The brutal truth: The electorate has shifted
That has tough implications for the Republican Party and the conservative movement. Since George W. Bush it has operated on the presumption that needs only to rev up its base voters to win an election. This had the happy coincidence of also meaning that the way to win an election was to be solidly conservative. The 2012 election suggests that is no longer enough.
It doesn’t follow from this though that the way for the Republican Party to win again is reject conservatism. That would alienate the voters it does have in the speculative hopes of replacing them with others. You don’t build coalitions by ejecting existing components. The way to win is to make conservatism a more appealing idea and to realize that coalitions are necessary. The movement needs to think hard about how it is going to expand its base.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Comment pages: 1 2 Next »
Bishop?
affenhauer on November 7, 2012 at 10:58 AM
First of all, has the electorate shifted? Last I checked 13 million people who voted in 2008 didn’t vote in 2012. Some of those (at least 3 million) were potential Romney voters. I have to imagine some of the 10 million votes Obama lost this time around were potential Romney voters as well. The real question is why they didn’t show up.
Aside from that, I think our last opportunity to turn this around before all out tyranny is when the inevitable collapse comes. Will that be enough to finally wake people up?
Kronos on November 7, 2012 at 10:59 AM
Jesus…not this sh!t again.
No you win by letting the country suffer for it’s childish decisions then step in as the adult to fix the problem. Until that happens the flaccid GOP can do nothing to gain ground except hand out free sh1t faster than the DNC.
End of story.
ClassicCon on November 7, 2012 at 11:02 AM
Nope. As always, it’ll give ‘em an excuse to start the Tyranny. The capacity to correct will be bred out of the populace at large (let’s be frank: it already is)
BritCarGuy on November 7, 2012 at 11:02 AM
I truly believe this is just because of Obama. The man is treated like a celebrity by so many young people and minorities. I know people who know nothing about politics but they can’t wait to cast their vote for The One. He’s just “so cool”.
This isn’t a permanent electoral shift. It’s just the American Idol presidency. I doubt the Democrats will be able to produce someone so idolized again.
VinceOfDoom on November 7, 2012 at 11:02 AM
If by “expand its base” he means “attract more whites,” I agree.
Ostrich Egg on November 7, 2012 at 11:03 AM
And which way will they shift when real unemployment reaches 20% and Obama’s stash dwindles?
salem on November 7, 2012 at 11:04 AM
HAHAHA… EXACTLY!
this article is a joke. Mitt lost the base, pure and simple. He was a RINO mormon. End of STORY.
johnnyboy on November 7, 2012 at 11:06 AM
The electorate hasn’t shifted, Democrats have built up parties in states where they didn’t use to have them.
Karl Rove advocated 50 + 1 to win. That doesn’t build a wide network.
We need to recruit good candidates, keep the winning incumbents, and toss out ineffective county and state leaders.
amazingmets on November 7, 2012 at 11:07 AM
From Peter Hitchens:
I was in Washington DC the night of the election….
As I walked, I crossed another of Washington’s secret frontiers. There had been a few white people blowing car horns and shouting, as the result became clear. But among the Mexicans, Salvadorans and the other Third World nationalities, there was something like ecstasy.
They grasped the real significance of this moment. They knew it meant that America had finally switched sides in a global cultural war. Forget the Cold War, or even the Iraq War. The United States, having for the most part a deeply conservative people, had until now just about stood out against many of the mistakes which have ruined so much of the rest of the world.
Suspicious of welfare addiction, feeble justice and high taxes, totally committed to preserving its own national sovereignty, unabashedly Christian in a world part secular and part Muslim, suspicious of the Great Global Warming panic, it was unique.
These strengths had been fading for some time, mainly due to poorly controlled mass immigration and to the march of political correctness. They had also been weakened by the failure of America’s conservative party—the Republicans—to fight on the cultural and moral fronts.
