). In other words, the reason this electorate looked so different from the 2008 electorate is almost entirely attributable to white voters staying home. The other groups increased their vote, but by less than we would have expected simply from population growth.
Put another way: The increased share of the minority vote as a percent of the total vote is not the result of a large increase in minorities in the numerator, it is a function of many fewer whites in the denominator…
My sense is these voters were unhappy with Obama. But his negative ad campaign relentlessly emphasizing Romney’s wealth and tenure at Bain Capital may have turned them off to the Republican nominee as well. The Romney campaign exacerbated this through the challenger’s failure to articulate a clear, positive agenda to address these voters’ fears, and self-inflicted wounds like the “47 percent” gaffe. Given a choice between two unpalatable options, these voters simply stayed home.
Blowback
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How many shifted from the GOP to Obama? Anyone who voted for McCain against Obama suddenly shifting after the last four years?
entagor on November 8, 2012 at 1:22 PM
Meghan McCain…. does she count as one person, or three?
UltimateBob on November 8, 2012 at 1:32 PM
Yeah, me neither…but then we are so educated and enlightened by reading and writing at Hot Air…heh.
d1carter on November 8, 2012 at 1:32 PM
^^^^^^THIS^^^^^
I’d also suggest that RR’s GOTV was either ineffective or nonexistent in non-battleground states. I live in AZ, in a heavily Mormon populated area, there was nothing around here. No signs, no calls (until the night before voting), no ads on TV. However I saw a ton of ads for Obama. Too many. The only time I saw a Romney ad was on the internet. Too many people are just not on Ace/HotAir and the like to see those ads. Reaching the hispanic vote here in AZ just wasn’t done. Shouldn’t every state be a battleground state?
mauioriginal on November 8, 2012 at 1:32 PM
To all the people moaning that we lost the election because we didn’t nominate a conservative enough candidate:
Who exactly were we supposed to nominate? Be specific. Name names.
I would have preferred a more conservative candidate, but I took a hard look at the entire field (including some who didn’t run) and even now I can’t figure out who would have done better than Romney.
It was a bad field and an even worse changing general electorate. The 47% have grown to 50.3% and they want their free stuff.
cool breeze on November 8, 2012 at 1:34 PM
I like the cut of your jib, sir, and I said right away that this wasn’t directly at you specifically, but a lot of people who get moany. I’m honestly sorry if you thought I was singling you out.
If more people had your attitude it would make a difference. Money talks to these people.
Another thing people forget is that we really don’t have to do without entertainment if you know where to look. I won’t be specific but arrrr matey.
Game of Thrones is a book series turned into a TV series. I just used that as one poster here refused to give up HBO solely based on that.
kim roy on November 8, 2012 at 1:35 PM
mauioriginal
Karl Rove makes lots of money, many think he deserves the pay, but what he does is unknown other than he gets big checks no matter the outcome. In fact the swiftboat guys took out Kerry not high priced Rove.
Many call centers where set up, the calls went to people who were all ready going to vote for Romeny. No calls went to these ones who did not vote. The R’s call it VoterVault, a thingamagig Rove invented to make his pay bigger.
APACHEWHOKNOWS on November 8, 2012 at 1:38 PM
Fixed that for you.
libfreeordie on November 8, 2012 at 1:38 PM
I think Trende’s initial reaction that white voters had a problem with Romney’s mormonism is probably the accurate one. The Bain attacks only happened in the swing states.
I suspect that had Romney been a Protestant, there would have been another 5 million+ votes that would have broken overwhelmingly for him and the results of the election would have been reversed.
Chameleon on November 8, 2012 at 1:39 PM
I wouldn’t go by national numbers. Lets see the result by state. But I will say that there was not ONE single GOTV effort by a single Republican candidate in California. I was not contacted by ANYONE. I voted, but I am willing to bet several hundred thousand in California just figured their vote didn’t matter and stayed home. That’s a self-fulfilling prophecy.
crosspatch on November 8, 2012 at 1:39 PM
When Israel and Iran bomb the snot out of each other or Iran craters Israel and the emboldened Muslim brotherhood take out a building or another embassy/ambassador, do remember your comment here today.
kim roy on November 8, 2012 at 1:40 PM
Romney also did a bad job mobilizing these people. These were also the folks whose votes he worked hard to supress in the primary with his own negative campaiging.
