269-269?
Under the U.S. Constitution, in the event of an Electoral College tie, the presidential race is turned over to the House of Representatives (assuming no unexpected defections when the electors formally vote in December). And here’s the twist: Each state would get just one vote, based on what the majority of its own delegation decides. A candidate would thus need 26 votes to win. …
The Washington Examiner took a detailed look at current House delegations and considered the range of realistic outcomes in this year’s Congressional elections, including changes due to reapportionment. By our estimates, Romney should have at least 26 states safely, with Obama having at least 13 and 11 states up in the air, pending the outcome of the Congressional elections. …
The remaining states we gave to Romney (Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) may not be as obvious to readers at first blush, because several of them are likely to vote for Obama. But a closer look at the breakdown of these states’ House delegations shows why they should be considered solidly Romney. For instance, in Pennsylvania, Republicans hold 12 of the state’s 19 House seats, but the state lost a seat following the results of the 2010 Census. The district eliminated was a Democratic one. Democrats are unlikely to make up a six-seat gap in such a close election year. In fact, the Rothenberg Political Report only sees two of Pennsylvania’s Republican seats as competitive, and gives Republicans the edge in both.
Blowback
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just what the country needs.
rob verdi on October 13, 2012 at 8:56 AM
Romney might win Florida. Ohio will be tough. I don’t see him winning Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.
SoulGlo on October 13, 2012 at 8:58 AM
Before the first debate I would have believed it could happen; now? Not so much.
RCP has PA as a toss up. It’s not going to be a tie.
B Man on October 13, 2012 at 8:58 AM
This election will not even be close.
Pork-Chop on October 13, 2012 at 8:59 AM
269, as in the number of “ZOMG! What if teh electrical collage tied?!” articles I’ve seen this cycle.
Gingotts on October 13, 2012 at 9:01 AM
Perhaps 469 “to 69″ is what they meant…Romney landslide..
hillsoftx on October 13, 2012 at 9:05 AM
Try 322 to 216. That’s how I see it ending up.
wccawa on October 13, 2012 at 9:06 AM
What he (or she) said.
fegerter on October 13, 2012 at 9:08 AM
Oy. How’s that reading comprehension class going?
BuckeyeSam on October 13, 2012 at 9:08 AM
PA is 12-7 Republican advantage with 2 WPA DINOs, one of which was reapportioned out of a seat who may flip to R if he wants a political future. Romney would win PA.
Having said that, many legs will be broken if this scenario comes up. If they can get a the chief justice of the SCOTUS to change a vote, anything can happen.
forest on October 13, 2012 at 9:10 AM
I think Roney will win New Hampshire and Ohio. A tie is not going to happen.
Jason Taylor Sacked You on October 13, 2012 at 9:10 AM
Scott Walker’s re-election indicates otherwise.
MadisonConservative on October 13, 2012 at 9:10 AM
Are these being written by the same people who were pushing a brokered RNC?
wargamer6 on October 13, 2012 at 9:12 AM
I think Romney has an excellent chance of taking Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania. I guess it depends on which polls or tea leaves you read.
wccawa on October 13, 2012 at 9:13 AM
All in favor of $5 gas, vote for Obama.
That few? Yeah, that’s what I thought.
beatcanvas on October 13, 2012 at 9:13 AM
If Tuesday’s debate just ends up a draw(although I expect Romney to get the better of the idiot marxist again) then it’s all over for the marxist. Romney will mop the floor with him in the third debate.
bgibbs1000 on October 13, 2012 at 9:17 AM
Weren’t these the same people telling us like a month ago “It’s over. It’s over. Obama in a landslide. Romney might as well give up…”
Now their BEST scenario is a tie.
Amazing what a few weeks can do, don’t you think?
UnderstandingisPower on October 13, 2012 at 9:20 AM
Same here.
Because it’s a town hall format, I think the O Team will try something sneaky. Expect “plants” asking Romney about why he hates womyn & Big Bird, what’s up with his “magic underwear”, & how can he sleep at night with so much money.
