Obama’s victory: Following the Karl Rove blueprint
As he faced a tough reelection fight with a struggling economy and a disillusioned electorate, however, this same strategy wouldn’t work a second time. So instead, he used the Rove playbook. Obama set out to destroy his opponent, attacking Mitt Romney’s laudable private sector career and allowing his allies to suggest Romney was a felon and was responsible for a man’s wife dying of cancer. Swift-boating was replaced with Swift-Baining. And then there were the wedge issues. Obama suddenly declared he supported gay marriage, with no tangible change in policy, to woo disillusioned young voters. He created a “War on Women” narrative, equating Republican opposition to forcing religious institutions to purchase products that violate their religious principles with an attempt to ban birth control. Though Obama did nothing on immigration reform during his first term as he promised, in the summer, he did issue an executive order on immigration aimed at firming up the Hispanic vote.
It worked. Though Obama lost among independent voters by 5 points, according to exit polls, he did rally his base, and the electorate was 6 points more Democratic than it was Republican. He carried women and young voters by wide margins and blew away Romney among Hispanics, 71 percent to 27 percent.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Yup.
When I saw the initial exit-polling, I said to myself, “This looks like 2004 in reverse.” And indeed it is. The incumbent president wins re-election and pads his Senate majority. And he does it by turning out his base.
One can hope that we turn 2014 into another 2006, but given the Senate candidate-picking track record we’ve had, I’m just about ready to beg the NRSC to start interfering in primaries again.
KingGold on November 7, 2012 at 3:09 PM
who wants more birther jokes? hummm?
nathor on November 7, 2012 at 3:10 PM
If we can’t show Hispanics the truth, that their values and interests are are much better embodied by the right than the left, these “strategies” will cease to be relevant.
WeekendAtBernankes on November 7, 2012 at 3:11 PM
they will interfere and win this time because the base will be demotivated to fight them.
nathor on November 7, 2012 at 3:13 PM
May they both go to Hades, along with all the trolls. May they burn, yelling incessantly, for a long time.
Schadenfreude on November 7, 2012 at 3:15 PM
I believe I saw somewhere that republican registration is actually one point higher than democrat registration (that might be just here in Ohio). If that’s true, this might be a similar election to 2004, the winner is whoever turns out their base better.
If those registration numbers are true that would mean that we have the numbers to beat them (especially when winning independents by 5%) but those people just didn’t vote.
I’d love to believe that because it means we can win with a better/more conservative/less nicey-nice candidate.
Kronos on November 7, 2012 at 3:15 PM
Decency lost.
Thuggery won.
Schadenfreude on November 7, 2012 at 3:20 PM
As well they should be. Whenever we’ve “won,” we’ve nominated unelectable buffoons. O’Donnell, Angle, Mourdock, Buck, and Akin make five. Five. With God knows how many other races those folks’ asinine comments cost us. That might very well have been a Senate majority.
And don’t even start about Fiorina, Rossi, Thompson, and the like. They lost, yes, but they didn’t drag anyone else down with them.
Cruz and Rubio were the exceptions, not the rule.
KingGold on November 7, 2012 at 3:22 PM
It’s definitely worth a shot.
alwaysfiredup on November 7, 2012 at 3:22 PM
Rove, thanks for Bush and Obama…jerk.
Oil Can on November 7, 2012 at 3:23 PM
This was not Obama energizing his base as much as Romney not being able to energize anyone but core Republicans. Romney allowed the media to define him rather than go around them.
Romeny never got dirty, never capalitized on Obama mistakes and he lost.
LincolntheHun on November 7, 2012 at 3:25 PM
KingGold on November 7, 2012 at 3:22 PM
You realize that we lost our base and won independents based on this article. I would say that it was the candidates fault that the base didn’t come out. If independents didn’t go Republican then you could fault the idiotic candidates with tarring everyone but the fact that we won independents and not the base shows that it was the candidates fault.
melle1228 on November 7, 2012 at 3:27 PM
This +1,000,000
melle1228 on November 7, 2012 at 3:27 PM
We need our own ruthless, heartless guy. Ideas?
faraway on November 7, 2012 at 3:35 PM
The highlight of my night was watching Tokyo Rove MELT DOWN on Fox News. “Denial” – no it’s not a river in Egypt … it’s what was swimming around in that 2-cell brain of Roves.
He went out on a smug limb very early in the afternoon and refused to get off it until it was cut from under him.
Can we finally get rid of this bloviating ass now that he’s thouroughly discredited? How many millions of dollars did he and American Crossroads blow on Snottie Brown in Mass? And Snottie gets his ass handed to him by a fake Indian! LMFAO!!
