If Romney bags Ohio, he’s on 266 electoral college votes and has multiple opportunities to get the four more he needs. Colorado’s nine, New Hampshire’s four, Iowa’s six and Wisconsin’s 10 look most likely. It’s very hard to see Romney winning Florida, Virginia and Ohio and Obama keeping the White House.
Romney’s aides seem very bullish about Iowa – more so, even, than Colorado, where they say he took a hit in their internal polling with women independents after Obama’s handling of Hurricane Sandy. The latest Des Moines Register poll gives Obama a five-point advantage. But the Romney campaigns that the same poll put Obama up 17 in 2008 and he won the state by 10 points.
Privately, the Romney campaign has effectively conceded Nevada, which has six votes. ‘Nevada, we’ll probably fall short,’ said the Romney adviser. ‘That’s just tough.’ Romney hasn’t travelled there since October 24th, just as Obama has stayed away from North Carolina.
More remarkably, the adviser said that Minnesota, 10 votes, and Pennsylvania, 20 votes, were distinct possibilties. He even predicted a possible win in Minnesota.