They preferred to posture on the world stage. Scared of confronting Left-wing teachers and sexual revolutionaries at home, they could order soldiers to be brave on their behalf in far-off deserts. And now the U.S., like Britain before it, has begun the long slow descent into the Third World. How sad. Where now is our last best hope on Earth?
TxAnn56 on November 7, 2012 at 11:07 AM
Brutal truth — When stocks to up or go down your broker still gets paid. When we win or lose political commentators get paid to write insightful columns about why.
29Victor on November 7, 2012 at 11:07 AM
Agreed. The problem Romney faced is that while he did run as the adult in the room offering to fix the problem, the full impact of Obama’s policies hadn’t been felt yet. That won’t be the case in 2014 and 2016. Let the nation suffer the consequences of 51% of the electorate acting stupidly and then hang those results around the neck of whomever the Dems offer up in 2016.
Doughboy on November 7, 2012 at 11:07 AM
This isn’t a shift and this isn’t an American idol presidency. This is corruption blatant corruption.
bgibbs1000 on November 7, 2012 at 11:08 AM
Total BS. Making excuses is the elite GOP stock-in-trade.
Show me one place where the GOP admitted that it needed the tea party. Just one.
[crickets]
Yeah, I thought so.
On the way home from a victory party last night, my wife was going on about stolen elections. I told her to hold off until we got the numbers.
The numbers tell the truth – Romney didn’t get as many votes as McCain. Figuring out why and fixing it is the path to redemption. Throwing up impossible conundrums is the way to dispirited failure.
Choose.
platypus on November 7, 2012 at 11:08 AM
The only way to regain America, is for the red states to leave the union, and let the blue states have their progressive utopia.
Four more years of 0bama, there will be nothing left for conservatives to fix, the looters are just too many and too well organized. We either leave, or acquiesce to the Europeanization of America.
Rebar on November 7, 2012 at 11:09 AM
Federalism people, that’s the answer to Leviathan.
The 10th Amendment hasn’t been repealed. All we need is strong 10th Amendment conservatives at all levels of state governments. Officials willing to seize back state powers long ago usurped by the federal government.
When the states ratified the Constitution they didn’t agree to be subservient to the federal government.
If you really want to get rid of Obamacare and rein in the federal government then look to your state governments.
Charlemagne on November 7, 2012 at 11:10 AM
Won’t work. All that will do is make the idiots want even more government to fix problems created by more government. This will only get fixed when financial collapse happens or civil war or both.
bgibbs1000 on November 7, 2012 at 11:10 AM
Yes, but the real problem is with branding. You say Republican and people stop listening. It doesn’t matter what you say Republicans are evil and must be destroyed. I’m beginning to believe it myself. Maybe the answer isn’t getting people to vote Republican, maybe the answer is getting people to vote for [enter name of non affiliated candidate here] in every election so the the label “Republican” won’t turn off the voters.
Browncoatone on November 7, 2012 at 11:11 AM
BTW, Obama is now hinting at a carbon tax to close the deficit. It begins. If you voted for this clown, don’t ever admit that to my face.
Doughboy on November 7, 2012 at 11:12 AM
Excellent.
Ostrich Egg on November 7, 2012 at 11:12 AM
I could live with that. Matter of fact I would welcome it.
bgibbs1000 on November 7, 2012 at 11:12 AM
Yes, the donks have never held the WH for more than 4 years before!!!1!!!1
Blake on November 7, 2012 at 11:13 AM
dick morris is emailing his “why I was wrong” letter now.
the question is, does anyone care to read it?
johnnyboy on November 7, 2012 at 11:14 AM
True.
Our stiff patrician was no match against Elvis. Oh wait, that was ’92. ’92 was yet another race where we got trounced by a celebrity politician with the gift of gab!
Sigh, charisma counts.
Luckily for us we have Marco Rubio and a sane member of the Paul family for our ticket in ’16.