The GOP had ample warning as to what would happen if they tried to run Romney and it clear those warnings were well-founded. This stuff about “the electorate is stupid” is just clueless and out-of-touch. This is the same BS we heard from the Democrats in 2004 when Kerry lost.
Doomberg on November 8, 2012 at 1:40 PM
*applause*
Since Hollywood likes to share the wealth just remember arrrr matey.
kim roy on November 8, 2012 at 1:41 PM
No problem, I understand where you’re coming from. I did not overlook the fact that you clearly stated that your comment was not directed at me personally, I just wanted to make my position known to the Hot Air community at large.
And thank you for the Iowahawk-esque compliment.
UltimateBob on November 8, 2012 at 1:42 PM
Remember, Romney was the most electable.
Here is the comment styles from when Romney was winning the primary.
Obama is so terrible the conservatives HAVE TO TURN OUT. F&CK what the conservatives want, we will shove ROMNEY down their GOD DAMNED THROATS and they will like it because of Obama!
Choke on it.
astonerii on November 8, 2012 at 1:42 PM
It sounds like these missing voters are neither conservatives nor libertarians. Maybe they would have voted for Ross Perot. If they were angry true cons or Paulbots, at least a healthy portion of them would have voted for Gary Johnson. Yet he received only 1% of the total vote.
There is still no way to square this circle. The bruising white populism last practiced by Lee Atwater is no longer socially acceptable in the Republican base, let alone among the elite. How many conservatives would have voted for Donald Trump?
Seth Halpern on November 8, 2012 at 1:44 PM
I think GOTV can be blamed partially, and perhaps some were hesitant to vote for a Mormon – but it’s mostly the hundreds of millions the Democrats spent attacking Mitt’s character and defining him as rich and out-of-touch with working folks. There needed to be a more aggressive response to that earlier in the campaign – but they didn’t do it.
TarheelBen on November 8, 2012 at 1:46 PM
Where’s my comment?
Anyway it sounds like these would have been Ross Perot voters. Not exactly GOP material.
Seth Halpern on November 8, 2012 at 1:47 PM
I think you are absolutely correct. Along with gas and food, look for large increases in electricity rates.
mbs on November 8, 2012 at 1:48 PM
This does seem to make a lot more sense than the electorate simply shifting from 2008′s D+7 to 2010′s R+1 back to 2012′s D+6. That’s too big of a swing back and forth to make any sense absent some sort of big economic recovery which of course never materialized.
Clearly for whatever reason a lot of Republican voters did not show up. We need to find out why. I said the other day I was fine with it being anti-Mormonism. As offensive at that would be, at least we know how to avoid the same problem next time. If it was Romney’s wealth, also fine. None of the early contenders for 2016 will have that “burden”. But the GOP better find out why people sat at home considering how much was at stake and how successful they were in getting them to turn out just 2 years earlier.
Doughboy on November 8, 2012 at 1:48 PM
Largely true. I got at least 10 robo-calls to support Mary Bono Mack, my congresswoman, and several calls on state and local propositions. I didn’t get one call from the state or county GOP. Not one. I got a robo-call from Reince Priebus Sunday before the election.
I’m betting at least half of the Republican voters in California had never heard of Elizabeth Emken (running fruitlessly against Dianne Feinstein). I never saw one ad for her and didn’t get a phone call or solicitation to support her campaign.
I call the CAGOP “The Feckless Boys.” They’ve just about run out of their own feet to shoot.
J.E. Dyer on November 8, 2012 at 1:51 PM
If we do not stick together we will fall one by one.