Obama will get the usual “why are you so freakin’ awesome?” type of questions.
conservative pilgrim on October 13, 2012 at 9:22 AM
And you don’t think this will backfire? As I understand it, he flopped the first time because all he had to do was show up and show his pretty face, he didn’t need to prepare. Reports are he thought he won the first one.
Marcus on October 13, 2012 at 9:30 AM
Shut up jerk.
SoulGlo on October 13, 2012 at 9:32 AM
Obama is in the process of imploding. This won’t be a tie.
bitsy on October 13, 2012 at 9:35 AM
I never said it would serve Obama well. Why so combative Marcus?
I expect the O Team, which includes the moderator, to maximize their chances with the town hall format. If Romney uses the strategy of the first debate and takes it to Obama, then Romney wins. He needs to stay sharp.
conservative pilgrim on October 13, 2012 at 9:42 AM
As of yesterday the RCP Averages have Ohio and Wisconsin as being within the margin of error. Tied.
Del Dolemonte on October 13, 2012 at 9:42 AM
It won’t be a tie, and even if it were, there is a Maine Congressional district that has Romney ahead.
txmomof6 on October 13, 2012 at 10:01 AM
Poll: Romney leads Obama in Maine congressional district
steebo77 on October 13, 2012 at 10:27 AM
..at least the article is not by that nutless wonder with a bad haircut, Byron York. That guy is a vomit-inducing stiff.
While a devotee of Romney, I weary of these inside-the-beltway RINO types who write articles like this to keep their place on the inside-the-beltway cocktail party invite A-list intact. A number of these eunuchs show up on Greta’s pathetic pool-boy lover “See No Evil/Hear No Evil/Speak No Evil” cabal at the 45:00 mark of her nightly show.
Beyond tedious.
The War Planner on October 13, 2012 at 10:44 AM
This idea gets trotted out every four years. It’s extremely unlikely and the only reason to bring it up is to drive page views and comments during a slow news cycle. That’s right, I said it.
dczombie on October 13, 2012 at 10:45 AM
That would pretty much end any 269-269 scenario unless Obama somehow hangs onto that single EV in Nebraska.
Doughboy on October 13, 2012 at 10:48 AM
The RINO will lose. Simple as that.
nottakingsides on October 13, 2012 at 11:03 AM
Michigan sends more GOP members to the House than dems by a factor of 2 to 1 so in the event of an unlikely electoral tie, MI goes red in the vote.
karenhasfreedom on October 13, 2012 at 11:13 AM
Romney/Biden
Schadenfreude on October 13, 2012 at 11:34 AM
Here’s another idea.
1. Obama popular, Romney electoral win and the left will riot.
2. The reverse, the right just goes home and shuts up.
Schadenfreude on October 13, 2012 at 11:35 AM
Any discussion of the House vote is an amusing irrelevance. There is no chance whatsoever that the Electoral College vote will be 269-269. None.
I’m not saying the state-by-state vote on Nov. 6th can’t be tied. That’s unlikely but plausible. But the Electoral College vote on Dec. 17th absolutely will not result in a tie. Why not? Because if the Election Day vote is tied, the Democrat-media complex will have six weeks to go through the records, public and private, of each and every one of those 269 Romney electors, looking for leverage.
All it takes is one Romney elector secretly having an affair, or embezzling from his employer, or cheating on his taxes. Just one Romney elector who runs a business that could be shut down by an audit or a rejected permit. Just one Romney elector in the middle of a custody dispute. Just one Romney elector who wants a free trip to George Clooney’s Lake Como villa. Just one Romney elector ready to retire to Belize with $100 million of Soros’ money. Just one Ronulan sleeper agent ready to trigger his electoral suicide vest.
No, with the stakes so high, with so much attention focused for so long on so many people, it’s unimaginable that not a single one of them will defect. A 269-269 tie on Nov. 6th is a 270-268 Obama win on Dec. 17th. You can bet your mortgage payment on it.
Fabozz on October 13, 2012 at 11:38 AM
By your reaction I see he drew blood.
chemman on October 13, 2012 at 12:10 PM