Punchenko on November 7, 2012 at 11:15 AM
I’ve got a better idea. The House GOP should pass EVERYTHING Obama wants. Stop being the bogeyman for Obama to blame everything on. Pass the tax hike for the rich. Show the American people how subtracting 80 billion from 1 trillion does jack. Let Obama come up with the other 920 billion in deficit spending. Show Americans what happens when we get downgraded twice in 4 years. Show them what happens as paying the interest off on the debt takes up more and more of the budget. Show Americans how much power you lose going green and shutting down coal plants. Show Americans the price of gas when you refuse to let oil drilling expand. Let him burn this country to the ground. Make it so painful for every voter that if they even think about voting democrats they shudder. Let Obama destroy the democrat party.
Zaggs on November 7, 2012 at 11:16 AM
Obama’s ’12 votes are virtually identical to Kerry votes in ’04. That’s not a shift in the electorate, that’s a comedown from ill-advised exuberance to pulling the lever for the blue guy against the red guy all over again.
Red votes were down 5% from ’08, which were down 5% from ’04. Republicans can’t sink back to the old 50m levels and win against Democrats if they retain the same 59m voter base from recent cycles, but it looks like we might be there by the end of the decade.
We absolutely can’t win without several east-central and north-central states; we likely can’t win with fewer than 60m votes; we probably can’t win without peeling off a significant number of Democrat voters.
Those are the key problems we have to address, or else we might as well set up shop in Galt Gulch and call it done and it’ll be another New Deal era for another generation, just like the Obamaites want it.
The Schaef on November 7, 2012 at 11:20 AM
Ugh, this is never going to end.
The problem with this election is how we survive our countrymen’s (well, more largely our countrywomen’s) shallow understanding of economics and capacity to be distracted.
The problem is not the electoral future. There is no realignment. 2014 will be a walk. 2016 should be a free-throw. In case you hadn’t noticed, socialism still doesn’t work. But hard as it is to say for people who pay constant attention, Obamamania does. He’s an icon. His intellectual shallowness does not penetrate the teleprompter. And the economy is simply not bad enough yet to sink a rock star who came blame his predecessor. People will need to feel the consequences.
It wouldn’t take much. Florida was a tie, Ohio was within 2, Virginia within 3. One more state does it.
The problem is not the future. The problem is surviving the present, and in making sure that the decline is not too deeply ingrained to reverse once our fellow Americans who don’t follow politics blogs and have a high opinion of Obama’s sexiness actually feel the effects of his policies, and in a time frame where Bush-blaming becomes increasingly tenuous.
HitNRun on November 7, 2012 at 11:21 AM
YES!…the answer is clicking for some of you now. That is the only political solution I have been talking about. I would go a step further and hand out even more free stuff by taxing the everliving HELL out of the Google’s and Apple’s since they love their neocommunists so much. Sorry ultra-rich…I have defended you guys as long as I can, but this is going to hurt either way.
Consider it a controlled burn of the country…it is the only way.
ClassicCon on November 7, 2012 at 11:24 AM
I wouldn’t say everything, just the things that are easy to roll back like tax hikes and drilling bans. And I wouldn’t say the GOP should do this so much as 30 or so of them crossing the aisle.
But yeah. It’s time to stop protecting the public from their choices. I can tell you that from the Phila collar counties that cries about socialism are falling on deaf ears because people are protected from the results. They know the economy is bad, but they still blame the guy from Texas. Obama is teh hot.
HitNRun on November 7, 2012 at 11:25 AM
Been saying this for years. I’m a relatively young person. Huge swaths of my peers are relatively open to the notions of limited government and fiscal conservatism. But they absolutely will never vote Republicans because of the stupid culture war garbage. The party has to knock it off with the gays/immigrants/abortion lunacy if it wants to thrive or even survive.
Chew on this: tons of people I know voted enthusiastically for a guy who carried out extrajudicial assassinations of American citizens without a hint of due process, almost entirely because he was on “their” side of the issues above. That’s how powerful they are.