APACHEWHOKNOWS on November 8, 2012 at 1:51 PM
All the sane candidates stayed out because it was obvious the fix was in for Romney.
alwaysfiredup on November 8, 2012 at 1:52 PM
You think I’m happy? I’m a hardcore Palinista that was devastated when she didn’t run. I understood why and today I understand even better.
Who was your candidate? I really liked Gingrich, but he would have been eviscerated by the media. We would have done worse. We can only go by who decided to run and that was it. Cain? Good man. Again, eviscerated and ran away when the Allred Army came out. Speaking of, did you see they tried to Allred Romney?
Until we neuter the media, they have the platform and the microphone. What are YOU doing about it? And yes, I’m asking YOU specifically since you b!tch and moan here all the time.
I refuse to blame Romney for this. I blame 40+ years of liberal indoctrination making the population lazy and stupid. I blame us for letting it happen. We have to fight back.
Conservatism is only as good as the people who can learn it. If there’s no platform or a way to get the message out with out static then it’s going no where.
We have a media that can cover up Benghazi. You think a conservative, one who will go against their beliefs, has a chance?
Yeah, okay then.
kim roy on November 8, 2012 at 1:52 PM
BTW, this analysis is good but incomplete. From the exit polls it’s clear that the 18-29 vote jumped 1% as did the 45-64 range which no one seems to mention. The big thing they leave out is the percentage of voters who are 30-44 dropped a full 2 points. Did this age group just up and disappear? Did we have an epidemic taking out millions of 30-44 yea olds? Seniors stayed steady at 16%.
Given what is pointed out here with the white vote and that drop in 30-44 year olds someone needs to answer…
What was going on with these 2 candidates that caused so many 30-44 year whites to not vote in this election?
Rocks on November 8, 2012 at 1:52 PM
there’s no reason Romney couldn’t have appealed to Ross Perot voters. It would have required some populist rhetoric, though, and the Romney guys hate populists. they’ve said so on this board often enough.
alwaysfiredup on November 8, 2012 at 1:53 PM
libfreeordie
Beware the democrats need more deceased voters every cycle.
APACHEWHOKNOWS on November 8, 2012 at 1:55 PM
All the sane candidates stayed out because it was obvious the fix was in for Romney.
alwaysfiredup on November 8, 2012 at 1:52 PM
Who? Name names.
cool breeze on November 8, 2012 at 1:55 PM
30-44 y/o are LT unemployed and pissed off about it. All Romney wanted to talk about was taxes and about how his policies would help everyone. “I have a plan to create jobs.” Great. What is your plan? Tax reform? Reduce regulations? snooze. It sounds like platitudes because it is platitudes.
alwaysfiredup on November 8, 2012 at 1:56 PM
Hopefully they will do this, rather than rushing to do amnesty. The whispering for amnesty which started on practically on election night is really making nervous. If this thinking infects Republican “elite/Establishment” opinion it may be impossible for factual analysis of the voting trends in 2012 to uproot it.
Doomberg on November 8, 2012 at 1:57 PM
Paul Ryan, Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour, Sarah Palin, and I’m sure there were others whose names never made it to the papers.
alwaysfiredup on November 8, 2012 at 1:58 PM
If you think that’s why you lost, sleeper conservatroll, there are not enough words in the English language to describe what an idiot you are.
MelonCollie on November 8, 2012 at 1:58 PM
Some real truth there. Doesn’t mean pol ops didn’t latch on, but the swift boaters had to fight and take abuse to get out the message. In the end there was some serious admiration for anyone willing to take such huge hits, and that gained the swifters credibility
I appreciated Romney coming to Michigan, but he was preaching to the converted. A few clips of him and fans on local tv. His last visit should have been accompanied by an ad burst. He is working blue collar independents and DEMS. He had to get ads out for them to distrust Obama for the state of the state of Michigan. Ads had to be tailored to Michigan and never were. He had to show he was not just trawling for votes, but coming to help Michigan
Meanwhile for months, in tv ads. DEM Senator Stabenow was hammering the GOP, not her opponent, for trying to rob Medicare, while she was fighting to save it. The net result was against the GOP, not her opponent
Wasn’t anyone else seeing this? They should have matched her ads by using her opponent as cover to hammer the DEM party for cutting Medicare off at the knees, and those ads should have used Romney quotes for name recognition
What I can’t figure is they had a ton of bucks. Where did it go?
