The brutal truth: The electorate has shifted
That has tough implications for the Republican Party and the conservative movement. Since George W. Bush it has operated on the presumption that needs only to rev up its base voters to win an election. This had the happy coincidence of also meaning that the way to win an election was to be solidly conservative. The 2012 election suggests that is no longer enough.
It doesn’t follow from this though that the way for the Republican Party to win again is reject conservatism. That would alienate the voters it does have in the speculative hopes of replacing them with others. You don’t build coalitions by ejecting existing components. The way to win is to make conservatism a more appealing idea and to realize that coalitions are necessary. The movement needs to think hard about how it is going to expand its base.
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Dow plunging 300 points and counting.
The Count on November 7, 2012 at 11:55 AM
Expand your beliefs to take into account Obama received 10 million fewer votes than in 2008 – a drop of 16% support. We lost because Mitt – who would have made an excellent President – received 3 million fewer votes than McCain – who would have been a lousy President. We lost because sufficient numbers of palinistas and evangelicals preferred Obama to Romney.
Basilsbest on November 7, 2012 at 11:56 AM
There are sadly enough bread-and-circus voters to at least put all future Democrat candidates in “cheating range” for the foreseeable future as long as things stay the same. We need to change things, bankrupt circuses and burn granaries. Make blue politicians have to choose between enforcing their will and quelling a hungry mob.
Sekhmet on November 7, 2012 at 11:59 AM
Romney received 57,263,941 votes.
That is fewer votes than Bush in 2004 – 62,040,000.
That is fewer votes than McCain in 2008 – 59,934,000
Between 2004 and 2012 there are 5 million fewer votes for the Republican candidate.
Obama lost 10,000,000 votes from 2008 and he still won. Amazing drop in voters…but he still won! Amazing.
Why are Republicans getting fewer votes each election?
Republicans do not appeal to the young (under 30), women, and minorities.
albill on November 7, 2012 at 12:00 PM
I posted this on Ace late last night:
Did everyone forget about the Mayan Calendar for Pete’s sake? It 2012. It’s the apocalypse, and Obama is one of the four horsemen. Seriously, though, I’ve been thinking about this for some time now. For those of you not spiritually or biblically thinking, I apologize, but Obama represents the spirit of the world right now. Every cultural context point in our society, from the media to entertainment to educational institutions reinforces it. Why do so many people just conform to the liberal assumptions about the world? Because it is so pervasive, and most people just want to conform. They think they are being so hip and cool, and individual, but they aren’t. They are just conforming to the spirit of the world. Someone up thread brought up a good point about Christian conservatives as they were once known no longer exist, because the mega churches have pretty much embraced the liberation theology and socialism. I know lots of Christians who voted for Obama. They hate abortion, but they love redistribution of wealth (caring for the poor and hungry) more. They don’t even realize they are being used as useful idiots by the Marxists. They think they are righting the wrongs of the past. And the more they move away from the traditional codes of behavior as encouraged by all the external cultural cues of media and entertainment, the more they accept. A case in point is the way homosexuality is treated. No longer is it an act, it is an identity. Not only do we accept it, but every show on TV has a homosexual character. It’s not enough to accept it, nor is it enough to embrace it, no, we must glorify it. This is the spirit of the world now. This is where we are. This is the world that elects such a Marxist posing as an empty suit. Because he is so cool. Because every cultural clue encourages it. Because people desire to conform to the present spirit of the world.
This is why reaching out to minorities and the youth and white women will not work. These things that we understand and know are rejected by the spirit of the world. I know we have lots of atheists here, but the truth is, this is God’s will. We are reaping the repercussons of being a perverse and lawless generation. And for my fellow Christians, I would just like to point out that all the Christians who thought or think they will not embrace the antiChrist, they need to look no further than what happened last night. There is no beter example of a person who embodies the spirit of the world, it is Obama and the Dems.
Queen0fCups on November 7, 2012 at 12:02 PM
“He actually earned less votes than McCain in 2008. Proof that demographics cannot be blamed.”
Gary Johnson took about 2% of the votes, those would be libertarian leaning folks who would have voted for the Republican and might have made a difference.
crosspatch on November 7, 2012 at 12:03 PM
Obama is what happens when celebrity and political correctness pick a President.
Couple that with the media in Obama’s pocket, and it’s amazing Romney got as close as he did.
Moesart on November 7, 2012 at 12:04 PM
We are not a center-right nation anymore. Probably haven’t been for a while, but the pundits keeps telling us that we are. I don’t blame the GOP or Romney or the campaign managers, anyone for this. We have to understand once and for all that we are up against a dangerously ignorant and easily-fooled citizenry produced largely by Marxist indoctrination in our education systems, which has, in turn, resulted in a treasonous, traitorous, left wing lapdog media. Our country is so far adrift from its original principles that I don’t see how we can correct the course at this point.
Urban Infidel on November 7, 2012 at 12:08 PM
Turn a blind eye to piracy. Watch what happens to the media.
Sekhmet on November 7, 2012 at 12:12 PM
True enough
There are now officially more takers than producers in this country.
HotAirian on November 7, 2012 at 12:13 PM
Obamamania fell by 16%. Republican support fell by 6% when it was already down 7%. Will Republicans support their next standard bearer if he isn’t exactly what they want?
Basilsbest on November 7, 2012 at 12:15 PM
It always drives me insane for conservatives to fall all over themselves telling everyone that we love LEGAL immigration. That we’re a country of immigrants. What a bunch of bullcrap.
The immigrants of today are not the immigrants of yesterday.