A BIG PART OF THE REASON THE GOP LOST IS BECAUSE IT IS STILL CONTROLLED BY THE ESTABLISHMENT AYATOLLAHS. FIRE THEM ALL!! INCLUDING ROVE!!
People are saying the nation “changed” last night. Nope – it’s the same nation we had in 2010 that produced HISTORIC TEA PARTY VICTORIES. The problem was – the GOP Ayatollahs have given nothing back to the country in return for those victories but COMPROMISE. Get a GOP that shows balls and ACTUALLY TAKES ON THE PRESIDENT – and you’ll see the enthusiasm return.
But you gotta fire these Ayatollahs first.
HondaV65 on November 7, 2012 at 3:39 PM
“The base” ain’t what it used to be. Hate to break it to you, but this isn’t 2004 and we can’t win a base-turnout election. Romney won independents, yes, which is what our losing Senate candidates did not do.
We need far better statewide candidates.
KingGold on November 7, 2012 at 3:39 PM
I said often that silky gloves can’t take out this thug. Needed him in this round.
I don’t care about the next round. My dedication is done.
Starving the beast and Schadenfreude at a land 52%, and growing, of fools is all I live for.
Schadenfreude on November 7, 2012 at 3:41 PM
An OfficerA Thug and a GentlemanSchadenfreude on November 7, 2012 at 3:42 PM
Nobody plays HARDBALL like Rick Perry in Texas did but hey – you guys didn’t like his flirting with illegals even though he’s figured out how to remain in office with hispanics voting for him while the rest of the national GOP hasn’t.
He also had a proven track record of 10 plus years of a booming TX economy – but hey, you know – his immigration stance kind of sucked I guess (even though it was the same as Willard’s in reality).
And – hey, he wasn’t much of a debater – but I think he could have held his own with Obama’s performances this time around.
Thats okay man – you guys did all you could do. You went out … and out of 350 million people you found the ONLY other guy with a socialist healthcare system named after him – and you nominated him!
I’m shocked it didn’t work out for you guys.
/S
HondaV65 on November 7, 2012 at 3:44 PM
I don’t argue with you. I think Akin is a dummy. Anyone with the prolife position should know exactly how to deal with the media on those gotcha questions, but I don’t think throwing away the socon vote which a lot of people are espousing today is the way to go.
melle1228 on November 7, 2012 at 3:44 PM
Move to a southern state – make one even more redder than it is. The next Revoluti0n will begin down here when states start telling Uncle Sam … “Aw hell no!!”
HondaV65 on November 7, 2012 at 3:46 PM
And just who is proposing to throw away socons? I can name fifty or sixty politicians off the top of my head who are staunchly pro-life and aren’t utter morons about it. Akin and Mourdock are not among them.
This is not about social conservatism, this is about bad candidates.
KingGold on November 7, 2012 at 3:49 PM
Yeppers loving my transplant state of Tennessee where we took supermajorities in both houses yesterday!
melle1228 on November 7, 2012 at 3:49 PM
Mr Willard – your analysis this season has been a little … ahem … OFF!
And that’s an understatement.
You win with the base. The base didn’t show up last night because the Ayatollahs in the GOP have shat upon them ever since the Tea Party won historic elections in 2010.
Obama shat upon the independents and wrote off whole sloths of white voters and still won – and easily so. You’re man won significant numbers of indies – and he lost. So who had the better strategy.
If your base isn’t large enough to win – expand the base. Might start with some comprehensive immigration reform and getting the fu*k out of social issues – but that’s just my suggestion.
HondaV65 on November 7, 2012 at 3:50 PM
You, of all people, are for amnesty? Knock me over with a feather.
KingGold on November 7, 2012 at 3:51 PM
Enclave conservatives – come south – strength in numbers. The revoluti0n begins here.
HondaV65 on November 7, 2012 at 3:51 PM
Several people on the Minnesota is red board. And I agree we were stuck with a bunch of bad candidates, but I also think that we have a very inept party when it comes to dealing with the media. I cannot believe how many people thought that Romney was going to take away their tampons. Sorry Madcon, but Americans are dummies.
melle1228 on November 7, 2012 at 3:52 PM
Yeppers – I’ve stated it many times. Hard working Mexicans who are already here should go right to the front of the line.
I met many of them when rebuilding my house after Katrina. I value them MORE than a native born American collecting welfare.
HondaV65 on November 7, 2012 at 3:53 PM
The exit polling disagree with you. The social issues hurt you last night – badly.
HondaV65 on November 7, 2012 at 3:54 PM
They weren’t bad candidates.
Sheesh – you guys have been begging for “real people” to run for office. Well, quit crying – “real people” make mistakes and sometimes say dumb things.
