Looks like millions of white voters stayed home on Tuesday
In other words, if our underlying assumption — that there are 7 million votes outstanding — is correct, then the African-American vote only increased by about 300,000 votes, or 0.2 percent, from 2008 to 2012. The Latino vote increased by a healthier 1.7 million votes, while the “other” category increased by about 470,000 votes…
Had the same number of white voters cast ballots in 2012 as did in 2008, the 2012 electorate would have been about 74 percent white, 12 percent black, and 9 percent Latino (the same result occurs if you build in expectations for population growth among all these groups). In other words, the reason this electorate looked so different from the 2008 electorate is almost entirely attributable to white voters staying home. The other groups increased their vote, but by less than we would have expected simply from population growth.
Put another way: The increased share of the minority vote as a percent of the total vote is not the result of a large increase in minorities in the numerator, it is a function of many fewer whites in the denominator…
My sense is these voters were unhappy with Obama. But his negative ad campaign relentlessly emphasizing Romney’s wealth and tenure at Bain Capital may have turned them off to the Republican nominee as well. The Romney campaign exacerbated this through the challenger’s failure to articulate a clear, positive agenda to address these voters’ fears, and self-inflicted wounds like the “47 percent” gaffe. Given a choice between two unpalatable options, these voters simply stayed home.
Blowback
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I never click them. However, if one click from Hot Gas informs thousands of us, then I find that acceptable and actually like it as I think of it in a way as ripping your CD and then passing around the MP3s to every since friend you have.
kim roy on November 8, 2012 at 12:51 PM
Negative campaigns work.
Depressing potential opposition voters work.
Plenty of fiscal cons and libertarians didn’t think Mitt would not be enough of a difference (whether to vote or not vote for Gary Johnson)
- TX turnout was 1 percentage point off from 2008, Romney did better… but turnout was 11 percentage points off of 1992 when Perot ran… (not sure if motor-voting registration is the cause of some of the difference) I would be interested to see how other states have fared over time…
there are plenty of people who don’t understand that the current Democrat party is not the party of Clinton…
phreshone on November 8, 2012 at 12:52 PM
No, look, at some point we have to let the Free Stuff crowd get the kind of government they richly deserve.
It will, at some point, only dawn on them that it was all terribly wrong when the checks stop coming. That won’t happen until the Last Margin Call.
That’s coming.
victor82 on November 8, 2012 at 12:52 PM
Notifying their sponsors would help, too. I’m not talking about a boycott necessarily. Just tell them you are not watching a program on which they advertise because its ideology is repugnant to you.
It is easy with the internet. Just find their websites and punch the “contact” button.
davidk on November 8, 2012 at 12:53 PM
Stop right there. How does he know the racial makeup of that outstanding vote? Especially since it includes Miami-Dad, a lot of absentee and provisional ballots. I think the exit polls can’t account for early voters and are probably under sampling Dem constituent turn out.
libfreeordie on November 8, 2012 at 12:55 PM
We all saw the polling places on Tuesday
This is BULL.
We are being lied to.
stenwin77 on November 8, 2012 at 12:55 PM
Since you asked,
1) I cancelled HBO even though it was coming to my house for free. I told my cable company that I did not want any channel coming into my house that carried Bill Maher’s show. I enjoy classic movies more than most of the junk that comes out today.
2) I don’t play video games, so I don’t even know what the hell Game of Thrones is.
3) I get basic cable, I do not pay for any premium channels. My cable provider is Comcast, who unfortunately supports leftist causes, but their service is good and other choices in my area are limited and more expensive. The books I read are mostly non-fiction by conservative authors, and I no longer buy pop or rock music because it is mostly produced by leftist artists.
4) I have cancelled my Costco membership because they, too, supported 0bama which I find reprehensible. I do not eat at Arby’s but I enjoy a Chick-Fil-A meal now and then.
I know how boycotts work, and I use them regularly to “vote with my dollar.”
And finally, on my facebook page, I share Palin’s posts and leave the topic open for discussion. Most leftists only comment with stuff like “I can’t believe you like her”, but I always get a lot of “likes” when I share her posts.
UltimateBob on November 8, 2012 at 12:56 PM
It was a description of a critical problem with democracy that was poorly stated.
In fact, it should have cemented his position with the holier-than-thou palinista/tru-cons. It was saying something that if they were truly conservative, they should have understood instinctively.
