Hey, I was wrong
I derided the media polls for their assumption of what did, in fact happen: That blacks, Latinos, and young people would show up in the same numbers as they had in 2008. I was wrong. They did.
But the more proximate cause of my error was that I did not take full account of the impact of hurricane Sandy and of Governor Chris Christie’s bipartisan march through New Jersey arm in arm with President Obama. Not to mention Christe’s fawning promotion of Obama’s presidential leadership.
It made all the difference.
A key element of Romney’s appeal, particularly after the first debate, was his ability to govern with Democrats in Massachusetts. Obama’s one-party strident approach, so much the opposite of what he pledged in his first national speech in 2004, had turned voters off. But by working seamlessly with an acerbic Republican Governor like Christie, Obama was able to blunt Romney’s advantage in this crucial area.
Blowback
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and oh BTW dick morris …. STFU ….
conservative tarheel on November 7, 2012 at 1:42 PM
This is one thing that I think Morris actually got right.
UltimateBob on November 7, 2012 at 1:43 PM
Dick:
You should never have another appearance on FOX News. If FOX is stupid enough to seek your “expert” analysis, they do not deserve to have the viewers they do. You were wrong about the Senate changing hands in 2010 and you completely missed this one. As a prognasticator, you are all washed up.
duggersd on November 7, 2012 at 1:49 PM
Good thing Hot Air got rid of Facebook comments one day before the election. No gloating from Kunta and Boy Bib. Did Hot air know something I didn’t??
envycat on November 7, 2012 at 1:54 PM
Bob Beckel, whoever that is, is right, corporatists like Romney who invented the Obamacare mandate are considered far right by the textbook. Some conservatives who’ve read Liberal Fascism are right to point out that people like Romney and Obama are very similar, try as they might to blame corporatism/fascism on the left, right-wing corporatists keep popping up from time to time proving that there is indeed a link between corporatism and “the right”.
It is only because of a billion dollars worth of propaganda that anybody would believe that Romney is a moderate. He’s not, he’s a corporate socialist who lead the effort to ban assault weapons and invented Obamacare.
FloatingRock on November 7, 2012 at 1:57 PM
Bob Beckel is basically saying, (even if he didn’t intend to), Republicans need to drop the far-right corporate socialism and return to their small-gov roots if they want to win again.
FloatingRock on November 7, 2012 at 2:01 PM
@FloatingRock
PREACH ON BROTHA!
seriously.. preach on. I am so sick of hearing the excuses… even from LIMBAUGH!
GGAAAAHH… its maddening. The base wasn’t enthused about a RINO mormon. It ain’t rocket science!
johnnyboy on November 7, 2012 at 2:08 PM
Thanks : )
FloatingRock on November 7, 2012 at 2:18 PM
Bah, the ABR’s are back. Gadzooks they’re like cockroaches.
Okay, I’m going to put this simply. Dick Morris is right in this case. Take a look at the RCP national average, it was a little off because of one outlier poll put out by the National Journal, but for the most part its pretty close to the outcome.
Well, Romney was ahead on the RCP average, until Hurricane Sandy.
I’ll even go one step further. It looks like the electorate last night was roughly, D+4. Well, D+4 was what Rassmussen was using until the last week of polling, and during the vast majority of the month he had Romney up anywhere from 1-5%. It wasn’t until the hurricane that Romney’s lead disappeared, and had Rass stuck with D+4, he would have about nailed the outcome.
The state polls, turned out to about be junk, no matter what Nate Silver said. Swing states are swing states precisely because their demographics about mimic the united states as a whole. It looks like Obama won most the swing states roughly around the same margin he won the popular vote. So it stands to reason that if Romney won the popular vote he would’ve won these states too.
So, yes, Dick Morris was right. Hurricane Sandy bolstered Obama’s campaign at EXACTLY the right moment. In fact I’ll go one step further and pinpoint his appearance with Chris Christie as the exact catalyst that cost Romney the election.
Had the election occurred two weeks sooner, or a week later Romney would have won. The polling data did show that bounce fading with time, it just hadn’t shrunk enough to overcome a D+4 electorate on election day.
WolvenOne on November 7, 2012 at 3:06 PM
When exactly did that happen?
roy_batty on November 7, 2012 at 3:23 PM
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