You want polished? Vote for Mitch McConnell – he’ll never slip up or say anything wrong.
Then again – he’ll never do a damn thing for you in office either will he?
HondaV65 on November 7, 2012 at 3:56 PM
Not getting the desire to have Karl Rove burn in hell. He raises tons of money, works hard, takes nothing for it. Huge help in 2010 tsunami. If others can do better, fine, let them form PACs and do it. It’s not his fault Americans have been conned by a Con Man.
Buy Danish on November 7, 2012 at 3:58 PM
“Karl, you magnificent Bastard. I READ YOUR BOOK!!!”
-ObamaAxelRahm
portlandon on November 7, 2012 at 4:00 PM
Yes, and that wouldn’t have mattered if the morons hadn’t drawn such a focus to it and made us all look like extremists.
KingGold on November 7, 2012 at 4:04 PM
You mean Morons like Paul Ryan and Willard? Who made contraception an issue by deciding to stand with the Catholic church – who practically authored ObamaCare?
Those morons?
HondaV65 on November 7, 2012 at 4:08 PM
We are getting what we deserve because fewer people on our side decided to show up to vote than they did for McCain. I guess it wasn’t worth it for them? I’d love to talk with these people.
Obama will get amnesty done in 2013. That locks in 10 million new voters that will go 85%+ for Dems. We aren’t going to overcome that.
African-Americans might not turn out for Hillary in 2016, and more than likely will not turn out in 2014 for the other races. But amnesty will easily make up those numbers.
Our schools continue to churn out kids who believe govt goodies are expected. The Dems will continue to say that Republicans want to take away student loans and student aids because that is what motivates the young voters. It worked well here, so they will rinse and repeat every election, and the halls of academia will amplify it for them. Before long they will be promising 100% free college degrees if it weren’t for those nasty Republicans.
Single woman will continue to be thought of as sexual machines who only care about reproductive rights. Those votes will always be in the bank for the Dems, since free pills and free abortions are the new hotness.
So how do we reach these constituencies? I don’t see how. We certainly can’t and stick with our values. The ideas stated above are now ingrained in the the psyche of these Americans, they will always be expected.
The reality is that the whole thing has to crash in order to correct. I think the House needs to stand their ground and let us go over the fiscal cliff, and then fight amnesty. Don’t think for a second that giving in on amnesty will make Hispanics vote for Republicans. The Dems will always threaten them that Repubs want to take it away.
We have nothing to complain if we can’t motivate our base to show up. If you know anyone who was a McCain voter that sat this one out, be sure to thank them for what is about to happen and remind them after it happens.
I say let the Dems own the destruction they will produce. The House needs to refuse the tax hikes say they need to avoid the fiscal cliff. They can’t give in. Fight amnesty. You won’t win any friends by passing it. Passing it only ensures the GOP demise. Could we lose the House in 2014? Sure, but then the Dems own everything that happens before 2016.
goflyers on November 7, 2012 at 4:10 PM
Well, all the donors who gave to American Crossroads this time around would have been been better off saving that money to pay the higher taxes now coming their way.
They could have burned it a big martini party and it would have been more bang for the buck than what Tokyo Rove did with it.
Still LMFAO he gave millions to Snottie Brown and a weak assed fake indian just killed that dude! LMFAO!!
HondaV65 on November 7, 2012 at 4:10 PM
Talk to me – however – I actually did show up – and voted for Obama.
I voted for the greater of two evils because voting for the lesser of two evils has only gotten me more socialism – and much of it delivered upon me by the very people I used to vote for – the GOP.
In 2010 – I gave over $3,000 to Republican candidates. For all that money – I haven’t received much return on investment from the GOP Ayatollahs who have acted as emaciated eunuchs on Capitol Hill.
They’ll not get another vote from me until they fire the Aytollahs in charge of that party.
My vote was meant to do one thing – to hasten the death of the Ayatollahs in the GOP. The Obama win will do that. Boehner, McConnell – they have little time left in charge because Mittens isn’t coming up that hill packing food and water and provisions for them.
They’ll starve now.
HondaV65 on November 7, 2012 at 4:14 PM
During the caucus/primary season Romney went from my second to last choice to the only choice. The reason I despised him during the primaries was the utterly ruthless way his surrogates and Super Pacs went after the opposition (my preferred choices). He could stand back and say it wasn’t him that was being mean. Once he wrapped up the nomination, it was like his allies went into sweetness and light mode. There was no attempt to hold Obama accountable for any lies and double speak. Romney became a nice guy, but one that let his opponent walk all over him. Yeah, I willingly voted for him, but it was because I had no other choice. If the same intensity had been there in the general, he might have done better.
banjohack on November 7, 2012 at 4:39 PM