You will like this article in American Thinker calling LEGAL immigration a death by a thousand cuts. So true.
mrsmwp on November 7, 2012 at 12:39 PM
I agree that the socon issues have to go but that won’t find much traction here. Many will say you cannot be a ficon without being a socon – in the same breath they will say that Libertarianism is solely about free drugs and gay sex.
There are a lot of stupid people in the electorate who are not really liberal or conservative, they are just the product of our lousy education system. For these people ‘messaging’ is all – not rational arguments. And the Romney campaign was pretty awful at messaging.
The faux War on Wimmin stuff did work. There are a lot of stupid women out there who believed that Romney was a cult leader who wanted to control their uterus or something, ban abortion, ban contraception, and put them in chains. This gained real traction and won Barky votes.
The Gay H8r message was sold well. This should not even be an issue in a Federal election.
The Immigrant H8r message was also sold well with Romney’s help.
It’s time to junk the socon baggage and improve messaging. Barky’s messaging tone was predominantly fear which is supposed to be a turn off but if fear can be a powerful motivator too.
CorporatePiggy on November 7, 2012 at 12:47 PM
Yes the electorate has shifted.
Half the country thinks they can live comfortably out of their neighbor’s pocket and tell us how to live (light bulbs, heathcare, showerheads, food…nothing in our lives is our own decision any more).
What happended to the right to pursue happiness? How can I pursue happiness if my neighbhors think I supposed to work for them – and live how they think I should live?
LilyBart on November 7, 2012 at 1:01 PM
By all means, keep up this type of thinking, that blacks — regardless of socio-economic status — are “moochers and looters,” that hispanics are illegal moochers and looters, that young people, police officers, firefighters and teachers are moochers and looters, that immigrants — even legal immigrants — are, you guessed it, moochers and looters, that women who use contraception are sluts and whores, that gays — even long-time monogamous gay couples who are raising children together — are nothing but filthy “sodomites.” Soon, the Republican Party will be pure again and we all can get to bed even earlier on election night.
cam2 on November 7, 2012 at 1:02 PM
Here’s one of the stupid ones.
An example of how messaging tailored to idiots shapes their views of the right.
CorporatePiggy on November 7, 2012 at 1:13 PM
Turning the GOP into the “democrat-lite” party is not a solution that’s going to save the nation.
Rebar on November 7, 2012 at 1:15 PM
According to Dick Morris (yeah not the best source today):
The drop in Obama’s numbers has to be the independents who he completely lost. Anecdotally, I know many of them in my area of New Jersey and none of them were minorities or under the age of 30.
You could be right though. This is just my opinion from what I see around me. These people are so excited to vote for Obama but they have no idea why.
VinceOfDoom on November 7, 2012 at 1:31 PM
Why do people keep assuming Libertarians would have voted Republican? Most of them care more about slaughtering their unborn offspring and gay marriage than sound fiscal policy.
Darth Executor on November 7, 2012 at 1:41 PM
It has definitely shifted..I’m becoming a stranger in a strange land..
Dire Straits on November 7, 2012 at 1:46 PM
Something strange is going on for sure.
CPiggy is thinking about buying more gold.
DESPITE the fact that Levin and Hannity are paid to tell us to buy gold.
Watch gold sales continue to rise, firearms and munitions will continue their inexorable climb in sales, and interest in the preparedness concept will continue to up-tick. I think the fact that JJ Abrams produced a show on TV recently called R-word is an example of synchronicity.
Electing the Mormon was hardly the solution to the world’s ills and may well have just been a delaying tactic. But the alternative is…well you’ve had a 4 year preview.
CorporatePiggy on November 7, 2012 at 1:51 PM
Through Obama’s first term, I despised the people who said let it all burn.
Now I’ve joined them.
There’s no way out of this until after we’ve hit rock bottom.
ElectricPhase on November 7, 2012 at 1:51 PM
I agree I don’t have any idea how to advance. Obama basically won by supporting abortion (the war on women silliness) and supporting gay marriage. A large portion of the GOP is stridently anti-abortion and anti-gay marriage. I think they could live with the GOP dropping its gay marriage stance, but they aren’t going to accept much change in the GOP’s abortion stance. I wonder if we shouldn’t let Obama get much of his way on the economy for the next four years, so the resulting economic disaster will be his fault. We then increase oil drilling and free the economy from some regulation and get credit for economic good times.
thuja on November 7, 2012 at 1:55 PM
The problem with people saying let it burn and we’ll get some kind of revenge is that, as I have said before, revenge is a poison you create for others and consume yourself.
Still, I like the optimism. That is American. Act 2 of the Obamination will not be but hey neither was Act 1.
CorporatePiggy on November 7, 2012 at 2:01 PM
Evolution sucks if you are the species facing extinction. The desire to live free instead of getting free stuff from the government is a rare quality. It has been inculcated in generation after generation of immigrants. It has been undermined by welfare and mass immigration without expectation of assimilation. It is dying a steady death. We are a minority in America now. Most people would rather be dependent than be free.
Ted Torgerson on November 7, 2012 at 2:18 PM
And then you think we will rise again??? No..then the US is either the new Mexico or the new Somalia or….perhaps militarily conquered.
Sound crazy? Bet you didn’t think this would happen either.
michaelthomas on November 7, 2012 at 2:18 PM
This. He’s the political equivalent of Kim Kardashian.
jix on November 7, 2012 at 2:20 PM
This morning I told my employees the only silver lining I can find is that we will hit rock bottom much faster, take our medicine, and begin to heal. I believe electing Romney would have been a slow descent to rock bottom, whereas Obama has us on the bullet train to rock bottom.
txsurveyor on November 7, 2012 at 2:31 PM
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