The GOP needs someone to preach fiscal conservatism and civil liberties while jettisoning this culture war nonsense. Can you imagine if instead of talking abortion or gay marriage or birth control, Romney had said “It’s unconscionable to carry out the killing of an American citizen in secrecy without any form of due process or oversight. That will never happen in my administration.” Or how about “The TSA is a failed agency that has cost taxpayers billions that we do not have and has not made us safer. Its policies humiliate and degrade innocent people to no discernible benefit. It has never caught a single terrorist, and I will shut it down my first day in office.”
He wins by 5%, easily.
CTD on November 7, 2012 at 11:25 AM
Some of you get it, some of you don’t.
Browncoate and Bgibbs do.
You can flatline this economy, and you’re still talking about a voting base for Obama that has nothing.
Negative + Negative = negative
They won’t care.
You have to crack the two big fronts – media and education
College Freshman now won’t feel a damn thing for four years.
Single people, of any stripe, only have themselves to look after. Maybe a kid, but most times, it’s a part-time job.
The coalition as we know does not play big enough to carry states over the line for an electoral win.
budfox on November 7, 2012 at 11:26 AM
Tell me when in history this has happened.
Russia at the beginning of the 20th century? Germany in the 30s?
People don’t choose responsibility when the money runs out. They look for a scapegoat to guillotine. We’re not closer to victory just because the country is going down the toilet.
Caiwyn on November 7, 2012 at 11:28 AM
Yes, we’ll see if the rest of the world really likes it if America turns into a sluggish, heavily armed Brazil.
Say, I went in drag as Carmen Miranda to a Halloween party last week. Just getting with the program, people.
Seth Halpern on November 7, 2012 at 11:28 AM
I agree. Give Obama everything he wants.
darwin on November 7, 2012 at 11:28 AM
I agree 100%. Unfortunately, I live in Maryland aka the People’s Republic. Well, at least for now I do. Any suggestions where I could move to?
NavyMustang on November 7, 2012 at 11:29 AM
1980. And roughly concurrently with Thatcher, perestroika, etc.
As hard as it is to admit for us, who have been drawing the Carter parallels in our own echo chamber, the economy is simply not bad enough. Not to sink a rock idol.
HitNRun on November 7, 2012 at 11:30 AM
The problem is uncontrolled mass LEGAL immigration from countries that don’t give a rat’s a$$ about this country. We’re letting in 1 million democratic voters every year and ergo the chain migration problem because they bring granny and every cousin with them. This started with the 1965 Immigration Act compliments of Ted Kennedy. It’s just caught up with us within the last 10 years. That is the problem. And there is no turning back because Dems want the votes (and obviously get them) and Reps want the cheap labor.
TxAnn56 on November 7, 2012 at 11:30 AM
The brutal truth is that nearly everyone is on welfare and they vote for more of it.
Axion on November 7, 2012 at 11:34 AM
I’m coming around to this way of thinking.
Obama’s already going to be able to turn the SCOTUS liberal for the next 20 years. ObamaCare is going to be permanent. And all the rest of it. We can’t really stop them from pushing forward – at most the GOP House can slow them down. Better to get it over with to get to the recovery sooner.
One thing that makes me hesitant is that liberals control most of the media and education etc and there is a large chance that Democrats will never get the blame for things going down in flames – Boooosh, Boehner, whoever will still get blamed.
gwelf on November 7, 2012 at 11:35 AM
Pretty much.
roy_batty on November 7, 2012 at 11:42 AM
Remember, they can’t run Obama again.
As hard as it is to swallow, he’s well-regarded in this country. And that probably accounted for the decisive winning margin. From my Facebook feed in the PA swing counties, I can tell you it’s full of rape links, ridiculous scare posts, and binders full of women. These are not people who are hungry for liberal policies, though they’re going to get them. They’re people who like Obama because he’s obviously a really smart and cool guy.