Very few good ads at all on any side. Stabenow hammer was an exception, and she spent beaucoup bucks. Why, if she was a shoe-in. The bucks were against Romney.
I think they ought to look for new talent and stop hiring from the inbreds
entagor on November 8, 2012 at 1:59 PM
I had been screaming all summer that you can’t let such personal attacks go unanswered, and it looks like it did in fact have the desired effect should these numbers be believed.
Daemonocracy on November 8, 2012 at 2:00 PM
This is the danger I see going forward. The GOP better figure out how to get their traditional voters out to the polls instead of looking over at the Dems and saying what demographic can we get from them. If they can walk and chew gum at the same time, they could do both!
d1carter on November 8, 2012 at 2:01 PM
Who? Name names.
Romney had to slog through nearly the entire primary calendar to win the nomination. Preferences swung back and forth wildly and virtually every candidate got their turn to lead the polls for a while. How can that be considered the fix being in?
cool breeze on November 8, 2012 at 1:55 PM
cool breeze on November 8, 2012 at 2:01 PM
I think they’ll come to their senses on that one pretty quick. Unless they want a repeat of 2006 and 2008. They didn’t even get amnesty passed and got slaughtered at the polls when the base stayed home out of disgust.
Doughboy on November 8, 2012 at 2:01 PM
Mike Pence, Bobby Jindal, and Mitch Daniels were being suggested as possible candidates. I can’t really offer much besides conjecture, but it is entirely possible these men may have decided Romney was unbeatable and simply chosen to sit this one out. Obviously in the case of Daniels there was also the issue of his wife.
Doomberg on November 8, 2012 at 2:02 PM
Livelongandprosper seems a better blog handle.
Or livetaxfree
APACHEWHOKNOWS on November 8, 2012 at 2:04 PM
MellonDog,
Bricks and stones.
Bones and words.
Bad and good have meetup problems.
APACHEWHOKNOWS on November 8, 2012 at 2:06 PM
Right, and the Democrats’ voter suppression appears to have been aimed directly at white working class voters – and it was effective with some in portraying Romney as the rich, out-of-touch plutocrat who enjoyed closing down plants, etc. Millions of dollars in ads like this, run in the battleground states for months – and with no response from Team Romney – it has an effect.
TarheelBen on November 8, 2012 at 2:07 PM
More people voted Republican in 2012 than in 2010.
BadgerHawk on November 8, 2012 at 2:10 PM
You can start making sense any time now.
MelonCollie on November 8, 2012 at 2:11 PM
I voted for Romney because Romney is white. If Democrats can vote based on skin color and it’s just great why can’t the rest of us?
Moesart on November 8, 2012 at 2:12 PM
I went against my moral compass and voted for Romney. I stayed in the process, as you can recall from the hated primary result to the election and today.
What happened was that those voters the retards in the new media screwed by destroying every candidate that stood against Mr. Electable got out of the process.
I am not saying you are happy about it. But blaming the voter for the candidates failure is not going to get these people back into the process. They will just stay out. They are conservative, they will make do with what they are handed and move on. I do not need no freaking government, and the government getting in my way will not stop me in the end either.
They are probably the same. They voted into power Reagan, and got a descent return on investment. Voted into power Bush Sr and got screwed. Clinton gave them a better deal than dole would have with Newt as the force behind him getting it. They took a chance on Bush Jr, and got back stabbed repeatedly! McCain effectively if not deliberately threw the 2008 election and it is was not like they liked him. 2010 came along and they took back the house, to no effect other than we now face the fiscal cliff the House voted for. Then to have Romney foisted upon them. They had no dog in the race, so they stayed home.
