Pennsylvania: It’s all down to turnout

I think what is going on here is that the pollsters are afraid to really call it like they see it on the surface for fear of undue influence but the answers lie in the internals of the polls.

For example, a CNN poll tonight says Romney/Obama are tied. But if you look inside at the data, they show Romney +22 with independent voters and getting 99% of the Republican vote. They way they reach a “tie” is to oversample Democrats by 11 points.

What this does is creates a poll that says “it’s a dead heat” in the headline and in the RCP average but inside the data says “we might see a Romney blowout here”. They are telling the campaigns what is really going on deep in the data inside the poll but are basically stepping away from saying that on the headline for fear of creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. If that CNN poll is correct in the internals and if the electorate is R+1 as Gallup expects, then it is a double-digit blowout for Romney on election night.

If the pollster were to come out and say “We think it is going to be Romney by 10+ and going away”, the other campaign is going to be very, very angry with them.

I believe this election is Romney by AT LEAST 6 points. That is if he gets 91% of the Republican vote like McCain did in 2008. If he gets 93% like Bush did in 2004, it is 10 points. Add two points of victory for every point over 88% that Romney wins. I say this because a poll with a resonable D/R/I had Romney +9 with independents but still tied. They way they did that is to say Romney was only going to get 88% of the Republican vote and that Obama’s support among Republicans has risen since 2008. I don’t believe that for a femtosecond. For every point above 88%, take a point away from Obama and give one to Romney for two points of margin for every point of crossover that goes away.

We are looking like we could very well have a blowout here.

crosspatch on November 4, 2012 at 10:39 PM