“Chances are if we win Ohio independents by six, we win the state”
Portman studied the screen. What about those? I asked. Romney’s pollster, Neil Newhouse, has said the race is essentially dead even in the campaign’s internal surveys. But on the screen, there was poll after poll showing the president ahead, if only by a little.
“Most of them that are outside of one or two points either way oversampled Democrats compared to what we expect this year,” Portman answered. “Some of them even oversampled as to what we had in 2008, which no one believes is accurate.”…
In Ohio, with just a few days before the election, there is a bitter fight going on over independent voters. The Romney camp maintains, correctly, that Romney is leading among independents in nearly all state polls. The recent Quinnipiac/New York Times survey, for example, which showed Obama leading overall by five points, also showed Romney winning independents by six.
Team Romney argued that something was wrong with the poll because with both parties about even, independents will decide the race. “Chances are if we win Ohio independents by six, we win the state,” pollster Newhouse said in an email exchange. “Period.”
Blowback
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count it.
See you Tuesday, champ.
ted c on November 2, 2012 at 10:07 AM
even by 5….
runner on November 2, 2012 at 10:08 AM
KABAMM
hawkdriver on November 2, 2012 at 10:09 AM
Cannot wait for Tuesday…
OmahaConservative on November 2, 2012 at 10:09 AM
Still in full Eeyore mode, but I see more logic in what Portman says than Axelrod. Just not seeing how Obama can lose Republicans by a bigger margin than Romney loses democrats, and loses independents, but still wins. Least not in any fair way.
Zaggs on November 2, 2012 at 10:17 AM
I’m sure the Independents will go to Barry since an uptick in unemployment is such great, great economic news. We went from 7.8% to 7.9% unemployment — that’s a recovery, people. That’s a recovery.
FORWARD!111!!!!
Punchenko on November 2, 2012 at 10:24 AM
Kuntie –
A half a trillion dollars of “savings” in 0bamacare was counted twice (Kathleen Sebelius testified in front of congress that this is true).
0bama has racked up $6 trillion dollars in new debt in 4 years.
The Stimulus has not created one lasting good paying job, and your boy even admitted that it was a failure by saying words to the effect of “Gee, I guess those shovel-ready jobs really weren’t there.”
And you say Romney has a math problem? Your boy needs to enroll in the third grade and take some remedial arithmetic.
Better yet, let’s just put him out to pasture and elect a man to do the job that 0bama has failed to do.
UltimateBob on November 2, 2012 at 10:30 AM
Hey guys, Anyone concerned about the Rasmussen daily tracking numbers heading into the weekend? Today it’s at 48-48. That’s a big switch from the 4-point advantage Romney had last week. Rove says the historical data show presidents can expect a 1% increase over what the final polls say heading into the election. That gives Obama 49%, if Rasmussen is accurate, and if the numbers hold steady on Election Day. I dunno ’bout you, but that’s way too close for comfort.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
JukeJointJoe on November 2, 2012 at 10:53 AM
Juke, that’s very disturbing information and I’ve harped on it in another thread on Debbie Downer.
Independents moving TOWARD Obamao is also very disconcerting. I don’t like it at all and predict that Obama holds office.
This will be the same as the 1996 election where we thought Clinton was vulnerable and he wasn’t.
JP1986UM on November 2, 2012 at 11:07 AM
“..WASH OFF THE B.O. ON NOVEMBER 6th!”
The War Planner on November 2, 2012 at 11:07 AM
Crossover voters going toward Romney. Evens out in the end. Obama is toast.
Mitsouko on November 2, 2012 at 11:14 AM
Too funny. A new tactic. One Moby jumps immediately on a thread to push down GOP enthusiasm and the other moby follows to “respond” and say – gee, you are right and on top of that, all the indies are going to Obama.
You guys are something.
Monkeytoe on November 2, 2012 at 11:23 AM
Monkeytoe, “Moby”? FYI, I’m voting Romney next Tuesday. I hope Rasmussen is wrong about the momentum turnaround. But their polls historically have been fairly accurate, and the latest daily tracking numbers are not exactly encouraging 4 days before the election. My hope is the numbers stay at 48-48, which, if Rove is correct, will result in a 51-49 Romney victory. But I’m not taking a Romney win for granted, nor am I so confident as to say a win for our guy is inevitable.
JukeJointJoe on November 2, 2012 at 11:48 AM
davidk on November 2, 2012 at 11:52 AM
Wow, just wow. An attempt to push down enthusiasm….on a vastly conservative board…I mean, what are there like….3 token libs who troll this board? I am calling this as I see it and I see definitive movement AWAY from Romney and toward Obama. Despite the claim, there is no massive crossover vote going to Romney, its just a fable. If you believe it, fine. But as of RIGHT NOW, I see Obama holding on to win OH and WI cutting off Romney’s midwest strategy. The caveat here is that Obama has never broken 50% in OH except for a few transient polls which were, likely, outliers.
Witness that we are losing Mandel and Murdock show himself in the face. Another S. Angle special due to unvetted and incompetent behind-the-scenes politico’s. Frankly the RNC sucks and they need to be dissolved and remade. Catering to the establishment is why we are where we are. In one word: Will Romney raise the debt ceiling as much as Obama? yes or no.
JP1986UM on November 2, 2012 at 12:38 PM