Alberta_Patriot on November 8, 2012 at 12:56 PM
BTW, I forgot to address Obamacare, which is cause us to have a VAT tax. We are in deep dodo.
I think in a 140 character world, the percentage of low information voters are just increasing. It’s just harder to win with reason again emotion now.
Oil Can on November 8, 2012 at 12:57 PM
Liar, the actual number is 52%.
Schadenfreude on November 8, 2012 at 12:58 PM
It’s not a video game. It’s a series of “sword and sorcery” novels that got turned into a popular TV series.
Alberta_Patriot on November 8, 2012 at 12:59 PM
THIS
cmsinaz on November 8, 2012 at 12:59 PM
At least that minimizes the clicks.
Dongemaharu on November 8, 2012 at 12:59 PM
Because elections have, and always will be, a popularity contest.
Patrician candidates like Romney, Kerry, and George H.W. Bush usually lose to the folksy, more down-to-earth guy with middle class credentials. Since neither had those qualities, some voters must have shrugged their shoulders and stayed home. I recall a white woman standing in the voting line with me complaining about both candidates, their ads, and what liars they both were. She didn’t like Barry, but she didn’t like Romney either, for that matter. The big issues simply didn’t matter because, let’s face it: most folks aren’t political junkies or wonks like we are.
I became rather worried at that moment — especially since I live in a very, very rural area. The *urgency* of kicking out Barry just wasn’t there with some of these rural voters. Oh, and ground game — contacting these voters, getting them out, and us making it *urgent* for them (like Democrats do) — could have made the difference.
The GOP has to run smart, charismatic candidates that can reach the middle class and who embody the American dream. Ronald Reagan was the American dream. We’re not going to win with a candidate far removed from our base of mostly middle class suburbanite and rural voters.
We also have to be patient and understand that not everyone is economically or politically literate, and that image, narrative, and communication skills ALL MATTER when finding our candidates.
Punchenko on November 8, 2012 at 1:00 PM
Don’t know how accurate the numbers are…
of the ones who voted, 52% are mooching rats, with 1% of them looting types, represented by the lifestyle of Michelle Obama.
The US is the land of the free stupid.
Starve the looters. They are the bane of the land.
Schadenfreude on November 8, 2012 at 1:00 PM
Greece is the word, the word, the word…
d1carter on November 8, 2012 at 1:01 PM
As a white conservative who did not vote for Romney, his religion had nothing to do with it. What bothered me was the fact that he was the governor of Massachusetts. No conservative wins that office in this age. He has flipped and flopped on just as many issues as John Kerrey (must be something about that state…).
If Obama is a socialist, then Romney is socialist light. When choosing between the real article and a lesser imitation, people are going to go with the genuine. McCain was simply Obama with a military record.
When the Repubs start offering the country a REAL CHOICE, then we might see people start paying attention and get off of default mode.
And to those who are about to flame and accuse me of losing the election for them; I live in Idaho. Mitt still won 66% of the vote here. My token third party vote had absolutely zero impact on the results.
Ace ODale on November 8, 2012 at 1:02 PM
The national exit poll showed that evangelicals did show up.
It was 2008 Obama voters that sat this one out. And if they couldn’t show up to vote Republican this time, after the past four years, it’s unlikely they’ll turn out in 2016.
BadgerHawk on November 8, 2012 at 1:08 PM
Actually, I just don’t believe this. Look at the early voting numbers and the long lines of voting on election day. I just think there were some major voting problems (daresay fraud). I bet if we would look at the real voting records we will find hundreds of thousands of votes for Gov. Romney not recorded. I am not into conspiracies, but things just don’t line up properly.
Voter from WA State on November 8, 2012 at 1:08 PM
Thanks … in the choice between a socialist who hates America and a man who doesn’t you picked the man who hates America.
If you’re calling Romney a socialist then you have no idea what a socialist believes.
darwin on November 8, 2012 at 1:09 PM
Wait until 2014 when the full impact of Obamacare its the country. I bet the GOP takes over the Senate and increases its control of the House.
Voter from WA State on November 8, 2012 at 1:10 PM
When there is no value, there will be nothing to tax.
When the cost of getting food to the urban centers is to high the food will not arive in the food stores in urban centers. The Goverment will not be able to do the trucking themselves, they can not even deliver mail now.
When all that comes to pass the free stuff people will not even know how to put a truck on the road, or how to plant a seed.
