I have not heard any compelling argument for Democratic turnout to match let along exceed 2008. Bush fatigue, Obama as the light bringer, the first black president, McCain’s bizarre suspension of his campaign — all of the momentum and excitement was on the side of the Democrats in 2008.
This year we have a still-stagnant economy, foreign policy in flames, deeply unpopular Obamacare, religious leaders furious at the president, Obama abandoning the center and no longer viewed as the political messiah he was thought to be, plus a Republican candidate who has plenty of money, a unified party, and a high-tech and engaged ground game.
Unmotivated Democrat voters no longer have “History” to pull them to the polls. And all of these polls showing Obama with a lead have Romney winning independents. The circumstances just don’t add up to a wave for the incumbent.