Time to give the conservatives a dog in the race, or you can kiss 2014 and 2016 goodbye as well.
As for the F&CK YOU CONSERVATIVES YOU WILL SWALLOW ROMNEY WHETHER YOU LIKE IT OR NOT people, well, we conservatives, the real ones that live the life of conservancy will do just fine. My daughter will be home schooled. I will work hard. I will avoid every tax dollar I can legally get away with. I will have a stockpile of needed items stored and ready for use, rotated as needed. I will help my family and close friends as needed and donate to a church and other charities as needed.
For those of you who are “conservative” in talk only. May God make the burden of your lives bearable.
astonerii on November 8, 2012 at 2:12 PM
Paul Ryan was on the ticket and it didn’t seem to matter.
Mitch Daniels has skeletons in his closet (his wife) that he didn’t want exposed. Got to figure he knows better than us.
Haley Barbour, no idea. Was he ever serious? Is he now that Romney is out of the picture?
Sarah Palin, oh spare me. Sky high negatives, plus Sarah needs to learn that you need to run in order to win, and if you win, you need to serve your term, not quit wailing “too hard!”
But thanks for a serious list of names in any case.
cool breeze on November 8, 2012 at 2:12 PM
According to the WSJ, one problem Romney had from the time he was presumptive nominee to the time he was nominated at the convention was that he was largely out of money from his primary campaign and couldn’t get access to his general election fund. SuperPACs apparently spent plenty to make up for it, but their messages largely criticized Obama rather than building up Romney.
Also, Romney also quietly spent a lot of time traveling to fundraisers that were in non-battleground areas–with one exception being the FL stop at which some employee filmed him making the 47% crack.
Just repeating what I read today.
BuckeyeSam on November 8, 2012 at 2:18 PM
They couldn’t have been that unhappy about him if they didn’t care enough to show up at the polls to help get rid of him. They didn’t care if he got another term…that says enough.
lynncgb on November 8, 2012 at 2:20 PM
Thanks for another serious list of names.
Mike Pence. It is very hard to make the jump from the House straight to the Presidency. Candidates tend to need a term as a governor or Senator first. The same applies to Paul Ryan. Didn’t work out well for Michelle Bachmann, who tried.
Bobby Jindal concluded, I think correctly, that he needed more time in office before running for the Presidency.
Mitch Daniels was dealt with both in your comments and my comments above. Those skeleton don’t tend to get better with age, so I would guess he is out of the picture permanently.
cool breeze on November 8, 2012 at 2:24 PM
I don’t think it was any one thing, but a combination of things. Here’s my list in order of importance:
(1) Obama’s negative attacks on Romney turned the less politically inclined off to him.
(2) There’s a lot of people unemployed and on welfare. The majority don’t want to be there and want to get a job, but at the same time they’re afraid. They certainly can’t vote for Obama, but at the same time they worry about losing their government checks. So instead of voting…they just stayed home.
(3) Romney was perceived by many conservatives as neither a true fiscal conservative nor a true social conservative. The hardcore in each group could not force themselves to vote for him.
(4) To some, Mormonism was a big deal and I’m sure it kept some from voting, but I doubt it was the deciding factor.
One thing that struck me in NC was several anecdotal encounters I had. I know several libs that voted for Obama that were really upset with him and would not vote for him again. However, all said that Romney was pure evil and voted for Johnson instead even though they admitted that it was throwing their vote away. I also overhead a conversation between 2 conservatives at the gym. Both were anxious to get rid of Obama, but they just hated Romney. One guy said he wasn’t going to vote and the other wrote in his own name and said he wished McCain was running again. My eyes just about rolled out of my head with that one. My conclusion is that Obama did a great job at vilifying Romney.
ReaganWasRight on November 8, 2012 at 2:35 PM
I know Romney could have gotten those people to vote for him if he came out strongly in favor of gay marriage, abortion and amnesty. Let me be perfectly clear…I am not a liberal concern troll. This is not about politics.
Wigglesworth on November 8, 2012 at 2:43 PM
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