The Real World is Real.
APACHEWHOKNOWS on November 8, 2012 at 1:10 PM
It is pretty apparent that he is one of those people we used to refer to as “John Birchers”.
Voter from WA State on November 8, 2012 at 1:11 PM
You appear to have not read my entire post. But I understand. Comprehension can be hard…
Ace ODale on November 8, 2012 at 1:12 PM
It was still a foolish masterbatory vote. But at least you still have your “principles” while the rest of us actually tried to save the republic from the looters and moochers.
jawkneemusic on November 8, 2012 at 1:12 PM
BadgerHawk,
Come up with some new crap, that is old and stinkey already.
APACHEWHOKNOWS on November 8, 2012 at 1:12 PM
Anyone blaming the conservatives for failing to show up to vote for a government official have to explain what they get out of the vote. Romney failed to do that. Plain and simple. Conservatives, the ones with convictions that match rhetoric just plain get nothing out of a Romney presidency.
Bush proved this with his compassionate conservatism that was significantly more conservative than Romney would ever offer.
If you are not going to offer conservatives a choice, you cannot blame them from staying home. Romney was not a choice.
astonerii on November 8, 2012 at 1:13 PM
Watch the price of gas. As it rises, so will all the rest of food. Milk follow almost on the same track as gas. I expect food to increase by at least 50% by next year at this time.
And I work in the food industry. That increase is going to cripple my business.
Voter from WA State on November 8, 2012 at 1:13 PM
So they basically voted for BO. I guess we know who to blame.
Voter from WA State on November 8, 2012 at 1:14 PM
…..and they will be blamed for it.
Mimzey on November 8, 2012 at 1:14 PM
Not for the impact of Obamacare. Businesses are starting to give out layoffs or closing doors. That doesn’t come from the GOPs.
Voter from WA State on November 8, 2012 at 1:15 PM
I’ve been saying this for a day and got called a smug clown for my troubles.
Listen, I know a lot of people make up stats on the spot but before you call them out for being wrong at least make sure it isn’t for easily available and obviously true stats.
And NO, it wasn’t Mormonism that kept them home. It was that we nominated and ran Dole/Kemp 2.0. The only other ticket to lose an election to an incumbent when total voter turnout decreased compared to the previous in the last century.
Romney/Ryan was even worse than Dole/Kemp because they are the first ticket I can find that lost an election to an incumbent when that incumbent received millions of less votes than he had in getting elected.
Rocks on November 8, 2012 at 1:16 PM
No, I read it. I simply don’t understand the logic.
darwin on November 8, 2012 at 1:16 PM
Plain and simple.
What they get out of their ideological paralysis is the complete loss of their country and their freedoms.
Thanks for the purity.
It means a lot.
Mimzey on November 8, 2012 at 1:17 PM
When the choice is a man who is killing America and a man who wants to restore America staying home is insanity. It’s not like Obama is Harry Truman or JFK.
darwin on November 8, 2012 at 1:18 PM
Obama voter 3 years out.
“Where is my cake?”
Obama,
“I ended CO2, I did not know corn ate CO2″. I got nothing for you, but I will use your vote once you die.
APACHEWHOKNOWS on November 8, 2012 at 1:18 PM
Since everything Dear Leader did in his first term is back end loaded so that the negatives wouldn’t hit home until after this election, it is going to be interesting to see how his “supporters” respond. Some may become taxpayers again!
d1carter on November 8, 2012 at 1:21 PM
Ahh thanks, that does work.
clearbluesky on November 8, 2012 at 1:21 PM
I did my part today, cancelled land line and all of cable,
the sales rep tried to sell me another alternative and asked me what made my decision. I said TUESDAY, and he said “what do you mean?” My response, the election duh…. “I have to feed my family and keep them warm, soon we will have to carry a wheel barrow full of money to buy a loaf of bread.”
He was dumb struck…
MontanaMmmm on November 8, 2012 at 1:21 PM
And when you do blame them, why shouldn’t they simply laugh in your face?
How people thought they could win by blaming and shaming people into voting for their phoney-baloney-conservative candidate is beyond me. If people don’t believe your candidate when he claims to be an alternative to the guy already in office, it’s on the candidate to convince them otherwise; you can’t just harangue them for failing to save the country — not if you expect results.
