An unsympathetic look at the numbers shows the Blue Dogs could suffer further losses. If Roll Call’s race ratings bear out — that is, if all races leaning Democratic swing that way and vice versa — the group is looking at a ceiling of 19 members.

That is only true if the party wins all of its Tossup races. If it loses those, membership could dwindle to as few as 14 members to start the 113th Congress.

Blue Dog Co-Chairman for Communications Mike Ross (Ark.) said not to count out his candidates.

“I think there’s going to be a lot of surprises,” said the six-term lawmaker who will retire at the end of the year, almost certainly leaving his district in Republican hands. “2010 was the worst year for Democrats in 70 years, and we lost a lot of Members. But anyone that could survive 2010 certainly will not have a problem surviving 2012.”