Gallup’s chief economist: The big drop in the unemployment rate should be discounted
His bottom line: “The Household results should be discounted. … The obvious conclusion is that a new employment measure is needed.”
Jacobe’s preferred measure is one Gallup has created, Payroll to Population, or P2P. It is simply “the number of Americans employed full-time for an employer as a percentage of the U.S. population.” P2P is based on 30,000 phone interviews a month. And what did the P2P show for September? This: “The P2P deteriorated slightly to 45.1% in September from 45.3% in August, suggesting the real jobs situation was essentially unchanged last month.”
Here’s why I like this idea: The Gallup measure more or less reflects — accurately I think — what we see in other broad measures such as the labor force participation rate and the civilian-employment ratio. They show a depressed labor market, not one suddenly gaining huge momentum.