Aitch748 on November 8, 2012 at 1:21 PM
which means their intent was keep dear leader in without actually pulling the lever for him
they can’t complain once the $h!t hits the fan…they own this castastrophe just as much as the folks who actually voted for obama…
cmsinaz on November 8, 2012 at 1:22 PM
Good article. The fact Romney is 2.5 million votes behind McCain cannot be denied. A bunch of McCain voters stayed home, and McCain practically had to blackmail voters to get them to pull the lever
How many shifted from the GOP to Obama? Anyone who voted for McCain against Obama suddenly shifting after the last four years?
I have heard the ‘why bother’ from people who have given up on all politicians.
Obama did not leave these people in good shape, they are screwed and they know it. Four years was too long for them to trust Obama.
Romney promised various fixes which are all long term.
1. Education. Most of these people are past going into re-education. They are working age. I don’t know anyone around here unfamiliar with union bargained job retraining for laid off workers. We know where it gets most
2. Tax cuts to boost the economy. Walk in a restaurant and see empty tables. If the owner gets a tax cut, is he going to hire anyone for empty tables? These voters are the ones who lost the restaurant job
3. China currency cheating. It is the jobs at the end of the currency chain these people care about and Romney was not able to make the connection to their lives
4. Repeal Obamacare. Those who wanted Obamacare moved to Obama. We don’t have Obamacare right now, and the lost voters are still screwed
5. Energy independence. They hit oil in the Dakotas and gas is still 4 bucks.
Romney could not get out of his business shoes and into the heads of these folk. There was a lack of connecting the dots
It would have been worth a little less teacher love, to say: currency cheating by China sounds trivial but its big. They make it so someone can trade their pounds or rubles for way more chinese bucks than american bucks, so people won’t buy american. But then Romney needed a zinger – it is called closing the deal. The zinger was not getting after currency cheating. The zinger should have been: ggoing after currency cheating slows down the drain of jobs out of the US. We have to stop the bleeding to rebuild our factories. First stop the bleeding. Repeat
Romney is so good at communicating, but he missed this group. They won’t be won by having the GOP kick out the tea party.Kick out the Tea party (a group of little people) and there is one more reason to hate pols
This article is a positive for conservatives. These people are not lost just forgotten. I doubt Obama can win them.
entagor on November 8, 2012 at 1:22 PM
But they will.
It’ll be…”So fix this already!” And when putting the broken egg back together proves impossible, the blame will go to the ones on the stage…while the prog/dems will be shouting among the crowds,
“See…see what they did!!..what good are they?…we tried to warn you about Them!…OFF WITH THEIR HEADS!!”
Mimzey on November 8, 2012 at 1:22 PM
As Neil Boortz said, the uneducated voter is the greatest danger to America.
Obama voters want free stuff. And 12% or whatever didn’t even choose who to vote for until the last few days. Dumb people.
Moesart on November 8, 2012 at 1:24 PM
Do you understand that the GOP just lost a net 2 Senate seats in an election in which we should have easily picked up several? Harry Reid now has a 55-45 majority.
The 2012 Senate debacle probably put taking over the Senate in 2014 out of reach. Second Senate election in a row that the Stupid Party has shot itself in both feet.
cool breeze on November 8, 2012 at 1:25 PM
so, those who stayed home gave us mob rule, temporary, but still…
runner on November 8, 2012 at 1:27 PM
Look at this article – it shows you where the lack of turnout was in Ohio. It was mostly in rural counties. I’m convinced that the Democrat negative campaign – demonizing Romney as this rich, out-of-touch guy – suppressed a lot of our vote. These voters would have been the old Reagan Democrats and lots of working class white voters.
One problem with the Romney campaign – for too long in the Spring and early Summer, they did not respond to Obama’s negative attacks on Romney’s character – and the meme took hold.
TarheelBen on November 8, 2012 at 1:28 PM
I think this is right. “The little people” just did not relate to either candidate. The legacy media did a good job of portraying their opponent, Mitt Romney. And Mitt did nothing to overcome that. He counted on getting those votes because he thought they wouldn’t vote for BHO. They didn’t but they didn’t vote for him either.
d1carter on November 8, 2012 at 1:29 PM
Wasn’t me.
J.E. Dyer on November 8, 2012 at 1:31 PM
Hate =’s Obama
Obama =’s Hate
It is a bad equation and not a solution.
APACHEWHOKNOWS on November 8, 2012 at 1:32 PM
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