Jay Cost
The lowdown on Pennsylvania
Broad context: PA outside of Philly County has been trending red for 20 years. It has so far been checked by Dem turnout in Philly County, but Philly County’s population has been flat. So turnout increases in the county are from turnout machines/enthusiasm alone. At some point, that could breakdown. …
Obama MUST net 433k votes out of Philly County to win. In 2008 he netted 478k votes. In 2004 Kerry netted 410k votes. In 2000 Gore netted 350k votes.
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It can be done
rob verdi on November 3, 2012 at 8:55 AM
While it’s not a game changer, the part of the PA voter ID law on absentee ballots was not suspended.
And even at the polls, everyone will be asked for ID, although allowed to vote without one. (I think they want to get a feel for how many people actually don’t have any kind of ID.)
Wethal on November 3, 2012 at 9:00 AM
OT: I have seen no internet presence by either Libby Sternberg or Howard Portnoy since the storm. I hope they are okay.
Blake on November 3, 2012 at 9:03 AM
I may be Charlie Brown approaching the football that Lucy’s holding, but I really think this is the year PA goes red.
I really want this because it’s Chris Matthews’s home state. If PA goes red, it’s pretty much over for Obama. I want Matthews thinking about that for the next four years.
BuckeyeSam on November 3, 2012 at 9:04 AM
If… if… assume… maybe… then….
I need some Pepto Bismol :-S
Glenn Jericho on November 3, 2012 at 9:10 AM
Here’s a bit of math someone could do:
1. Take the general polling result among African Americans showing support for Obama dropping from 97% to 88%.
2. Apply it to the black voting population of Philadelphia county.
3. See numerically how much his vote count goes down.
Needed: black voting population of Philadelphia county and/or black votes in 2008.
Dextrous on November 3, 2012 at 9:17 AM
Perhaps the Green Room revamp had something to do with that?
Just a guess, but I don’t really know.
Difficultas_Est_Imperium on November 3, 2012 at 9:21 AM
They both posted regularly at other websites, fb, & twitter before the storm.
Blake on November 3, 2012 at 9:24 AM
Another thing about Pennsylvania. Do not get discouraged if for the first hours the votes far outnumber Romney. It’s always this way in PA. It has something to do with the way different counties cast their votes. The Democrat vote always always comes in strong at first… then as the evening goes the GOP catches up. Pennsylvania is a lot like the nation. Cities on the left and right and rural/flyover in between. Well, Pittsburgh, I’ve read, has been turning red now the last few years. Either way… I have seen it over and over as I watch returns… the Dem count is massive at first and then the GOP comes in strong in the end. But will it be strong enough.. hard to say.
When Tom Ridge was running, he was losing in the beginning.. but he won by then end. Just one example.
JellyToast on November 3, 2012 at 9:30 AM
PA Voter ID Law: Philthadelphians hardest hit
petefrt on November 3, 2012 at 9:41 AM
Really? In 2010, I thought Toomey had it in the bag early in the night. By the end of the night, I was biting my fingernails.
The Count on November 3, 2012 at 9:43 AM
Yeah, really. There are always exceptions but was Toomey ahead in the beginning. I’ve lived here all my life and this is the way it is. Philly and Scranton/Wilks-barre bring in heavy Democrat counts. Then the center if the state pours in.. which is mostly heavy Republican. Then in the end.. you have Pittsburg and Erie. But the rural areas come in slowly. They are heavy Republican.
JellyToast on November 3, 2012 at 10:06 AM
York and Lancaster counties did not report most of their votes untill Philly was in. He netted almost 1000,000 votes in those two counties.
And out in Pittsburgh, Corbett actually won Allegheny County (Pittsburgh). He won it outright and I think Sestak netted about 30,000 out of the formor Democrat stronghold against Toomey.
forest on November 3, 2012 at 10:11 AM
Okay, I’ve found comments by both Howard and Libby so I assume they are okay.
Blake on November 3, 2012 at 12:03 PM