Everyone, liberal and conservative, has made a note in the last five years that Obama would be a joke if he was white. He wouldn’t have come close in Iowa. He would be Howard Dean. That’s what they have to look forward to next time.
The future is bright. As hard as it is to believe, there is significant ambiguity in this country as to why the economy is bad. That ends today. The problem is surviving the present. I wish all of us well in that.
HitNRun on November 7, 2012 at 11:42 AM
@gwelf: The thing is, once you acculturate generations of people to that sort of misery (perhaps tolerating some kind of underground economy as a safety valve) and there is no longer any recognizable United States of America to serve as a counter example, how do you dig your way out?
Seth Halpern on November 7, 2012 at 11:44 AM
Had Obama won by a larger margin than last time, I would believe the electorate had shifted. He didn’t. And his most destructive policies are not scheduled to come into play until the second term. Wait until people get a load of their tax returns in 2014.
Obama lost considerable support. A 2% difference in voting would have the press saying the “electorate has shifted” in the opposite direction.
crosspatch on November 7, 2012 at 11:45 AM
This.
The progressive know very well they’re going to run out of money. It’s part of their plan, and they have a plan for when it happens.
We aren’t going to like what that plan is, and we have no plan to save us from it.
Rebar on November 7, 2012 at 11:46 AM
If it was all about voting for the “cool” Obama, then why the loss of true conservatives like Mia Love and Allen West? West gets dumped for that LUNATIC Greyson?! Seriously?? We can’t make excuses by trying to convince ourselves that we lost because Romney was a Mormon, or because Obama is just too appealing, or even due to massive fraud…we have to face the problem HEAD ON…the appeal of free stuff is just too strong for all the stupid, lazy people in this country. Not facing this reality is extremely dangerous, and will only ensure that our country will have NO hope of ever becoming a place where we can live in freedom.
ellifint on November 7, 2012 at 11:47 AM
Thats why you vote yes on Obama. What can they blame them for? They just said “We believed in the president.”. House GOP says yes, can’t blame them.
I’m personally waiting for the crying from Pennsylvania when all those coal plants shut down and people complain about being out of a job. I’ll give them some Rorschach “Save us!”… and I’ll look down and whisper “No.”. I’ll laugh and tell them they voted for Obama, they got Obama. That they and the medicare seniors who run afoul of IPAB, the people who lose jobs to amnesty illegals, that they all reap what they have sown.
Zaggs on November 7, 2012 at 11:48 AM
Obama won re-election with ten million votes less than he got in 2008.
If the vote tally for 2012 is valid, that means Romney lost not because of changing racial demographics, but because he failed to bring out his own demographic(Republicans). He actually earned less votes than McCain in 2008. Proof that demographics cannot be blamed.
It’s a stupid lie to say this election was unwinnable due to demographics or anything else. This was the biggest gimmee in the history of electoral politics and the Repubics blew it.
The GOP should not survive this defeat. To paraphrase the loudmouth backstabber, Chris Chirstie:
Republicans would have a lot of nerve to even ask us to vote for them again.
sartana on November 7, 2012 at 11:50 AM
That is a risk, sure. But the most definite way to sell your point of view is to the make the alternative so painful that they have to pick your way. If a starving persons choices are an easy walk for fast food, or a walk across broken glass for subway, they’ll pick the fast food.
Zaggs on November 7, 2012 at 11:51 AM
THIS is very important. especially the msm. i think that’s a big reason why obama did as well as he did.
i read somewhere that west and love both lost by very small margins… recount?
PLEASE!!!Sachiko on November 7, 2012 at 11:52 AM
Time to leave the plantation of the Ayatollahs in the GOP there Conservatives!
Move Libertarian!
You’ve nothing to lose since the GOP isn’t winning any elections anyway!
HondaV65 on November 7, 2012 at 11:53 AM
Comment pages: 1 2 Next »